Browsing by Subject "F33"

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  • Cheung, Yin-Wong (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 13/2020
    This article recounts China’s renminbi (RMB) internationalization experiences since the 2009 RMBcross-border trade settlement initiative. In the first few years, the RMB made inroads into global financial markets and had a few remarkable accomplishments, including the Special Drawing Right currency status. Since the 2015 market turmoil, RMB internationalization has levelled off – possibly due to changes in both domestic and geopolitical conditions. The RMB is currently under-represented in the global market compared with China’s economic importance. China’s deliberate and schematic policies will elevate the RMB’s global stature in a gradual manner but there will not be a leapfrogging in the near term.
  • Sokolov, Vladimir (2010)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2010
    Published in Review of International Economics, 2012, Vol. 20, No. 4, Pages 707–722
    This paper examines the impacts of the 2005 shift in Russian exchange rate policies from single-currency to bi-currency basket targeting on domestic interest rates and sovereign risk premium dynamics. The policy shift disconnected domestic interest rates from US dollar-denominated interest rates, replacing them with a growing positive relationship with the dual-currency basket (USD-EUR) adopted by the Central Bank of Russia, as well as a synthetic interest rate composed of the US dollar LIBOR and the euro LIBOR. The paper also considers the insulating properties of Russian basket targeting policies during the recent global liquidity crisis. I present evidence that the Russian MosIBOR rate was negatively related to the US dollar LIBOR rate and positively related to the synthetic USD-EUR rate during the "decoupling" stage of the crisis. Even with the steep quantitative easing of the US Fed during this period, the finding suggests the Russian money market was more in sync with ! the monetary policies of the euro area. The central conclusion here is that, in conditions of managed floating exchange rate policies and liberalized capital accounts, the relationship between a country's domestic interest rates and their foreign counterparts depends on the de facto operating target of the central bank of this country, whether it is a single currency or a basket. JEL classification: F31, F33 Keywords: exchange rate policy; basket targeting; sovereign CDS; decoupling
  • Song, Ke; Xia, Le (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2019
    This research empirically examines the impact of China’s Renminbi (RMB) bilateral swap agree-ments (BSAs) on the usage of the currency in cross-border trade transactions. By using a unique dataset from SWIFT including cross-border settlement messages of 91 countries/regions between October 2010 and November 2015, we confirm that the signing of a RMB BSA helps to increase the number, the value and the proportion of RMB settlement in cross-border trade. Our results are robust with respect to the choice of different models, including multi-level mixed model, two-stage regression model, and difference-in-difference model. In addition to justifying the effectiveness of China’s BSA-signing strategy to promote the RMB usage in trade settlement, our results clarify that the signing of those RMB BSAs is not purely for China’s political ends as some scholars claim.
  • Gächter, Simon; Riedl, Alesandra; Ritzberger-Grünwald, Doris (2013)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2013
    We analyze business cycle convergence in the EU by focusing on the decoupling vs. convergence hypothesis for central, eastern and south eastern Europe (CESEE). In a nutshell, we find that business cycles in CESEE have decoupled considerably from the euro area (EA) during the financial crisis in terms of both cyclical dispersion (i.e. the deviation of output gaps) and cyclical correlation. The results are mainly driven by smaller countries, which can be explained by the fact that small economies seem to have larger cyclical swings as they are more dependent on external demand, which causes a decoupling in terms of higher output gap deviations from the EA cycle in times of economic crises. At the same time, this does not necessarily affect business cycle synchronization as measured by cyclical correlations, where the strength of the linear relationship of two cycles is measured. However, despite the recent declines in the co-movement, we generally observe high correlation levels of CESEE countries with the EA after their EU accession in 2004. Finally, we find a significant decoupling of trend growth rates between EA and CESEE until the onset of the financial crises. Since the beginning of the crisis, trend growth rates have declined both in CESEE and the EA with the trend growth differential decreasing significantly from about three to below two percentage points in 2011. JEL classification: E32, E52, F15, F33, F44; Keywords: Business cycles, EMU, CESEE, optimum currency areas
  • Garcia-Herrero, Alicia; Xia, Le (2013)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2013
    Published in Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Volume 22, Issue 4, 2015 p. 368-383 as RMB Bilateral Swap Agreements: how China chooses its partners?
    This paper analyzes empirically what determines the choice of countries signing an RMB-denominated Bilateral Swap Agreement (BSA) with China. The gravity motif is predominant (both in terms of country size and distance from China) but so is the trade motif, in terms of both exports to China and the existence of an FTA with China. Institutional soundness also matters since countries with better government and less corruption are more likely to sign an RMB-denominated BSA. This contravenes the view that China has used RMB BSAs as a soft power tool in more corrupted countries. However, the fact that China has a preference for countries with a default history and a closed capital account calls for caution. Keywords: RMB internationalization, bilateral swap agreements. JEL: F33, F36, F42
  • Wang, Yi David (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 28/2012
    Published in Journal of Banking and Finance, Volume 50, January 01, 2015, Pages 616-631.
    In contrast to the well established markets such as the dollar-euro market, recent CIP deviations observed in the onshore dollar-RMB forward market were primarily caused by con-version restrictions in the spot market rather than by changes in credit risk and/or liquidity constraint. This paper proposes a theoretical framework by which the Chinese authorities impose conversion restrictions in the spot market in an attempt to achieve capital flow balance, but face the tradeoff between achieving such balance and disturbing current account transactions. Consequently, the level of conversion restriction should increase with the amount of capital account transactions and decrease with the amount of current account transactions. Such conversion restriction in turn places a binding constraint on forward traders' ability to cover their forward positions, resulting in the observed CIP deviation. More particularly, the model predicts that the onshore forward rate will equal a weighted average of the CIP-implied forward rate and the market's expectation of the future spot rate, were the weighting is determined by the level of conversion restriction. As a secondary result, the model also implies that offshore non-deliverable forwards reflect the market's expectation of the future spot rate. Our empirical results are consistent with these predictions. Keywords: forward foreign exchange, China, convertibility JEL: F30, F31, F33.
  • Fischer, Christoph (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2012
    Based on a classification of countries and territories according to their regime and anchor currency choice, the study considers the two major currency blocs of the present world. A nested logit regression suggests that long-term structural economic variables determine a given country's currency bloc affiliation. The dollar bloc differs from the euro bloc in that there exists a group of countries that peg temporarily to the US dollar without having close economic affinities with the bloc. The estimated parameters are consistent with an additive random utility model interpretation. A currency bloc equilibrium in the spirit of Alesina and Barro (2002) is derived empirically. Keywords: anchor currency choice, nested logit, exchange rate regime classification, additive random utility model, currency bloc equilibrium JEL-Classification: F02, F31, F33, E42, C25
  • Marconi, Daniela (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2017
    Published in Pacific Economic Review, 23, 2, 2018, 150–163
    The internationalization of China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB) bolsters the growing economic and political influence of China in the Asia-Pacific region. This paper assesses the evolution of RMB exchange rate co-movements against the US dollar (USD) within the region. While the RMB’s influence is growing, it is also found to be asymmetric and varying over time depending on the global movement of the USD. The trend is strong when the USD depreciates, but fades when the USD appreciates.
  • Schaling, Eric; Eijffinger, Sylvester; Tesfaselassie, Mewael (2004)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 23/2004
    In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates into a standard inflation forecast targeting framework.Learning about the transmission process of monetary policy is introduced by having heterogeneous agents - ie central bank and private agents - who have different information sets about the future sequence of short-term interest rates.We analyse inflation forecast targeting in two environments.One in which the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector interest rate expectations are generated, and one in which the central bank has imperfect knowledge.In the case of imperfect knowledge, the central bank has to learn about private sector interest rate expectations, as the latter affect the impact of monetary policy through the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates.Here, following Evans and Honkapohja (2001), the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive OLS) using the Kalman filter.We find that optimal monetary policy under learning is a policy that separates estimation and control.Therefore, this model suggests that the practical relevance of the breakdown of the separation principle and the need for experimentation in policy may be limited. Key words: learning, rational expectations, separation principle, Kalman filter, term structure of interest rates JEL classification numbers: C53, E43, E52, F33
  • Castrén, Olli; Takalo, Tuomas; Wood, Geoffrey (2004)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 22/2004
    Published in Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Volume 57, No. 1, February 2010: 85-102
    It is commonly thought that an open economy can accommodate output shocks through either exchange rate or real sector adjustments.We formalise this notion by incorporating labour market rigidities into an 'escape clause' model of currency crises.We show that the absence of structural reform makes a currency peg more fragile and undermines the credibility of the monetary authority in a dynamic setting.The fragility is captured by a devaluation premium in expectations that increases the average inflation rate when the currency peg is more vulnerable to 'busts' than 'booms'.This interaction between macroeconomic and microeconomic rigidities suggests that a policy reform can only be consistent if it renders either exchange rates or labour markets flexible. Key words: exchange rate policy, labour market flexibility, structural reform JEL classification numbers: E42, F33, D84
  • Schaling, Eric (2003)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita; Bank of Finland. Discussion papers 20/2003
    In this paper we analyse disinflation policy in two environments. In the first, the central bank has perfect knowledge, in the sense that it understands and observes the process by which private sector inflation expectations are generated; in the second, the central bank has to learn the private sector inflation forecasting rule.With imperfect knowledge, results depend on the learning scheme that is employed.Here, the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive OLS) using the Kalman filter.A novel feature of a learning-based policy as against the central bank's disinflation policy under perfect knowledge is that the degree of monetary accommodation (the extent to which the central bank accommodates private sector inflation expectations) is no longer constant across the disinflation, but becomes state-dependent.This means that the central bank's behaviour changes during the disinflation as it collects more information. Key words: learning, rational expectations, separation principle, Kalman filter, time-varying parameters, optimal control JEL classification numbers: C53, E43, E52, F33
  • Esanov, Akram; Merkl, Christian; Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2004
    Published in Journal of Comparative Economics vol 33, no 3 (2005), pp. 484-499
    The paper reviews the recent conduct of monetary policy and the central bank s rule-based behavior in Russia.Using different policy rules, we test whether the central bank in Russia reacts to changes in inflation, output gap and the exchange rate in a consistent and predictable manner.Our results indicate that during the period of 1993-2002 the Bank of Russia has used monetary aggregates as a main policy instrument in conducting monetary policy. JEL classification: E52, E61, F33, F41 Keywords: Monetary policy rules, exchange rate, central bank, Russia
  • Horvath, Julius (2003)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2003
    The first part of this paper is a review of significant papers in the vast literature on optimum currency area (OCA) theory.The author focuses on the main classical contributions, then considers modern treatment of OCA theory.The second part considers empirical literature on the types of geographical areas that might constitute optimum currency areas, particularly with respect to asymmetry and symmetry of shocks.JEL classification: E42, F33
  • Korhonen, Tapio (2016)
    Suomen Pankki. Yleistajuiset selvitykset. A 117
    Rahoitusmarkkinoilla on kaksi perinteistä ydintehtävää: luoda rahaa ja välittää rahoitusta rahoitusylijäämäisiltä sektoreilta rahoitusalijäämäisille sektoreille. Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kolmanneksi perustehtäväksi on viime vuosikymmeninä kehittynyt laaja toiminta jälki- ja johdannaismarkkinoilla. Tässä katsauksessa esitellään käytännönläheisesti näiden rahoitus- ja valuuttamarkkinoiden perustoimintojen luonnetta ja toimintojen liittymistä toisiinsa. Lähtökohta on kokonaistaloudellinen. Koko kansantalous toimii tiukempien rajoitteiden alaisena kuin sen yksittäiset talousyksiköt. Aluksi käsitellään rahan luomista ja ominaisuuksia sekä valuuttamarkkinoiden toimintaa. Mahdollisuus luoda rahaa tuo mukanaan inflaatioon ja rahapolitiikkaan liittyvät kysymykset. Rahapolitiikan tarkastelu painottuu politiikan käytännön toteutukseen.Samalla esitetään rahamarkkinoiden vakauteen, sääntelyyn ja säännöstelyyn liittyviä näkökohtia. Euroalueen rahapolitiikkaan ja vakauteen sisältyy runsaasti omia, osin vaikeitakin erityistekijöitä. Katsauksen jälkiosassa käydään läpi rahoituksen välitystä kansantaloudessa eli eri sektoreiden rahoitusta, kansantalouden rahoitustasapainoa sekä rahoitus- ja arvopaperimarkkinoiden tehokkuutta, vakautta, informaatiota ym. koskevia kysymyksiä. Analysoitavana on myös keskeisiä maksutaseen ja kansainvälisten rahoitusmarkkinoiden tasapaino-ongelmia. Viimeisessä luvussa paneudutaan eläkkeiden rahastoinnin osin varsin hämmentävään ongelmaan koko kansantalouden tasolla. Tarkastelun kohteena on ennen kaikkea kansantalouden rahoituksen melko pysyviä perusilmiöitä. Kuvauksen yhteydessä esitellään kuitenkin esimerkinomaisesti myös jonkin verran markkinakehitystä viime vuosilta ja vuosikymmeniltä Suomesta, euroalueelta ja maailmantaloudesta. Varsinainen historiakatsaus tämä teos ei kuitenkaan ole. Suuri osa tekstistä pohjautuu kirjoittajan Suomen Pankissa eri aikoina eri tarkoituksia varten laatimiin muistioihin.
  • He, Qing; Korhonen, Iikka; Guo, Junjie; Liu, Fangge (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2015
    Published in International Review of Economics & Finance, Volume 42, March 2016, Pages 442–458
    The paper investigates the determinants of geographical distribution of international currencies in global financial market transactions. We implement a gravity model, in which international currency distribution depends on the characteristics of the source and destination countries. We find that the source country’s currency is more likely to be used in the financial market transactions of the destination country if the bilateral trade and capital flows are large or the destination country’s economy is the larger of the two. We also find that the level of development of the destination country’s financial market and whether the two countries use a common language are important determinants of the currency distribution. In addition, our model suggests that, to be a true international currency, the renminbi should be used more extensively in the financial markets of the US and UK.
  • Cheung, Yin-Wong; Rime, Dagfinn (2014)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2014
    Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 49, Issue PA, December 01, 2014, Pages 170-189.
    The offshore renminbi (CNH) exchange rate is the exchange rate of the Chinese currency transacted outside China. We study the CNH exchange rate dynamics and its links with onshore exchange rates. Using a specialized microstructure dataset, we find that CNH is significantly affected by its order flow and limit-order imbalance. The offshore CNH exchange rate has an increasing impact on the onshore rate, and significant predictive power for the official RMB central parity rate. The CNH order flow also affects the onshore RMB exchange rate and the central parity rate. The interactions between variables are likely to be time-varying. Publication keywords: foreign exchange market microstructure, order flow, limit-order imbalance, CNH, CNY, central parity rate
  • Cheung, Yin-Wong; Hui, Cho-Hoi; Tsang, Andrew (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2017
    On August 11, 2015, China revamped its procedure for setting the official central parity of the renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar. Our empirical investigation suggests that the intertemporal dynamics of China’s central parity shifted after this policy change, though the deviation of the RMB offshore rate from the central parity and the US dollar index remained the two significant determi-nants of central parity after the policy change. In contrast, the VIX index only offered explanatory power up to August 2015. Thereafter, the onshore RMB rate and the difference between the one-month offshore and onshore RMB forward points have significant impacts on the central parity. While the US dollar index effect remains, we find no evidence of a rate-fixing role for the RMB exchange rate against the currency basket announced by China in December 2015.
  • Cheung, Yin-Wong (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 11/2014
    Recently, China has been quite aggressive in promoting the international use of its currency, the renminbi (RMB). Historical experiences suggest that an active offshore market is essential for a global currency. Indeed, anecdotal evidence affirms the role of offshore RMB markets in pushing the RMB to the world. One should not, however, overplay the contribution of offshore markets. While offshore markets offer the opportunities to experiment with the global use of the currency, the overseas acceptance of the RMB is ultimately determined by both internal and external economic forces, and geopolitical factors. With its relatively small size, the offshore RMB is not likely to pressure China and alter its financial liberalization policy. A well-organized offshore RMB market will complement China's RMB internationalization policy, but could not raise the currency's global status beyond the level justified by it economic and political attributes. JEL Codes: F33