Browsing by Subject "C12"

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  • Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta (2021)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021
    We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are unbiased and efficient on average, however there is evidence of state dependence. In particular, the ECB tends to overpredict (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is larger when inflation is above the target. These results hold even after accounting for errors in the external assumptions. We also find evidence of inefficiency, in the form of underreaction to news, but only when inflation is above the target. Our findings bear important implications for the ECB forecasting process and ultimately for its communication strategy.
  • Laakkonen, Helinä (2004)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 24/2004
    This study investigates the impact of new information on the volatility of exchange rates.The impact of scheduled US and European macroeconomic news on the volatility of USD/EUR 5-minute returns was tested by using the Flexible Fourier Form method.The results were consistent with earlier studies.Macroeconomic news increased volatility significantly, and news on the United States was the most important.The much-tested hypothesis of bad news having a greater impact on volatility was re-confirmed in this study.The announcements were also divided into two categories, the first containing the news that gave conflicting information on the state of the economy (bad and good news at the same time) and the other containing the news that was consistent (where either good or bad news was announced).Conflicting news was found to increase volatility significantly more than consistent news.The impact of 'no-surprise' news was also tested.Even news the forecast of which was equal to an announcement seemed to increase volatility.Key words: Exchange rates, microstructure theory, volatility, news JEL classification numbers: G14, C14, C12, C22
  • Bask, Mikael; Liu, Tung; Widerberg, Anna (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2006
    Published in Physica A, 376, 2007: 565-572
    The aim of this paper is to illustrate how the stability of a stochastic dynamic system is measured using the Lyapunov exponents. Specifically, we use a feedforward neural network to estimate these exponents as well as asymptotic results for this estimator to test for unstable (chaotic) dynamics.The data set used is spot electricity prices from the Nordic power exchange market.Nord Pool, and the dynamic system that generates these prices appears to be chaotic in one case.Key words: feedforward neural network, Nord Pool, Lyapunov exponents, spot electricity prices, stochastic dynamic system JEL classification numbers: C12, C14, C22