Browsing by Subject "Aasia"

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  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Weill, Laurent (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2014
    Financial inclusion contributes to economic growth and poverty reduction. We examine financial inclusion levels in twelve Asian countries. To do so, we utilize data from the World Bank Global Findex database for 2011. We find large cross-country differences for the three main indicators of financial inclusion (ownership of a bank account, savings on a bank account, use of bank credit) and observe that ownership of a bank account is more common in high-income countries. However, the pattern of financial inclusion in terms of saving on a bank account or using formal credit differs across countries and is not related to per capita income. There are nonetheless major similarities in the motives for financial exclusion and in the alternative sources of borrowing in Asian countries. Voluntary financial exclusion is more prominent than involuntary exclusion, the main reason being lack of money. We also find that borrowing from family or friends is the most common way of obtaining credit and that relying on alternative private lenders is quite limited.
  • Mehrotra, Aaron (2007)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Asiantuntijan näkemys 2/2007
  • Lukkarila, Johanna (2003)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 3/2003
    Monet maat ovat 1990-luvun alun jälkeen luopuneet kiinteän mutta ajoittain muutettavan valuuttakurssin järjestelmästä.Tässä työssä arvioidaan, miten Aasian tapahtumien jälkeen kehitellyt niin kutsutut kolmannen sukupolven valuuttakriisimallit selittävät Aasian kriisiä.Lisäksi teorioita ja Aasian tapahtumia verrataan Venäjän ja Turkin viimeisiin rahoituskriiseihin.Tarkastelu osoittaa, etteivät perinteiset teoriat ole menettäneet merkitystään kriisien selittäjinä.Uusia malleja ja mallien yhdistämistä kuitenkin tarvitaan, sillä viimeaikaisiin kriiseihin on yhä useammin liittynyt sekä pankki- että valuuttakriisien piirteitä.Avain-sanat: valuuttakriisit, pankkikriisit, kehittyvät markkinat, Aasia, Turkki, Venäjä JEL-luokittelu: F31, F32, F41
  • Herrala, Risto (2018)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    While the Caucasian and Central Asian (CCA) regions host ethnically and culturally diverse populations, and are difficult to traverse due to the challenging geography, the countries have a long history of political and economic integration. Much of the region was ruled by Timur in the 14th to 16th centuries and, after being separated by Persian invasion in Caucasus and Chinese invasion in Central Asia, the Russian invasion in the 1700’s brought the two again under a shared rule. Subsequently, the CCA became part of the Soviet Union, and the national borders of today were to a large extent drawn during that era as the borders of the Soviet national republics.
  • Marconi, Daniela (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2017
    Published in Pacific Economic Review, 23, 2, 2018, 150–163
    The internationalization of China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB) bolsters the growing economic and political influence of China in the Asia-Pacific region. This paper assesses the evolution of RMB exchange rate co-movements against the US dollar (USD) within the region. While the RMB’s influence is growing, it is also found to be asymmetric and varying over time depending on the global movement of the USD. The trend is strong when the USD depreciates, but fades when the USD appreciates.
  • Komulainen, Tuomas (2001)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001
    This study shows that due to herding behaviour and possible capital outflows, emerging market countries are vulnerable to multiple equilibria situations and currency crises.It uses a model by Jeanne (1997), where currency crises can be formed by multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling expectations.We determine the country fundamentals according to balance of payments approach.In this study we introduce capital flows, which depend from crisis probability, into the model.The capital flows are further assumed to follow herding behaviour, which produces a reason and mechanism for the large capital outflows witnessed during the recent crises. The range of country fundamentals, where self-fulfilling crises are possible, is now larger than without capital flows and herding behaviour.Consequently, the country fundamentals have to be better, if the country wants to stay totally out of crises.The model further points out lender interdependence as one shortcoming in the current structure of international capital markets.An empirical application of the model to the Mexican and Asian crises shows that when the possible capital outflows are included, the fundamentals of most emerging market countries were inside the range of multiple equilibria in 1994 and 1996, and so self-fulfilling crises were possible.
  • Fang, Ying; Huang, Shicheng; Niu, Linlin (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2012
    We employ Bayesian method to estimate a time-varying coefficient version of the de facto currency basket model of Frankel and Wei (2007) for the RMB of China, using daily data from February 2005 to July 2011. We estimate jointly the implicit time-varying weights of all 11 currencies in the reference basket announced by the Chinese government. We find the dollar weight has been reduced and sometimes significantly smaller than one, but there is no evidence of systematic operation of a currency basket with discernable pattern of significant weights on other currencies. During specific periods, the reduced dollar weight has not been switched to other major international currencies, but to some East Asian currencies, which is hard to explain by trade importance to or trade competition with China. We examine currency baskets of these East Asian Economies, including major international currencies and the RMB in their baskets. We find an evident tendency of Malaysia and Singapore to increase the weights of RMB in their own currency baskets, and a steadily and significantly positive weight of RMB in the basket of Thailand. These evidences suggest that, the positive weights of some East Asian currencies in RMB currency basket during specific periods largely reflect the fact that these East Asia economies have been systematically placing greater weights on RMB under the new regime of RMB exchange rate. Keywords: RMB currency basket, time-varying regressions, East Asia, China, US JEL Classification: F31, F41, C11
  • Fromlet, Hubert (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 15/2014
    During and after the Central Committee’s Third Plenum in November 2013, China announced far-reaching reforms in the spheres of marketization and economic deregulation that included financial markets. While the speed of the rollout of China’s planned reforms is still unknown, officials repeatedly reference the great opportunities for guiding China onto a healthier, more sustainable social and economic track. The risks of such ambitious marketization and deregulation plans need to be considered in the context of speed and sequencing of reforms of the financial sector. We currently lack the skills for overcoming the famously low predictability of financial crises. The areas for skill improvement largely relate to market psychology (behavioral finance) and the understanding of history and macrofinancial aggregates. The much-undervalued discipline of behavioral finance has started to come into its own over the past 10 to 15 years, including the awarding of the 2013 Nobel Prize Robert in Economics to Robert Shiller for his efforts at understanding the psychology of financial markets. This year’s Nobel Prize winner, Jean Tirole, also considers behavioral aspects in his work. Sweden has had two serious banking crises in the past 30 years. The first – and most serious – crisis occurred in the early 1990s, while a smaller crisis took place at the end of the last decade. Both were foreseeable. The first crisis emerged as Swedish banking entered uncharted deregulation waters, a situation Chinese reformers will themselves inevitably confront. Swedish research findings with respect to sequencing, speed of reforms and behavioral finance apply nicely to the Chinese discussion. The italicized discussion focuses on what the Swedish deregulation experience means for Chinese policy choices, but most of these observations are generally relevant for policymakers in emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere. Publication keywords: financial deregulation, Asia, Sweden
  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A.; You, Kefei (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2016
    This paper investigates whether the RMB is in the process of replacing the US dollar as the anchor currency in nine ASEAN countries, and also the linkages between the ASEAN currencies and a regional currency unit. A long-memory (fractional integration) model allowing for endogenously determined structural breaks is estimated for these purposes (Gil-Alana, 2008). The results suggest that the ASEAN currencies are much more interlinked than previously thought, whether or not breaks are taken into account, which provides support for a regional currency index as an anchor. Moreover, incorporating a break shows that the linkages between these currencies and the RMB and the US dollar respectively are equally important, and in fact in recent years the former have become stronger than the latter. Therefore including the RMB in the regional index should be considered.
  • Mayes, David G. (2008)
    Suomen Pankki. BoF online 2008/9
    This note explores the progress of financial integration in Asia by comparison with the EU. In the process of development the Asian countries have focused more on access to the main markets of the world than to each other. Only more recently after the experience of unwelcome contagion in the crises of 1997 1998 has there been a concerted effort to develop instruments to promote greater financial stability in the face of external shocks. Many initiatives are currently underway to improve regional financial integration and there is a movement to achieve monetary integration. However, the region is very heterogenous and inequalities in size and development will make full integration difficult. The process is thus likely to be drawn out but there is a clear direction
  • Mehrotra, Aaron (2007)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Expert view 2/2007
  • Koivu, Tuuli (2010)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Expert view 5/2010
  • Babecký, Jan; Komárek, Lubos; Komárková, Zlatuse (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2012
    Published in National Institute Economic Review, Volume 223, Issue 1, 2013, Pages R16-R34 as Convergence of Returns on Chinese and Russian Stock Markets with World Markets: National and Sectoral Perspectives.
    Interest in examining the financial linkages of economies has increased in the wake of the 2008/2009 global financial crisis. Applying the concepts of beta- and sigma-convergence of stock market returns, we assess changes over time in the degree of stock market integration between Russia and China as well as between them and the United States, the euro area and Japan. Our analysis is based on national and sectoral data spanning the period September 1995 to October 2010. Overall, we find evidence for gradually increasing stock market integration after the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 1998 Russian financial cri-sis. Following a major disruption caused by the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, the process of stock market integration resumes between Russia and China, and with world markets. Notably, the episode of sigma-divergence from the 2008/2009 crisis is stronger for China than Russia. We also find that the process of stock market integration and the impact of the recent crisis have not been uniform at the sectoral level, suggesting potential for d-versification of risk across sectors. JEL classification: C23, G15, G12. Keywords: Stock market integration, beta-convergence, sigma-convergence, China, Russia, sectoral and national analysis
  • Fung, K. C.; Hwang, Hsiang-Chih; Ng, Francis; Seade, Jesús (2013)
    BOFIT Online 1/2013
    Abstract 3 1 Introduction 4 2 Chinese trade in parts and components 5 3 Indian and South Asian trade in parts and components 7 4 Conclusion 9 Reference 10
  • Lehmussaari, Olli-Pekka (2015)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Viime vuosina kansainvälisessä finanssiarkkitehtuurissa on tapahtunut merkittäviä muutoksia. Vanhat rakenteet ovat vielä pystyssä, mutta niiden rinnalle on syntynyt ja syntymässä uusia rakenteita.
  • Koivu, Tuuli (2010)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Asiantuntijan näkemys 5/2010
  • Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2015
    Published in Pacific Economic Review, 23, 3, 2018, 385-410
    We summarize previous research on China’s business cycle correlation with other countries with the help of meta-analysis techniques. We survey 71 related papers along with all the characteristics of the estimations as well as those of the authors. We confirm that especially Pacific Rim countries have relatively high business cycle correlation with China. However, it appears that many characteristics of the studies and authors do influence the reported degree of business cycle synchronization. For instance, Chinese-language papers report higher correlation coefficients. Despite of this, we do not detect a robust publication bias in the papers.
  • Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka (Wiley, 2018)
    Pacific Economic Review 3
    Published in BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2015.
    We review previous research on China's business cycle correlation with other economies applying meta‐analysis. We survey 71 papers analysing the different periods of Chinese economic development since the 1950s that were published in English or Chinese. We confirm that Pacific Rim economies in particular have relatively high business cycle correlation with China. It appears that many characteristics of the studies and authors influence the reported degree of business cycle synchronization. For instance, Chinese‐language papers report higher correlation coefficients. Despite this, we do not detect robust evidence for publication bias in the papers. Moreover, we show that the broad evidence does not confirm the popular decoupling hypothesis.
  • Koivu, Tuuli (2012)
    Suomen Pankki. E 46
    China's economic development has been exceptionally robust since the end of the 1970s, and the country has already emerged as the second biggest economy in the world. In this study, we seek to illuminate the role of the monetary policy in this successful economic performance and as a part of the extensive economic reforms of the last two decades. The five empirical essays seek to discover which monetary policy tools are the most used and most effective for guiding China's economic development. In addition, we explore which monetary policy transmission channels are functioning and to what extent monetary policy impacts inflation and real economic developments in China. The results indicate that the conduct of monetary policy in China differs substantially from what is typical for an advanced market economy, where an independent central bank often aims to hit an inflation target by simply controlling the target interest rate. First, China's monetary policy toolkit is highly diverse. Besides a collection of administrated interest rates, it contains quantitative policy tools and direct guidelines. Second, China's central bank is not independent in its decision-making. For these reasons, it is exceptionally challenging to measure the monetary policy stance or to distinguish monetary policy from other macroeconomic policies in China's case. This has been taken into account in this study by using a variety of monetary-policy indicators. Our results suggest that China's monetary-policy implementation and its transmission to the real economy still rely heavily on quantitative policy tools and direct guidelines; interest rates play a much smaller role, in terms of both usage and effectiveness. Overall, our findings suggest that the direct link between monetary policy and real economic performance is weak in China. On the other hand, this study clearly shows that monetary policy has played a key role in price developments, which tells us that monetary policy has been an important factor in China's economic success. Key words: China, monetary policy, economic growth, inflation, exchange rates JEL classification: E50, P30
  • Solanko, Laura (2020)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Koko 2010-luvun yksi selkeä Venäjän politiikkatavoite on ollut ”itäkäännös”, eli huomion kääntäminen itään, kohti Aasiaa. Politiikassa itäkäännös on korostunut vuoden 2014 jälkeen, kun suhteet moniin länsimaihin ovat huonontuneet. Venäjän näkökulmasta katseen kääntäminen kohti Aasiaa on ollut järkevää sekä taloudellisesti että poliittisesti.