Browsing by Subject "F30"

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  • Ponomarenko, Alexey (2016)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2016
    Published in Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Volume 9, Issue 1, 2017, Pages 70-85
    This paper discusses the money creation mechanisms in emerging markets with special focus on external transactions. We argue that one should not rule out the possibility that fluctuations in the loans-to-deposits and non-core liabilities ratios are driven by the banks. We also argue that, under a flexible exchange rate regime in which the central bank is not trying to accumulate foreign reserves, external transactions are unlikely to contribute significantly to money growth. To make our argument, we analyze a historical episode of these flows in Korea and Russia and conduct a canonical correlation analysis for a cross-section of emerging market economies.
  • Şen, Hüseyin; Kaya, Ayşe (2016)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2016
    ​This study empirically examines the validity of the twin and triple deficits hypotheses using bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis and an annual panel data set of six post-communist countries (Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) from 1994 to 2012. Our findings, based on panel data analysis under cross-sectional dependence and country-specific heterogeneity, support neither the twin deficits hypothesis nor its extended version, the triple deficits hypothesis, for any of the countries considered. In other words, we find no Granger-causal relationship between budget deficits and trade (or current account) deficits or among budget deficits, private savings-investment deficits, and trade deficits.
  • Jokipii, Terhi; Lucey, Brian (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2006
    Published in Economic Systems, 31,1, 2007: 71-96
    Making use of ten years of daily data, this paper examines whether banking sector co-movements between the three largest Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) can be attributed to contagion or to interdependence. Our tests based on simple unadjusted correlation analysis uncover evidence of contagion between all pairs of countries. Adjusting for market volatility during turmoil, however, produces different results. We then find contagion from the Czech Republic to Hungary during this time, but all other cross-market co-movements are rather attributable rather to strong cross-market linkages. In addition, we construct a set of dummy variables to try to capture the impact of macroeconomic news on these markets. Controlling for own-country fundamentals, we discover that the correlations diminish between the Czech Republic and Poland, but that coefficients for all pairs remain substantial and significant. Finally, we address the problem of simultaneous equations, omitted variables and heteroskedasticity, and adjust our data accordingly. We confirm our previous findings. Our tests provide evidence in favour of parameter instability, again signifying the existence of contagion arising from problems in the Czech Republic affecting Hungary during much of 1996.
  • Wang, Yi David (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 28/2012
    Published in Journal of Banking and Finance, Volume 50, January 01, 2015, Pages 616-631.
    In contrast to the well established markets such as the dollar-euro market, recent CIP deviations observed in the onshore dollar-RMB forward market were primarily caused by con-version restrictions in the spot market rather than by changes in credit risk and/or liquidity constraint. This paper proposes a theoretical framework by which the Chinese authorities impose conversion restrictions in the spot market in an attempt to achieve capital flow balance, but face the tradeoff between achieving such balance and disturbing current account transactions. Consequently, the level of conversion restriction should increase with the amount of capital account transactions and decrease with the amount of current account transactions. Such conversion restriction in turn places a binding constraint on forward traders' ability to cover their forward positions, resulting in the observed CIP deviation. More particularly, the model predicts that the onshore forward rate will equal a weighted average of the CIP-implied forward rate and the market's expectation of the future spot rate, were the weighting is determined by the level of conversion restriction. As a secondary result, the model also implies that offshore non-deliverable forwards reflect the market's expectation of the future spot rate. Our empirical results are consistent with these predictions. Keywords: forward foreign exchange, China, convertibility JEL: F30, F31, F33.
  • Oomes, Nienke; Kalcheva, Katerina (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007
    In this paper, we assess whether recent economic developments in Russia are symptomatic of Dutch Disease.We first provide a brief review of the literature on Dutch Disease and the natural resource curse.We then discuss the symptoms of Dutch Disease, which include (1) real exchange rate appreciation; (2) slower manufacturing growth; (3) faster service sector growth; and (4) higher overall wages.We test these predictions for Russia while carefully controlling for other factors that could have led to similar symptoms.We conclude that, while Russia has all of the symptoms, the diagnosis of Dutch Disease remains to be confirmed. JEL Classification Numbers: F30, P28, Q30 Key words: Dutch disease, real exchange rate, resource curse, Russia, oil, transition
  • Bussiére, Matthieu; Peltonen, Tuomas (2008)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2008
    Published with third author Delle Chiaie, S. in IMF Economic Review, Volume 62, Issue 1, April 2014, Pages 146-178
    This paper estimates export and import price equations for 41 countries -including 28 emerging market economies. Further, it relates the estimated elasticities to structural fac-tors and tests for statistical breaks in the relation between trade prices and exchange rates. Results indicate that (i) the elasticity of trade prices in emerging markets is sizeable, but not significantly higher than in advanced economies; (ii) such elasticity is primarily influ-enced by macroeconomic factors such as the exchange rate regime and the inflationary en-vironment, although microeconomic factors such as product differentiation also play a role; (iii) export and import price elasticities tend to be strongly correlated across countries; (iv) pass-through to import prices has declined in some advanced economies, noticeably the United States; this is consistent with a rise in pricing-to-market in several EMEs and espe-cially with a change in the geographical composition of U.S. imports. Keywords: emerging market economies, exchange rate pass-through, pricing-to-market, local and producer currency pricing, exchange rate regime. JEL classification: F10, F30, F41.
  • Cai, Ning; Feng, Jinlu; Liu, Yong; Ru, Hong; Yang, Endong (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2019
    By merging transaction-level trade data from China Customs and loan data from the China Development Bank (CDB), we analyze the effects of government credit on trade activities. We find that CDB credit mainly flows to SOEs in strategic industries at the top of the supply chain. These up-stream loans lead to the lower price and higher amount of export goods of private firms in down-stream industries, which leads to decreases in employment and performance of the US firms in the same industry. In contrast, the US firms in downstream industries use cheaper intermediate goods imported from China and perform better subsequently.
  • Battaglia, Francesca; Buchanan, Bonnie G.; Fiordelisi, Franco; Ricci, Ornella (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 26/2018
    The 2008 global financial crisis highlights the importance of securitization and crash risk. Yet there is a dearth of papers exploring the link between securitization and crash risk. We analyze 7,096 securitization deals made by large European listed banks between 2000 and 2017. Our paper provides evidence that bank risk declines in the year of the securitization and increases in the following year. We also show that this effect is driven by low-risk securitization deals. We use a dynamic panel data approach to establish a causal relationship and control the robustness of our results by using different tail risk measures (such as crash risk, value at risk, and expected shortfall). We also show that the risk reduction effect is weaker in crisis periods relative to normal times. Our findings have policy implications as regulators attempt to revive European securitization markets.
  • Tervala, Juha (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2007
    This paper analyses the international transmission of monetary policy in a case where all export prices are set in US dollars. 'Dollar pricing' implies that the international effects of US monetary shocks are different to those of European shocks because of asymmetric exchange rate pass-through to import prices. A dollar pricing model can explain the observed asymmetry in the transmission of monetary policy: US monetary policy affects US output more than European monetary policy affects European output. I also show that the dollar pricing model reintroduces the current account as an important channel through which monetary policy affects welfare in the short run. The paper concludes that under dollar pricing monetary expansion is a beggar-thy-neighbour policy. Keywords: open economy macroeconomics, monetary policy, international policy transmission JEL classification numbers: F41, F42, F30
  • Carpenter, Jennifer N.; Lu, Fangzhou; Whitelaw, Robert F. (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2018
    This paper shows that, counter to common perception, stock prices in China are strongly linked to firm fundamentals. Since the reforms of the early 2000s, stock prices are as informative about future profits as they are in the US. Although the market is segmented from international equity markets, Chinese investors price individual stock characteristics like other global investors: they pay up for size, growth, liquidity, and long shots, while they discount for systematic risk. Price informativeness is significantly correlated with corporate investment e ciency. For international investors, China's stock market offers high average returns and low correlation with other equity markets.
  • Ayala, Diana; Nedeljkovic, Milan; Saborowski, Christian (2016)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2016
    ​This paper studies the determinants of shifts in debt composition among emerging market non-financial corporates. We show that institutions and macro fundamentals create an enabling environment for bond market development. During the recent boom episode, however, global cyclical factors accounted for most of the variation of bond shares in total corporate debt. The sensitivity to global factors appears to vary with relative bond market size rather than local fundamentals. Foreign bank linkages help explain why bond markets increasingly substituted for banks in channeling liquidity to EMs. Our results highlight the risk of capital flow reversal in EMs that benefited from the upturn in the global financial cycle mostly due to their liquid markets rather than strong fundamentals.