Browsing by Subject "D12"

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  • D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael (2019)
    AEA Papers and Proceedings May
    Cognitive abilities help explain the large cross-sectional variation in inflation expectations at the household level. But which type of cognitive abilities are important? We find that not only quantitative abilities but also logical and verbal abilities are important to explain the accuracy and plausibility of households' inflation expectations. We discuss the channels through which different forms of cognition might shape households' abilities to forecast future macroeconomic variables. We also draw implications for the effectiveness of policies that aim to manage households' expectations.
  • Stanisławska, Ewa; Paloviita, Maritta; Łyziak, Tomasz (2021)
    Economics Letters September
    Published in BoF DP 10/2019 "Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey"
    We assess reliability of aggregate inflation expectations in the European Commission Consumer Survey by identifying individual responses to qualitative and quantitative questions that do not match each other. We provide evidence that micro-level inconsistencies are common in the survey data, but they distort neither the aggregate measures of inflation expectations nor the results of the analysis of expectation formation on the macro-level.
  • Herrala, Risto (2010)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2010
    I find quantitative evidence of a significant effect for credit constraints on durable consumption during a post-deregulation consumer spending spree. The effect varied markedly across age and educational groups. Young households with low levels of education displayed high sensitivity to credit conditions. In contrast, older highly educated households were relatively immune to credit market developments. Keywords: durable consumption, credit constraints, stochastic frontier analysis JEL classification numbers: D12, D91, E21
  • D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2020
    Communication targeting households and firms has become a stand-alone policy tool of many central banks. But which forms of communication, if any, can reach ordinary people and manage their economic expectations effectively? In a large-scale randomized control trial, we show that communication manages expectations when it focuses on policy targets and objectives rather than on the instruments designed to reach such objectives. It is especially the least sophisticated demographic groups, whom central banks typically struggle to reach, who react more to target-based communication. When exposed to target-based communication, these groups are also more likely to believe that policies will benefit households and the economy. Target-based communication enhances policy effectiveness and contributes to strengthen the public’s trust in central banks, which is crucial to ensure the effectiveness of their policies.
  • D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael (2021)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2021
    Many consumers below the top of the distribution of a representative population by cognitive abilities barely react to monetary and fiscal policies that aim to stimulate consumption and borrowing, even when they are financially unconstrained and despite substantial debt capacity. Differences in income, formal education levels, economic expectations, and a large set of registry-based demographics do not explain these facts. Heterogeneous cognitive abilities thus act as human frictions in the transmission of economic policies that operate through the household sector and might imply redistribution from low- to high-cognitive ability agents. We conclude by discussing how our findings inform the microfoundation of behavioral macroeconomic theory.
  • D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2019
    We use administrative and survey-based micro data to study the relationship between cognitive abilities (IQ), the formation of economic expectations, and the choices of a representative male population. Men above the median IQ (high-IQ men) display 50% lower forecast errors for inflation than other men. The inflation expectations and perceptions of high-IQ men, but not others, are positively correlated over time. High-IQ men are also less likely to round and to forecast implausible values. In terms of choice, only high-IQ men increase their propensity to consume when expecting higher inflation as the consumer Euler equation prescribes. High-IQ men are also forward-looking - they are more likely to save for retirement conditional on saving. Education levels, income, socio-economic status, and employment status, although important, do not explain the variation in expectations and choice by IQ. Our results have implications for heterogeneous-beliefs models of household consumption, saving, and investment.
  • Stanisławska, Ewa; Paloviita, Maritta (2021)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2021
    Using the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey, this paper investigates how consumers revise medium-term inflation expectations. We provide robust evidence of their adjustment to the current economic developments. In particular, consumers adjust medium-term inflation views in response to changes in short-term inflation expectations and, to a lesser degree, to changes in perceptions of current inflation. We find that the strong adverse Covid-19 pandemic shock contributed to an increase in consumer inflation expectations. We show that consumers who declare high trust in the ECB adjust their medium-term inflation expectations to a lesser degree than consumers with low trust. Our results increase understanding of expectations formation, which is an important issue for medium-term oriented monetary policy.
  • Delis, Manthos D.; Hasan, Iftekhar; Tsoumas, Chris (2019)
    Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments 2 ; May
    One explanation for the emergence of the housing market bubble and the subprime crisis is that increases in individuals’ income led to higher increases in the amount of mortgage loans demanded, especially for the middle class. This hypothesis translates to an increase in the income elasticity of mortgage loan demand before 2007. Using applicant‐level data, we test this hypothesis and find that the income elasticity of mortgage loan demand in fact declines in the years before 2007, especially for the mid‐ and lower‐middle income groups. Our finding implies that increases in house prices were not matched by increases in loan applicants’ income.