Browsing by Subject "G14"

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  • Anatolyev, Stanislav (2005)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2005
    Published in Research in International Business and Finance, Vol. 22, 2008: 56-67
    We study three aspects of the Russian stock market - factors influencing stock returns, integration of the stock market with world .financial markets, and market efficiency - from 1995 to present, putting emphasis on how these evolved over time.We .find many highly unstable relationships, and indeed, greater instability than that generated by financial crises alone.While most computed statistics exhibit constant ups and downs, there are recently clear tendencies in the development of the Russian stock market: a sharp rise in explainability of returns, an increased role of international financial markets, and a decrease in the profitability of trading. Key words: Russia, transition, stock returns, integration, efficiency. JEL codes: C22, F36, G14, G15
  • Lof, Matthijs; Bommel, Jos van (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2018
    We propose the Volume Coefficient of Variation (VCV), the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean of trading volume, as a new and easily computable measure of information asymmetry in security markets. We use a simple microstructure model to demonstrate that VCV is strictly increasing in the proportion of informed trade. Empirically, we find that firm-year observations of VCV, computed from daily trading volumes, are correlated with extant firm-level measures of asymmetric information in the cross-section of US stocks. Moreover, VCV increases following exogenous reductions in analyst coverage induced by brokerage closures, and steeply decreases around earnings announcements.
  • Virtanen, Timo; Tölö, Eero; Virén, Matti; Taipalus, Katja (2018)
    Journal of Financial Stability June 2018
    We consider the effectiveness of unit root exuberance tests in predicting banking crises. Using a sample of 15 EU countries over the past three decades, our crisis dating follows the scheme of the European Systemic Risk Board. The exuberance indicators slightly outperform benchmark signaling and logit models. Variables based on credit- and debt-service are identified as better predictors than housing market variables, which in turn outperform stock market variables. The results corroborate the existing literature, which says financial crises are typically preceded by leveraged bubbles, and more specifically, that initial bubble signals from explosive growth in credit and asset prices are followed by a lift-off in debt-servicing costs as a financial crisis nears. The risk of financial crisis peaks just after the bubble bursts. Our results indicate that exuberance tests, which can be used in crisis prediction in a manner similar to conventional early warning models, may be readily incorporated into the toolkit of financial stability supervisors.
  • Goodell, John W.; Goyal, Abhinav; Hasan, Iftekhar (2020)
    Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money January
    Previous research finds market financing is favored over relationship financing in environments of better governance, since the transaction costs to investors of vetting asymmetric information are thereby reduced. For industries supplying public goods, for-profits rely on market financing, while nonprofits rely on relationships with donors. This suggests that for-profits will be more inclined than nonprofits to improve financial transparency. We examine the impact of for-profit versus nonprofit status on the financial transparency of firms engaged with supplying public goods. There are relatively few industries that have large number of both for-profit and nonprofit firms across countries. However, the microfinance industry provides the opportunity of a large number of both for-profit and nonprofit firms in relatively equal numbers, across a wide array of countries. Consistent with our prediction, we find that financial transparency is positively associated with a for-profit status. Results will be of broad interest both to scholars interested in the roles of transparency and transaction costs on market versus relational financing
  • Gu, Xian; Hasan, Iftekhar; Lu, Haitian (2019)
    Comparative Economic Studies 3 ; September
    Using a comprehensive dataset of corporate lawsuits in China, we investigate the implications of corporate misconduct on the cost of private debt. Evidence reveals that firms involved in litigations obtain subsequent loans with stricter pricing terms, 15.1 percent higher loan spreads, than non-litigated borrowers. Strong political connection and repeated relationship help to flatten the sensitivity of loan pricing to litigation. Nonbank financial institutions react in stronger manner to corporate misconduct than traditional banks in pricing loans. Overall, we show that private debt holders care about borrowers’ wrongdoing in the past.
  • Jokivuolle, Esa; Kiema, Ilkka; Vesala, Timo (2010)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2010
    Published in Journal of Financial Services Research, August 2014, Volume 46, Issue 1: 55-76 ; https://doi.org/10.1007/s10693-013-0169-z
    We show how banks excessive risk-taking, stemming from informational asymmetries in loan markets, can lead to an excessive output loss when a recession starts. Risk-based capital requirements can alleviate the output loss by reducing excessive risk-taking in normal times. Model simulations suggest that the differentiation of risk-weights in the Basel framework might be further increased in order to take full advantage of the allocational effects of capital requirements. Our analysis also provides a new rationale for the countercyclical elements of capital requirements. Keywords: bank regulation, Basel III, capital requirements, credit risk, crises, procyclicality JEL classification numbers: D41, D82, G14, G21, G28
  • Jokivuolle, Esa; Kiema, Ilkka; Vesala, Timo (2009)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2009
    Although beneficial allocational effects have been a central motivator for the Basel II capital adequacy reform, the interaction of these effects with Basel II's procyclical impact has been less discussed. In this paper, we investigate the effect of capital requirements on the allocation of credit and its interaction with procyclicality, and compare Basel I and Basel II type capital requirements. We consider competitive credit markets where entrepreneurs of varying ability can apply for loans for one-period investment projects of two different risk types. The risk of a project further depends on the state of the economy, modelled as a two-state Markov process. In this type of setting, excessive risk taking typically arises because higher-type borrowers cross-subsidize lower-type borrowers via a pricing regime based on average success rates. We find that risk-based capital requirements (such as Basel II) alleviate the cross-subsidization effect and can be chosen so as to implement first-best allocation. This implies that the ensuing reduction in the proportion of high-risk investments may mitigate the procyclical effect of Basel II on economic activity. Moreover, we find that optimal risk-based capital requirements should be set lower in recessions than in normal times. Our simulations show that when measured by either cumulative output or output variation, Basel II type capital requirements may actual be slightly less procyclical than flat capital requirements. The biggest reduction in procyclicality is however achieved with optimal risk-based capital requirements which are considerably higher than Basel II requirements and which are adjusted downwards in recession periods. Keywords: Basel II, bank regulation, capital requirements, credit risk, procyclicality JEL classification numbers: D41, D82, G14, G21, G28
  • Hasan, Iftekhar; Wu, Deming (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2016
    Do banks use credit default swap hedging to substitute for loan sales? By tracking banks’ lending exposures and CDS positions on individual firms, we find that banks use CDS hedging to complement rather than to substitute for loan sales. Consequently, bank loan sales are higher for firms that are actively traded in the CDS market. In addition, we find evidence that suggests that banks sell CDS protection as credit enhancements to facilitate loan sales. This study employs identification strategies similar to the “twin study” design to separate the effects of borrower-side and lender-side factors, and to minimize the omitted-variables bias.
  • Tölö, Eero; Jokivuolle, Esa; Virén, Matti (2017)
    Journal of Financial Intermediation July
    We construct a measure of a bank's relative creditworthiness from the Eurosystem's proprietary inter-bank loan data: average overnight borrowing rate relative to an overnight rate index (AOR). We then investigate the dynamic relationship between AOR and the credit default swap price relative to the corresponding market index of 60 banks during 2008–2013. Price discovery mainly takes place in the CDS market, but AOR also contributes to it. The lagged daily changes of AOR help predict CDS. This indicates that AOR includes private information, which the CDS market does not immediately incorporate. We further show that the private information advantage is concentrated on days of market stress and on banks, which mainly borrow from relationship lender banks. Such borrower banks are typically smaller, have weaker ratings, and are likely to reside in crisis countries. Competent authorities can use AOR as a complementary indicator of banks’ concurrent health.
  • Godlewski, Christophe J.; Turk-Ariss, Rima; Weill, Laurent (2014)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2014
    Published in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Volume 132, December 2016: 63-76
    ​Sukuk, the shari’a-compliant alternative mode of financing to conventional bonds, have considerably expanded over the last decade. We analyze the stock market reaction to two key features of this instrument: sukuk type and characteristics of the shari’a scholar certifying the issue. We use the event study methodology to measure abnormal returns for a sample of 131 sukuk from eight countries over the period 2006-2013 and find that Ijara sukuk structures exert a positive influence on the stock price of the issuing firm. We observe a similar positive impact from shari’a scholar reputation and proximity to issuer. Overall our results support the hypotheses that the type of sukuk and the choice of scholars hired to certify these securities matter for the market valuation of the issuing company. Publication keywords: financial instruments, Islamic finance, shari’a scholars
  • Brada, Josef C.; Chen, Chunda; Jia, Jingyi; Kutan, Ali M. (2020)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2020
    Using event study methodology, we investigate whether bilateral investment protection treaties afford protection to foreign investors. Examining arbitral decisions for firms from six countries shows that firms that received awards from arbitrators gained in market value by as much as 3%. Per dollar awarded, firms gained over $20 in market value. Thus, we conclude that the system of arbitration does afford significant benefits to firms that can demonstrate that they have been injured by host governments who violated the terms of the relevant investor protection treaty. We also find some evidence that arbitral decisions are anticipated by stock markets.
  • Hasan, Iftekhar; Meslier, Céline; Tarazi, Amine; Zhou, Mingming (2018)
    Journal of Economics and Business January-February
    This paper examines the effects of bank alliance network on bonds issued by European banks during the period 1990–2009. We construct six measures capturing different dimensions of banks’ network characteristics. In opposition to the results obtained for non-financial firms, our findings indicate that being part of a network does not create value for bank’s bondholders, indicating a dark side effect of strategic alliances in the banking sector. While being part of a network is perceived as a risk-increasing event by market participants, this negative perception is significantly lower for the larger banks, and, to a lesser extent, for the more profitable banks. Moreover, during crisis times, the positive impact on bond spread of a bank’s higher centrality or of a bank’s higher connectedness in the network is stronger, indicating that market participants may fear spillover effects within the network during periods of banks’ heightened financial fragility.
  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Godlewski, Christophe J.; Weill, Laurent (2015)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2015
    Published online in Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, April 2019
    We study the effect of bank loan and bond announcements on borrower’s stock price. We apply an event study methodology on a sample of companies from 17 European countries and find that debt announcement generates a positive stock market reaction. However, our main conclusion is that the issuance of a loan exerts a significantly stronger reaction than does the issuance of a bond. This finding supports the hypothesis that loan issuance has a positive certification effect. The analysis of determinants of abnormal returns following debt announcements shows a positive impact of financial development and a negative effect of the Eurozone crisis.
  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Godlewski, Christophe J.; Weill, Laurent (2020)
    Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance February
    We study the effect of syndicated loan and bond announcements on the stock price of borrowers. No work since James (1987) on US data has compared the impact of both types of announcements on the same sample. Applying an event study methodology on a sample of companies from 17 Western European countries, we find that debt announcements tend to generate a positive stock market reaction. Our main conclusion is that loan issuance exerts a significantly stronger reaction than a bond issuance. This finding supports the hypothesis that loan issuance has a positive certification effect. The analysis of determinants of abnormal returns following debt announcements shows a positive impact for financial development and a negative effect for the Eurozone crisis.
  • Takalo, Tuomas; Toivanen, Otto (2003)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 6/2003
    Published in Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Volume 114, Issue 2, June 2012: 601-628
    We study a financial market adverse selection model where all agents are endowed with initial wealth and choose to invest as entrepreneurs or financiers, or not to invest.We show that often a lack of outside finance leads to the emergence of financial markets where availability of outside finance leads to autarky.We find that i) there exist Pareto-efficient and inefficient equilibria; ii) adverse selection has more severe consequences for poorer economies; iii) increasing initial wealth may cause a shift from Pareto-efficient to inefficient equilibrium; iv) increasing the proportion of agents with positive NPV projects causes a shift from inefficient to efficient equilibrium; v) equilibrium financial contracts are either equity-like or 'pure' debt contracts; vi) agents with negative (positive) NPV projects earn rents only in (non-)wealth-constrained economies; vii) agents earn rents only when employing pure debt contracts; and viii) removing storage technology destroys the only Pareto-efficient equilibrium in non-wealth-constrained economies.Our model enables analysis of various policies concerning financial stability, the need for sophisticated financial institutions, development aid, and the promotion of entrepreneurship. Key words: financial market efficiency, adverse selection, financial contracts, creation of firms. JEL classification numbers: D58, G14, G20, G28, G32
  • Faria, Gonçalo; Verona, Fabio (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2016
    Published in Journal of Empirical Finance, 45, January, 2018, 228–242 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2017.11.009
    We generalize the Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) sum-of-the-parts method for forecasting stock market returns. Rather than summing the parts of stock returns, we suggest summing some of the frequency-decomposed parts. The proposed method signi cantly improves upon the original sum-of-the-parts and delivers statistically and economically gains over historical mean forecasts, with monthly out-of-sample R2 of 2.60% and annual utility gains of 558 basis points. The strong performance of this method comes from its ability to isolate the frequencies of the parts with the highest predictive power, and from the fact that the selected frequency-decomposed parts carry complementary information that captures di erent frequencies of stock market returns.
  • Faria, Gonçalo; Verona, Fabio (2018)
    Journal of Empirical Finance January 2018
    Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2016.
    We generalize the Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) sum-of-the-parts method for forecasting stock market returns. Rather than summing the parts of stock returns, we suggest summing some of the frequency-decomposed parts. The proposed method significantly improves upon the original sum-of-the-parts and delivers statistically and economically gains over historical mean forecasts, with monthly out-of-sample R2 of 2.60% and annual utility gains of 558 basis points. The strong performance of this method comes from its ability to isolate the frequencies of the parts with the highest predictive power, and from the fact that the selected frequency-decomposed parts carry complementary information that captures different frequencies of stock market returns.
  • Kozluk, Tomasz (2008)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2008
    In a broad sample of developed and emerging economies over the past ten years we apply the approximate factor model in a search for common global and regional driving-forces in stock market returns and volatility. We focus particularly on two emerging stock markets - Russia and China, because of their unique characteristics and performance in the past years. We find that while Russian markets, like the CEEC region, substantially increased their integration with global stock markets, both the Chinese A- and B-share markets continued to move largely independently from global movements and only slightly increased in comovement with regional forces. We provide evidence of a general increase in global comovement of stock markets over the past decade and a decline in the role of regional forces, which imply a decrease of the effectiveness of cross-country hedging strategies. Keywords: stock markets, financial integration, Russia, China, global and regional integration; JEL Classification: F36, G11, G14.
  • Silvo, Aino (2017)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2017
    I study the link between house prices, lending standards, and aggregate over-investment in housing. I develop a model of the housing market where the credit market is affected by asymmetric information. Selection is towards less creditworthy borrowers. Asymmetric information coupled with deadweight costs of default can create endogenous boom-bust cycles in house prices. I show that lending standards are loose and the incentives for less-than-creditworthy borrowers to apply for a loan are particularly strong, first, when future house values are expected to be high, which leads to high leverage of borrowers; and second, when safe interest rates are low, which implies low costs of borrowing. However, there are strong nonlinearities in the relationship between borrowing incentives and economic fundamentals. The results shed light on incentive mechanisms that can help explain the developments in the U.S. housing market in the early 2000s. They also imply that loose monetary policy can have a direct impact on the stability of the housing market through the cost of borrowing and the opportunity cost of housing investment.
  • Hasan, Iftekhar; Wu, Deming (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2016
    ​We test five hypotheses on whether banks use CDS to hedge corporate loans, provide credit enhancements, obtain regulatory capital relief, and exploit banking relationship and private information. Linking large banks’ CDS positions and syndicated lending on individual firms, we observe strong evidence for the credit enhancement and regulatory capital relief hypotheses, but mixed evidence for the hedging, banking relationship, and private information hypotheses. Banks buy and sell more CDS on their borrowers, but their net CDS positions and lending status are largely unrelated. We find no evidence of bank using CDS to exploit private information.