Browsing by Subject "F17"

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  • Kerkelä, Leena (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2004
    Russia s economy is energy intense and wasteful of resources.This situation has arisen in part due to the country s ample energy supplies and regulated privileges for domestic consumers.Recently enacted and proposed reforms intended to increase the efficiency of the energy sector by raising domestic energy prices also have implications for the export levels of Russian energy commodities. In this study, we estimate the costs of the subsidised energy system in an allocative sense and then analyse recent moves of the Duma to boost gas and electricity prices to bring them into line with market-based pricing.Our analysis uses a multi-region general equilibrium model (GTAP) modified to express the global dimensions of the subsidisation policy and suggested reforms.Preliminary results show that current subsidies extract over 6% of GDP and limit the potential benefits of Russia s comparative advantage in energy commodities.Increases of 6% in electricity and 10% in the price of regulated gas improve efficiency by reducing distorting subsidies and distinctly shifting output from domestic markets to exports. Keywords: CGE modelling, energy market liberalisation, Russia JEL classification: D58, F17, H71, Q43, Q48
  • Fernald, John; Hsu, Eric; Spiegel, Mark M. (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 29/2015
    How reliable are China’s GDP and other data? We address this question by using trading partner exports to China as an independent measure of its economic activity from 2000–2014. We find that the information content of Chinese GDP improves markedly after 2008.We also consider a number of plausible, non-GDP indicators of economic activity that have been identified as alternative Chinese output measures. We find that activity factors based on the first principal component of sets of indicators are substantially more informative than GDP alone. The index that best matches activity in-sample uses four indicators: electricity, rail freight, an index of raw materials supply, and retail sales. Adding GDP to this group only modestly improves in-sample performance. Moreover, out of sample, a single activity factor without GDP proves the most reliable measure of economic activity.
  • Simola, Heli (2021)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021
    We examine the role of demand composition in explaining the trade collapse and recovery during the ongoing covid-19 crisis. We apply an import-intensity-adjusted measure of demand to examineimport trends in 40 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1Q95 to 4Q20. We focus on the crisis periods related to covid-19 and the global financial crisis in 2008–2009. As during the global financial crisis, we find that import-intensity-adjusted demand is a key factor contributing to trade developments during the covid-19 crisis. The analysis also reveals substantial differences between the current crisis and the global financial crisis. Trade decline during the global financial crisis was heavily investment-led. In the current crisis, consumption and import demand from the service sector have had much larger roles. The recovery of trade has been notably faster during the covid-19 crisis and led by exports as opposed to the much more important role played by domestic demand during the global financial crisis.