Browsing by Subject "Q43"

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  • Stanisławska, Ewa; Paloviita, Maritta; Łyziak, Tomasz (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2019
    Published in Economics Letters 2021 ; 206 ; September "Consumer inflation views : micro-level inconsistencies and macro-level measures"
    Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose qualitative and quantitative views on expected increase of prices do not match each other. Then we consider the impact of inconsistent survey responses on balance statistics and mean values of quantitative inflation expectations. We also analyze expectations’ formation estimating the sticky-information models. The results, based on Finnish and Polish data, suggest that even if the fraction of inconsistent survey responses is non-negligible, it matters neither for the aggregated figures of inflation views, nor for understanding of the formation of inflation expectations by consumers. We conclude that micro-level inconsistencies do not reduce the reliability of the current EC Consumer Survey dataset. Our results also indicate that inconsistent responses are not important drivers of the inflation overestimation bias displayed in the data.
  • Kerkelä, Leena (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2004
    Russia s economy is energy intense and wasteful of resources.This situation has arisen in part due to the country s ample energy supplies and regulated privileges for domestic consumers.Recently enacted and proposed reforms intended to increase the efficiency of the energy sector by raising domestic energy prices also have implications for the export levels of Russian energy commodities. In this study, we estimate the costs of the subsidised energy system in an allocative sense and then analyse recent moves of the Duma to boost gas and electricity prices to bring them into line with market-based pricing.Our analysis uses a multi-region general equilibrium model (GTAP) modified to express the global dimensions of the subsidisation policy and suggested reforms.Preliminary results show that current subsidies extract over 6% of GDP and limit the potential benefits of Russia s comparative advantage in energy commodities.Increases of 6% in electricity and 10% in the price of regulated gas improve efficiency by reducing distorting subsidies and distinctly shifting output from domestic markets to exports. Keywords: CGE modelling, energy market liberalisation, Russia JEL classification: D58, F17, H71, Q43, Q48
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Juurikkala, Tuuli (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2007
    Published in Journal of Economics and Finance, Volume 33, 1/2009, pp. 71-79
    We assess the determinants of equilibrium real exchange rates in a sample of oil-dependent countries.Our basic data cover OPEC countries from 1975 to 2005.We also include three oil-producing Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries in our robustness analysis.Utilising several estimation techniques, including pooled mean group and mean group estimators, we find that the price of oil has a clear, statistically significant effect on real exchange rates in our group of oil-producing countries.Higher oil price lead to appreciation of the real exchange rate. Elasticity of the real exchange rate with respect to the oil price is typically between 0.4 and 0.5, but may be larger depending on the specification.Real per capita GDP, on the other hand, does not appear to have a clear effect on real exchange rate.This latter result contrasts starkly with the consensus view of real exchange rates determinants, emphasising the unique position of oil-dependent countries.Key words: equilibrium exchange rate, pooled mean group estimator, resource dependency JEL codes: F31, F41, P24, Q43
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Mehrotra, Aaron (2009)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2009
    We assess the effects of oil price shocks on real exchange rate and output in four large energy-producing countries: Iran, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Russia. We estimate four-variable structural vector autoregressive models using standard long-run restrictions. Not surprisingly, we find that higher real oil prices are associated with higher output. However, we also find that supply shocks are by far the most important driver of real output in all four countries, possibly due to ongoing transition and catching-up. Similarly, oil shocks do not account for a large share of movements in the real exchange rate, although they are clearly more significant for Iran and Venezuela than for the other countries. JEL codes: E31, E32, F31, Q43 Key words: structural VAR model, oil price, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, Venezuela
  • Melolinna, Marko (2014)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2014
    This paper studies the effects of demand shocks caused by Emerging Asian (EMA) countries on oil prices over the past two decades, using vector autoregression models. The analysis builds on previous work done on identifying different types of oil shocks using structural time series methods. However, uniquely, this paper introduces a commodity demand indicator for EMA economies that is based on data independent of oil production and consumption data, thus properly accounting for oil demand pressures stemming from macroeconomic conditions in the EMA economies and the rest of the world. The analysis strongly suggests that EMA demand shocks have had a persistent and statistically significant effect on the level and variation of global oil prices over the past two decades. This result differs from some of the previous literature and hence proves that the choice of oil demand indicator in an oil-market VAR makes a material difference for the results. Furthermore, tentative evidence suggests that the effect of EMA demand is mainly driven by demand dynamics in China. The results of the benchmark model are robust to different sample periods and to variations in the definition of the oil demand indicators, as well as to an alternative identification strategy based on sign restrictions. Publication keywords: macroeconomic shocks, oil markets, sign restrictions, vector autoregression