Browsing by Subject "WTO"

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  • Shen, Jian-Guang (2001)
    BOFIT Online 17/2001
    China's foreign exchange system currently combines a virtual peg to the US dollar with direct capital account controls.With accession to the World Trade Organisation, China's capital control regime can be expected to lose its effectiveness in the face of accelerating liberalisation of trade and investment.While the country may experience in the medium term an increase in nominal and real shocks, the easing of capital controls is an inevitable requisite promoting development of China's domestic financial markets and integration with the global trade system and capital markets.Soft pegs with wide fluctuation bands or similar arrangements that retain certain capital controls could thus be adopted in the interim.Then, as China's financial markets develop and enterprises and banks begin to adhere consistently to market principles, a more flexible foreign exchange regime such as a managed float with relaxed capital controls could be introduced. Key words: China, exchange rate system, WTO accession
  • Wang, Jiao; Mayes, David; Wan, Guanghua (2005)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2005
    Using a CGE model (PRCGEM) updated to 2002, the paper explores how WTO membership could affect earnings in 40 industries across 31 regions (and 8 regional blocks) of China during the period 2002 2007.Taking into account labour movement between regions within China, the direct contribution of WTO membership to overall economic growth and development is predicted to be small, with a rise in real GDP of only 6.48% short term and 5.6% long term. However, structural economic change and the WTO shock should increase regional output, especially in the established coastal economies.Regional labour movement is found to increase 69.2% at the completion of economic structural reforms.A slight decrease in the Gini coefficient for income inequality is also anticipated. Keywords: Applied CGE modelling, China, WTO, labour movement, inequality JEL classification: C68, O18, R12, R23
  • Solanko, Laura (2016)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2016
    The phenomenal economic growth in China and relative decline in Russia have made these two emerging economies more similar during the last quarter of the century. Both are large, middle-income countries dependent on foreign trade and burdened with many structural problems that partly stem from their communist past. The domestic structural issues may indeed explain most of the apparent growth slow-down in both of these economies. This short note argues that a significant difference between the two is visible in trade policies. As China is sticking to the “Opening up and reform” policies, Russia is becoming increasingly protectionist. These differences have become increasing visible since the global financial crisis.
  • Balistreri, Edward J.; Olekseyuk, Zoryana; Tarr, David G. (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2017
    The accession negotiations of Belarus to the WTO are unusual since, due to its obligations in the Eurasian Economic Union, WTO accession is not expected to impact its tariffs or formerly substantial trade distorting agricultural subsidies. Nonetheless, we estimate that WTO accession will increase welfare by 8.8 percent per year in Belarus in the medium term. We show that inclusion of (i) foreign direct investment; (ii) reduction on non-discriminatory barriers against services providers; and (iii) our model with imperfect competition and endogenous productivity effects together produce esti-mated gains eleven times larger than a model of perfect competition with only cross-border trade in services. Our analysis is enabled by our production of a dataset on both discriminatory and non-discriminatory barriers in services and their ad valorem equivalents. Based on a new dataset on labor productivity by sector and type of ownership, in our central model we estimate that privatization will increase welfare by 35.4 percent. We find substantial variance in the estimated gains from privatiza-tion depending on model assumptions; but all the estimates of the impacts of privatization indicate substantial welfare gains.
  • Simola, Heli (2009)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Expert view 3/2009
  • Simola, Heli (2009)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Asiantuntijan näkemys 3/2009
  • Simola, Heli (2007)
    BOFIT Online 3/2007
    Russia has cleared an important hurdle in its path to membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the signing of the bilateral agreement with the United States.It will still take some months at minimum to finalize Russian membership, and even longer for the effects of membership to be realized.Russia's progress in the WTO negotiations is an important positive sign for international actors of the country's willingness to further integrate with the global economy.Russia has committed to lowering its average import tariff on agricultural and industrial goods by 3 percentage points, but with transition periods.Russia will also liberalize its service sector, but still reserve the right to some restrictions.It is widely believed that WTO membership will have a positive impact on Russia's economic development by enhancing competition and efficiency in the economy and by increasing foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Russia.Some fears have also been expressed on the ability of domestic companies to survive with the growing competitive pressure.The consequences of future membership will not, however, be dramatic or instantaneous. Keywords: Russia, WTO, trade policy
  • Simola, Heli (2011)
    BOFIT Online 8/2011
    Venäjä näyttää vihdoin liittyvän Maailman kauppajärjestö WTO:n jäseneksi ensi vuonna. Välittömän vaikutuksen arvellaan jäävän vähäiseksi, mutta pidemmällä aikavälillä WTO-jäsenyydellä arvioidaan yleisesti olevan myönteinen vaikutus Venäjän talouteen erityisesti suorien ulkomaisten sijoitusten kasvun vaikutuksesta. Venäjän kokonaistuotannon taso voi nousta keskipitkällä aikavälillä 3,3 prosentilla jäsenyyden myötä. Venäjän WTO-jäsenyydestä on hyötyä myös Suomen taloudelle. Suomen kokonaistuotannon taso voi lisääntyä kasvaneen viennin myötä 0,1 0,2 %. Tämä merkitsisi noin 200 300 miljoonan euron lisäystä kokonaistuotannossa ja 4500 6500 henkilön lisäystä työllisyydessä. Lisäksi Venäjän WTO-jäsenyydestä voi olla hyötyä Venäjällä toimiville suomalaisyrityksille sekä transitokuljetuksiin liittyvälle liiketoiminnalle markkinan kasvaessa. Maailmantalouden epävarma tilanne voi viivästyttää positiivisia vaikutuksia. Pidemmällä aikavälillä Venäjän WTO-jäsenyys on kuitenkin suotuisa tekijä niin Venäjän kuin Suomenkin talouskehityksen kannalta, koska se vähentää esteitä maiden välisissä taloussuhteissa ja edistää Venäjän liiketoimintaympäristön kohenemista.
  • Korhonen, Vesa; Hurtta, Mia; Sirkjärvi, Maija; Salonen, Ilkka; Korhonen, Iikka (2011)
    BOFIT Online 4/2011
    Tiivistelmä. Venäjän talouden elpyminen jatkuu, Vesa Korhonen, ekonomisti. WTO-jäsenyyden vaikutukset Venäjän ulkomaankauppaan, Mia Hurtta, kaupallinen neuvos, Ulkoasianministeriö. Joko Suomen Venäjän-viennin toipuminen on alkanut? Maija Sirkjärvi, ekonomisti. Tuleeko Moskovasta kansainvälinen finanssikeskus? Ilkka Salonen, partneri, Septem Partners Oy. Rakennemuutoksilla vauhtia Venäjän talouteen? Iikka Korhonen, tutkimuspäällikkö.
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Korhonen, Vesa; Lainela, Seija; Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2012)
    BOFIT Online 4/2012
    Sisällys: Tiivistelmä. Kansa kuluttaa, hallitus haluaa investointeja, Iikka Korhonen, tutkimuspäällikkö. Onko Venäjän valtiontalous kestävällä pohjalla? Vesa Korhonen, ekonomisti. WTO:n kautta Euraasian unioniin, Seija Lainela, ekonomisti. Venäjän öljy- ja kaasusektorin uudet haasteet, Laura Solanko, neuvonantaja. Suomen Venäjän-viennin näkymät, Heli Simola, ekonomisti.
  • Chowdhury, Abdur (2003)
    BOFIT Online 10/2003
    Prospects for Russia s membership in the WTO now look better than any point since accession negotiations began almost a decade ago. Good progress with economic and legal reforms within Russia has left the country s economy better prepared for membership. Nevertheless, the economy still suffers from various weaknesses including, but not limited to, pervasive subsidies for different sectors, lack of liberalization and foreign participation especially in the service sector, inefficiency in custom administration, lack of enforcement of intellectual property rights, etc.For all their sensitivity, the negotiations on the import tariff levels and access to the service sectors are the least of the problems.Much more difficult will be non-tariff barriers and the general trade-related legislative framework. Resolving the remaining weaknesses would be a complex process. However, given the importance of WTO-related measures for the overall domestic structural reform, any delay in accession would be at least marginally negative for investor perceptions of country risk. Key words: Russia, WTO, tariff, reform JEL classification: F1, P2.