Browsing by Subject "H62"

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  • Şen, Hüseyin; Kaya, Ayşe (2016)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2016
    ​This study empirically examines the validity of the twin and triple deficits hypotheses using bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis and an annual panel data set of six post-communist countries (Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) from 1994 to 2012. Our findings, based on panel data analysis under cross-sectional dependence and country-specific heterogeneity, support neither the twin deficits hypothesis nor its extended version, the triple deficits hypothesis, for any of the countries considered. In other words, we find no Granger-causal relationship between budget deficits and trade (or current account) deficits or among budget deficits, private savings-investment deficits, and trade deficits.
  • Virén, Matti (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2005
    This paper deals with the fiscal behaviour of governments in the 1920s and 1930s.The intention is to see whether there were the same features in government behaviour as in the post-World War II era.In particular, attention is paid to asymmetric fiscal policies, ie the question of whether government deficits react differently to income growth and inflation during depressions and booms.The analysis is carried out using data primarily from the League of Nations.The data come from 32 countries and covers the period 1925-1938.Estimation results suggest the in pre-war period deficits were much less sensitive to output and did not show as many asymmetric features as in post-war period.Otherwise, the same regularities apply to the empirical results.In particular, this is true with the disciplinary role of government debt in terms of budget deficits. Key words: fiscal policy, deficit, asymmetric behaviour JEL classification numbers: E62, H62
  • Virén, Matti (2013)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2013
    Published in International Economics and Economic Policy, September 2014, Volume 11, Issue 3: 397-411
    This paper deals with the problems of assessing the effects of fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union. Here, we face wide cross-country differences in key fiscal parameters, some of which may also be vary over time (business cycle). Moreover, these effects may also depend on trade spillover effects and thus on the extent of policy coordination. Our empirical analyses make use of data for 15 EU countries, mainly for the period 1970-2011. The results clearly indicate that fiscal multipliers are not constant across countries and time, being much larger during economic recessions. By contrast, the policy coordination-effects appear to be more homogenous, although it turns out that small countries may benefit more from coordination. Key words: Fiscal policy, policy coordination, government deficit, EMU Classification JEL: H62, E61, E63
  • Hasko, Harri (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/2007
    Shocks to monetary and fiscal policy have played a major role in public debt developments in the OECD countries since the mid-1970s. According to the applied VAR approach, these shocks, taken together, explained, on average, about half of the forecast error variation in the debt to GDP ratio, while the share of shocks to GDP growth was close to 30 percent. In contrast, shocks to inflation and the debt ratio itself played in most cases only a minor role. However, the inflation shocks were vital in initiating the public debt problems, as the increase in actual inflation, and particularly the persistence of high inflation expectations in the 1980s, led to a prolonged period of high real interest rates. Learning the implications of greater monetary discipline therefore gave rise to `some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic' which aggravated debt problems. In most countries fiscal policy aimed at correcting the deterioration in fiscal balances, but the progress was in most cases slow and delayed. It is noticeable that public debt developments have been quite similar in both the United States and the euro area despite differences in fiscal policy and the role of the public sector. Shocks to GDP growth, inflation and monetary policy, which have been more similar in both continents, explain about two thirds of the forecast error variation of the debt to GDP ratio, while shocks to fiscal policy explain about 20 percent. Keywords: public debt dynamics, fiscal policy, monetary policy, VAR models JEL classification numbers: E62, H62, C22
  • Kinnunen, Helvi (2002)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 28/2002
    Julkisen talouden rahoituspohjan kestävyys väestön vanhetessa on kiistaton ongelma Suomessa kuten useissa muissakin länsimaissa. Työikäisen väestön väheneminen, työvoiman ikääntyminen ja hyvin vanhojen ihmisten lukumäärän kasvu on vaikea yhdistelmä julkisen talouden kestävyyden näkökulmasta.Epäedulliseksi muuttuvalla ikärakenteella on pitkäaikaiset vaikutukset julkisen talouden tasapainoon ja liikkumavaraan.Suureksi jäänyt rakenteellinen työttömyys ja työvoiman keski-iän nousu lähivuosina heikentävät julkisten palveluiden rahoitusperustaa.Vuoteen 2004 saakka ulottuvan Suomen Pankin ennusteen jatkoksi tehdyt laskelmat osoittavat, että jos eläkkeelle hakeutuminen ei selvästi muutu, paineet verotuksen kiristämiseen lähivuosina ovat ilmeiset. Laskelmat osoittavat, että eläkeuudistus ei riitä purkamaan ikääntymisestä aiheutuvia verotuksen kiristämispaineita.Jos eläkeuudistuksen lisäksi julkisen palvelutuotannon tuottavuutta saataisiin kohennettua, ikääntyminen ei välttämättä johtaisi verotuksen kiristämiseen. väestön ikääntyminen, veroaste, eläkeuudistus, julkisen palvelutuotannon tehokkuus JEL-luokittelu: H55, H62, J11, J18