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  • Verona, Fabio; Martins, Manuel M. F.; Drumond, Inês (2013)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2013
    Published in International Journal of Central Banking, Volume 9, Number 3, September 2013, Pages 73-117 ; http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb13q3a3.htm
    Motivated by the U.S. events of the 2000s, we address whether a too low for too long interest rate policy may generate a boom-bust cycle. We simulate anticipated and unanticipated monetary policies in state-of-the-art DSGE models and in a model with bond financing via a shadow banking system, in which the bond spread is calibrated for normal and optimistic times. Our results suggest that the U.S. boom-bust was caused by the combination of (i) interest rates that were too low for too long, (ii) excessive optimism and (iii) a failure of agents to anticipate the extent of the abnormally favourable conditions. Keywords: DSGE model, shadow banking system, too low for too long, boom-bust JEL codes: E32, E44, E52, G24
  • Kiema, Ilkka; Jokivuolle, Esa (2013)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2013
    The aim of the Internal Ratings Based Approach (IRBA) of Basel II was that capital suffices for unexpected losses with at least a 99.9% probability. However, because only a fraction of the required regulatory capital (a quarter to a half) had to be loss absorbing capital, the actual bank solvency probabilities may have been much lower, as the global financial crisis illustrates. Our estimates suggest that under Basel II IRBA the loss-absorbing capital of an average-quality portfolio bank suffices for unexpected losses with a 95%-99% probability. This translates into an expected bank failure rate as high as once in twenty years. Even if the bank s interest income is incorporated into our model, the expected failure rate is still substantial. We show that the expected failure rate increases with loan portfolio riskiness. Our calculations may be viewed as a measure of regulatory "self-delusion" included in Basel II capital requirements. Keywords: capital requirements, Internal Ratings Based Approach, Basel II,financial crisis.
  • Bask, Mikael (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2007
    Published in International Journal of Finance and Economics, Volume 19, Issue 2, March 2014, Pages 140-159
    The aim of this paper is to determine whether it would be desirable from the perspective of macroeconomic balance for central banks to take account of nominal exchange rate movements when framing monetary policy. The theoretical framework is a small, open DSGE economy that is closed by a Taylor rule for the monetary authority, and a determinate REE that is least-squares learnable is defined as a desirable outcome in the economy. When the policy rule contains contemporaneous data on the output gap and the CPI inflation rate, the monetary authority does not have to consider the exchange rate as long as there is sufficient inertia in policy-making. In fact, due to a parity condition on the international asset market, interest-rate smoothing and a response to changes in the nominal exchange rate are perfectly intersubstitutable in monetary policy. In other words, we give a rationale for the monetary authority to focus on the change in the nominal interest rate rather than its level in policy-making. Thus, we have a case for interest-rate smoothing. Keywords: determinacy, E-stability, foreign exchange, inertia, Taylor rule JEL classification numbers: E52, F31
  • Marzo, Massimiliano; Romagnoli, Silvia; Zagaglia, Paolo (2008)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2008
    We study the term structure implications of the fiscal theory of price level determination. We introduce the intertemporal budget constraint of the government in a general equilibrium model in continuous time. Fiscal policy is set according to a simple rule whereby taxes react proportionally to real debt. We show how to solve for the prices of real and nominal zero coupon bonds. Keywords: bond pricing, fiscal policy, mathematical methods JEL classification numbers: D9, G12
  • Taipalus, Katja (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2006
    The dividend yield ratio in the stock markets is, to an extent, comparable to the rent-price ratio in the housing market.Taking advantage of this definitional similarity, one can then use the traditional unit root test for log dividend yield in this case, the log rent-price ratio to test for the existence of real estate bubbles.Such unit root tests are conducted for Finland, USA, UK, Spain and Germany, and the simple test results strongly suggest the existence of bubbles in nearly all of these countries.In addition to this, we develop a continuous and monthly rent-price information-based method to track the periods when real estate prices diverge from their fundamental levels.This indicator seems to work quite well in most cases, indicating bubbles during periods which, according to the consensus literature, are seen as periods of sizable upward or downward shifts in house prices. Key words: house price, bubble, unit root JEL classification numbers: G12
  • Holm, Pasi; Honkapohja, Seppo; Koskela, Erkki (1990)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/1990
    The paper formulates a model of wage determination in accordance with the notion of a monopoly union determining wages after which the firm decides on employment. The novelty is to incorporate investment and capital decisions by firms. In the theoretical part the subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium and its comparative statics for wages, capital stock and employment are characterized in various cases.
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Schultz, Aaron (2010)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2010
    Convergence and synchronisation of business and growth cycles are important issues in the efficient formulation of euro area economic policies, and in particular European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. Although several studies in the economics literature address the issue of synchronicity of growth within the euro area, this is the first to address the issue using cross recurrence analysis. The main findings are that member state growth rates had largely converged before the introduction of the euro, but there is a wide degree of different synchronisation behaviours which appear to be non-linear in nature. Many of the euro area member states display what is termed here intermittency in synchronization, although this is not consistent across countries or members of the euro area. These differences in synchronization behaviors could introduce further challenges in managing the country-specific effects of the common monetary policy in the euro area. Keywords: Euro area, business cycles, growth cycles, recurrence plots, nonstationarity, complex systems, surrogate analysis. JEL classification numbers: C65, E32, F15 Note: A previous shortened version of the second part of this paper was previously published as Crowley (2008).
  • Nyberg, Peter; Vaihekoski, Mika (2009)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2009
    This paper presents a new monthly value-weighted, all-share total return index for the Finnish stock market. The index covers the period from the establishment of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in October 1912 to the beginning of 1970, after which the WI index by Berglund et al (1983) and later in December 1990, the Exchange s own HEX index are available. When combined, these can be used to study the development of the Finnish equity market without a break from the beginning of the stock market until the present day. We also provide a detailed description of the construction methodology and a comparison between our index and those available earlier. The new index replaces the Unitas price index, which has been the only index available for long-term studies from 1928 onwards. The new index also provides an alternative to the book equity weighted Poutvaara (1996) price index for the period 1912 1929.
  • Virén, Matti (1990)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/1990
    This note presents new evidence on Finnish property criminality. The analysis is based on Earlichls (1973) model; the empirical an~lysis makes use af annual Finnish data for the period 1951 - 1986. The estimation results strongly support the notion that both the appreh~nsion rate and the severity of punishment have a strong deterrence effect on larcenies and robberies.
  • Virén, Matti (1989)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/1989
    This paper presents some analyses of interest rate determination in six industrialized countries during the Great Depression. The main finding of the paper is that the huge real interest rate shocks experienced during that time were mainly due to policy actions by central banks.
  • Mehrotra, Aaron (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2007
    We examine developments in national contributions to euro area M3 for a sample of nine euro area countries during 1999-2005.We investigate the co-movements of national contributions with euro area M3 and discuss possible reasons for divergencies in growth rates of national contributions.Finally, we evaluate the information content of national contributions to M3 using formal tests of causality between monetary aggregates, consumer prices and equity prices. Key words: national contribution, M3, euro area JEL classification numbers: E51, E31
  • Kortela, Tomi (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2016
    Typically a constant – or zero – lower bound for interest rates is applied in shadow rate term structure models. However, euro area yield curve data suggest that a time-varying lower bound might be appropriate for the euro area. I show that this indeed is the case, i.e. a shadow rate model with time-varying lower bound outperforms the constant lower bound model in euro area data. I argue that the time-variation in the lower bound is related to the deposit facility rate and, thus, to monetary policy. This time-variation in the lower bound gives a new channel via which monetary policy may affect the yield curve in a shadow rate model. I show that the intensity of this channel depends on how tightly the lower bound restricts the yield curve, and I argue that this channel has recently become important for the euro area.
  • Vuorenmaa, Tommi A. (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2005
    This paper investigates the dependence of average stock market volatility on the timescale or on the time interval used to measure price changes, which dependence is often referred to as the scaling law.Scaling factor, on the other hand, refers to the elasticity of the volatility measure with respect to the timescale.This paper studies, in particular, whether the scaling factor differs from the one in a simple random walk model and whether it has remained stable over time.It also explores possible underlying reasons for the observed behaviour of volatility in terms of heterogeneity of stock market players and periodicity of intraday volatility.The data consist of volatility series of Nokia Oyj at the Helsinki Stock Exchange at five minute frequency over the period from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2002.The paper uses wavelet methods to decompose stock market volatility at different timescales.Wavelet methods are particularly well motivated in the present context due to their superior ability to describe local properties of times series.The results are, in general, consistent with multiscaling in Finnish stock markets.Furthermore, the scaling factor and the long-memory parameters of the volatility series are not constant over time, nor consistent with a random walk model.Interestingly, the evidence also suggests that, for a significant part, the behaviour of volatility is accounted for by an intraday volatility cycle referred to as the New York effect. Long-memory features emerge more clearly in the data over the period around the burst of the IT bubble and may, consequently, be an indication of irrational exuberance on the part of investors. Key words: long-memory, scaling, stock market, volatility, wavelets JEL classification numbers: C14, C22
  • Francis, Bill; Hasan, Iftekhar; Li, Lingxiang (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2014
    Published in Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Volume 46, Issue 2, February 2016: 217–260
    We study the impact of firms' abnormal business operations on their future crash risk in stock prices. Computed based on real earnings management (REM) models, firms' deviation in real operations from industry norms (DRO) is shown to be positively associated with their future crash risk. This association is incremental to that between discretionary accruals (DA) and crash risk found by prior studies. Moreover, after Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) of 2002, DRO's predictive power for crash risk strengthens substantially, while DA's predictive power essentially dissipates. These results are consistent with the prior finding that managers shift from accrual earnings management (AEM) to REM after SOX. We further develop a suspect-firm approach to capture firms' use of DRO for REM purposes. This analysis shows that REM-firms experience a significant increase in crash risk in the following year. These findings suggest that the impact of DRO on crash risk is at least partially through REM.
  • Drehmann, Mathias; Juselius, Mikael; Korinek, Anton (2017)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2017
    When taking on new debt, borrowers commit to a pre-specified path of future debt service. This implies a predictable lag between credit booms and peaks in debt service which, in a panel of household debt in 17 countries, is four years on average. The lag is driven by two key features of the data: (i) new borrowing is strongly auto-correlated and (ii) debt contracts are long term. The delayed increase in debt service following an impulse to new borrowing largely explains why credit booms are associated with lower future output growth and higher probability of crisis. This provides a systematic transmission channel whereby credit expansions can have adverse long-lasting real effects.
  • Bask, Mikael (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2006
    Published in European Financial Management, 14, No. 1, 2008, Pages 99-117
    It is demonstrated in this paper that adaptive learning in least squares sense may be incapable to reduce, in a satisfactory way, the number of attainable equilibria in a rational expectations model.The model investigated, as an illustration, is the monetary approach to exchange rate determination that is augmented with technical trading in the currency market in the form of moving averages since it is the most commonly used technique according to questionnaire surveys.Because of technical trading in foreign exchange, the current exchange rate is dependent on jmax lags of the exchange rate, and the model has, therefore jmax + 1 nonbubble rational expectations equilibria (REE), where most of them are adaptively learnable.However, by assuming that a solution to the model should have a solution to a nested model as its limit, it is possible to single out a unique equilibrium among the adaptively learnable equilibria that is economically meaningful.Key words: asset pricing, heterogenous agents, least squares learnability, rational expectations equilibria and technical trading JEL classification numbers: C62, F31, G12
  • Kortelainen, Mika (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2007
    We present a two country DGE model and estimate it using Bayesian techniques and euro area and US quarterly data for 1977 2004. In analysing the current accounts we find that a lower US rate of time preference or a higher dollar risk premium could render the deficit sustainable, but that these could push the interest rate to the zero bound. Secondly, we find that fiscal policy is not sufficiently effective to improve the current account although the zero bound is not hit. Key words: current account, zero bound, policy coordination JEL classification numbers: E61, F32
  • Takalo, Tuomas; Tanayama, Tanja (2008)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2008
    Published in Journal of Technology Transfer, Volume 35, Number 1, February 2010: 16-41
    We study the interaction between private and public funding of innovative projects in the presence of adverse-selection based financing constraints. Government programmes allocating direct subsidies are based on ex-ante screening of the subsidy applications. This selection scheme may yield valuable information to market-based financiers. We find that under certain conditions, public R&D subsidies can reduce the financing constraints of technology-based entrepreneurial firms. Firstly, the subsidy itself reduces the capital costs related to innovation projects by reducing the amount of market-based capital required. Secondly, the observation that an entrepreneur has received a subsidy for an innovation project provides an informative signal to market-based financiers. We also find that public screening works more efficiently if it is accompanied by subsidy allocation. Keywords: adverse selection, innovation finance, financial constraints, R&D subsidies, certification JEL classification numbers: D82, G28, H20, O30, O38
  • Saarenheimo, Tuomas (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2005
    The median age of the global population is presently increasing by nearly three months every year.Over the next couple of decades, almost every country in the world is set to experience an unprecedented increase in the share of elderly population.This development has the potential to fundamentally affect the functioning of economic and financial systems globally.This study concentrates on the effects of ageing on the evolution of global interest rates and financial flows.The study uses a 73-cohort general equilibrium overlapping generations model of five major economic areas (USA, EU-15, Japan, China, and India).Utilising actual population data and UN population projections, the model yields predictions for major economic and financial variables up to 2050.The model predicts a decline in global equilibrium real interest rates over the next two decades, but the size of the decline depends crucially on the future evolution of public pension benefits.If the present generosity of pension systems is maintained - leading to a steep increase in the cost of the pension systems - the maximum decline of interest rates is projected to be about 70 basis points from present levels.If pension benefits are reduced to offset the increasing cost pressures, the decline in global equilibrium interest rates can be much larger, while increases in the retirement age work in the opposite direction.The results do not anticipate a 'financial market meltdown' - a collapse in asset prices associated with the retirement of the baby-boomers - predicted by some.On the contrary, bond prices should fare fairly well over the next three decades.The main reason for this is that increasing life expectancy at retirement creates a need for higher retirement saving - in the future, people will want to retire wealthier than they do today.This trend more than offsets the negative effect of the retirement of baby-boomers on asset demand.Key words: Ageing, real interest rates, financial flows, public pension systems JEL classification numbers: J11, E44
  • Carlino, Gerald; Kerr, William R. (2015)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2015
    This paper reviews academic research on the connections between agglomeration and innovation. We first describe the conceptual distinctions between invention and innovation. We then discuss how these factors are frequently measured in the data and note some resulting empirical regularities. Innovative activity tends to be more concentrated than industrial activity, and we discuss important findings from the literature about why this is so. We highlight the traits of cities (e.g., size, industrial diversity) that theoretical and empirical work link to innovation, and we discuss factors that help sustain these features (e.g., the localization of entrepreneurial finance).