Browsing by Subject "E01"

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  • Kuboniwa, Masaaki (2016)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 10/2016
    A Soviet legacy for present-day Russia is found in its resource dependency as well as its implicit exposition of resource rents from foreign trade in the national accounting. Estimating rents from the foreign trade of oil and gas, we demonstrate how large the GDP of the oil and gas sector had been in the Soviet Union and has been in present-day Russia, as well.
  • Kerola, Eeva (2019)
    Comparative Economic Studies 3 ; September
    BOFIT DP 23/2018
    China’s official real GDP growth has held surprisingly stable in recent years. As national GDP figures influence both policy analysis and political decisions, the GDP growth rate of the Chinese economy has also great international implications. Taking the nominal GDP growth and price index data as given and experimenting with alternative deflators, this paper attempts to track missing fluctuations in real GDP growth in recent years. Real GDP growth in the constructed series decreased in 2015–2016, picked up in 2017, and again decelerated in 2018, in contrast to the rather stable official real GDP growth rates of these years. Furthermore, in recent years the constructed growth rate seems to be well below the official figures.
  • Kerola, Eeva (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2018
    Published in Comparative Economic Studies 61(3): 359-380 (2019)
    China’s official real GDP growth has held surprisingly stable in recent years. As national GDP figures influence both policy analysis and political decisions, the GDP growth rate of the massive Chinese economy has also great international implications. Taking the nominal GDP growth and price index data as given and experimenting with alternative deflators, this paper attempts to track missing fluctuations in real GDP growth in recent years. Based on the constructed growth series, real GDP growth decreased during 2015–2016 and picked up in 2017. Growth has been again decelerating this year. Furthermore, the constructed growth rate seems to be well below the recent official figures. Data available at https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/statistics/china-statistics/.
  • Kangasrääsiö, Suvi (2019)
    BoF Economics Review 5/2019
    Talouden kehitystä kuvaavat tilastoaineistot valmistuvat viiveellä, ja tilastojen lukuja tarkennetaan eli revisioidaan lähdeaineistojen täydentyessä ja tarkentuessa. Tässä artikkelissa tarkastellaan kansantalouden neljännesvuositilinpidon tavaroiden ja palveluiden tilin (entinen huoltotase) revisioita. Artikkelissa kuvaillaan Suomen bruttokansantuotteen kausitasoitetun volyymin ja sen kysyntäerien revisioita ja testataan mahdollisuuksia ennakoida revisioita. BKT:n kasvun estimaatit ovat tulosten mukaan hieman harhaisia tarkastelujakson aikana, ja revisiot ovat suurimmillaan suhdanteen käännepisteissä sekä kahdella ensimmäisellä vuosineljänneksellä. BKT:n neljännesvuosikasvun revisiot eivät ole ennakoitavissa pelkkää BKT-aineistoa käyttämällä, mutta tavaroiden ja palveluiden tilin tilastollisella erolla on jonkin verran ennustekykyä. Kysyntäeristä mittaluokaltaan suurimmat revisiot ovat voimakkaasti vaihtelevilla tuonnilla ja viennillä, mutta nettoviennin revisiot jäävät pieniksi tuonnin ja viennin tarkentuessatyypillisesti samaan suuntaan. Yksityisen kulutuksen revisiot ovat maltillisia, mutta erän suuresta koosta johtuen revisiot ovat merkittäviä kokonaiskysynnän kannalta.
  • Feldkircher, Martin (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 26/2012
    Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 43, May 2014, Pages 19-49.
    In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential explanatory factors employing techniques that are robust to model uncertainty. Four findings are of particular note. First, we find empirical evidence for the pivotal role of pre-crisis credit growth in shaping the real economy's response to the crisis. Specifically, a 1% increase in pre-crisis lending translates into a 0.2% increase in the cumulative loss in real output. Moreover, the combination of pronounced growth in lending ahead of the crisis and the country's exposure to external funding from advanced economies is shown to intensify the real downturn. Economies with booming real activity before the crisis are found to be less resilient to the global shock. Buoyant growth in real GDP in parallel with strong growth of credit particularly exacerbated the effects of the recent crisis on the real economy. Finally, we provide empirical evidence on the importance of holding international reserves in explaining the response of the real economy to the crisis. The effect of international reserves accumulation as a shelter to the global shock rises in credit provided by the domestic banking sector. The results are shown to be robust to several estimation techniques, including those allowing for cross-country spillovers. Keywords: Financial crisis, credit boom, international shock transmission, Bayesian model averaging, cross-country analysis, non-linear effects. JEL Classifications: C11, C15, E01, O47.
  • Itkonen, Juha (2019)
    BoF Economics Review 1/2019
    The impact of digitalisation is not fully reflected in economic statistics. Even though commonly used economic metrics such as GDP are still relevant in assessing the state of the economy, the production of statistics should be developed to measure the digital economy better. The most significant measurement challenges caused by digitalisation relate to new goods, free services, changes in quality and the movement of intellectual capital between countries. Due to digitalisation, GDP and productivity growth may have been understated and the rate of price inflation overstated. Measurement errors alone do not explain the exceptionally weak development in recent years, nor do they eliminate the problems of the Finnish economy and the key challenges for economic policy. Digital technology has, however, improved our well-being in ways that are difficult to measure in money.
  • Kerola, Eeva; Mojon, Benoît (2021)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2021
    Data available at https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/statistics/china-statistics/
    It is important to understand the growth process under way in China. However, analyses of Chinese growth became increasingly more difficult after the real GDP doubling target was announced in 2012 and the official real GDP statistics lost their fluctuations. With a dataset covering 31 Chinese provinces from two decades, we have substantially more variation to work with. We find robust evidence that the richness of the provincial data provides information relevant to understand and project Chinese aggregates. Using this provincial data, we build an alternative indicator for Chinese growth that is able to reveal fluctuations not present in the official statistical series. Additionally, we concentrate on the determinants of Chinese growth and show how the drivers have gone through a substantial change over time both across economic variables and provinces. We introduce a method to understand the changing nature of Chinese growth that can be updated regularly using principal components derived from the provincial data.