Browsing by Subject "Yhdysvallat"

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  • Woo, Wing Thye (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 7/2018
    Our principal policy suggestion to China is that, because China’s economy in 2018 is very different from that in 1978, there should be more reciprocity in China’s trade and investment relations with the advanced economies. China should not only give national treatment in the near future to foreign firms but should also set up a mechanism to start easing up on foreign acquisition of Chinese firms in a manner that is consistent with China’s national security concerns. Our principal policy suggestion to the US is to stop equating strategic competition with economic competition. Strategic competition is normally a zero-sum game while economic competition is usually a zero-sum game in the short-run, but generally creates a win-win outcome in the long-run. National economic dynamism and economic resilience emerge from international economic competition and not from sheltering domestic high-tech firms permanently.
  • Newby, Elisa (2014)
    Suomen Pankki. Blogi
    Eurojärjestelmän päätös aloittaa omaisuusvakuudellisten arvopapereiden (englanniksi asset-backed securites, ABS) ostot on herättänyt kysymyksiä keskuspankin riskien kasvusta ja kirvoittanut tiukimmat kriitikot julistamaan EKP:n roskapankiksi. ABS-markkinoihin liitytetyt epäluulot on helppo ymmärtää, sillä kyseiseen markkinaan kulminoitui koko maailmanlaajuisen finanssikriisin lähtölaskenta. ABS-lainojen ostoilla eurojärjestelmä pyrkii parantamaan rahapolitiikan välittymistä ja tukemaan luotonantoa yrityksille ja kuluttajille.
  • Ikonen, Pasi; Vilmi, Lauri (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2019
    US economic policy has recently been marked by procyclical fiscal stimulus and a gradual but decisive shift towards protectionism. Concerns have been raised over the global ramifications of such policies coming to a head. This article presents alternative scenarios to illustrate how the global economy might be affected by different US economic policy outcomes.
  • Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Walerych, Małgorzata (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2019
    In this paper we challenge the conventional view that increasing working time exibility limits the amplitude of unemployment fluctuations. We start by showing that hours per worker in European countries are much less procyclical than in the US, and in some economies even co-move negatively with output. This is confirmed by the results from a structural VAR model for the euro area, in which working hours increase after a contractionary monetary shock, exacerbating the upward pressure on unemployment. To understand these counterintuitive results, we develop a structural search and matching macroeconomic model with endogenous job separation. We show that this feature is key to generate countercyclical adjustments in working hours. When we augment the model with frictions in working hours adjustment and estimate it using euro area time series, we find that increasing flexibility of working time amplifies cyclical movements in unemployment.
  • Lubik, Thomas A.; Matthes, Christian; Verona, Fabio (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2019
    We study the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in the time and frequency domain. For this purpose, we decompose U.S. time series into various frequency components. This allows us to identify a set of stylized facts: GDP growth is largely a high-frequency phenomenon whereby inflation and nominal interest rates are characterized largely by low-frequency components. In contrast, unemployment is a medium-term phenomenon. We use these decompositions jointly in a structural VAR where we identify monetary policy shocks using a sign restriction approach. We find that monetary policy shocks affect these key variables in a broadly similar manner across all frequency bands. Finally, we assess the ability of standard DSGE models to replicate these findings. While the models generally capture low-frequency movements via stochastic trends and business cycle fluctuations through various frictions they fail at capturing the medium-term cycle.
  • Eerola, Essi (2016)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Yhdysvalloista vuonna 2008 alkaneen finanssikriisin syitä ja seurauksia on analysoitu viime vuosina eri kanteilta.
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2019
    Editorial: European Central Bank strengthens monetary policy accommodation – ECB monetary policy strategy needs to be reviewed 3 Outlook deteriorated rapidly – can this be turned around? 7 The ECB's targeted longer-term refinancing operations have increased bank lending to the private sector 31 Dollar dominance means US risks also pose risks to others 37 Low inflation and interest rates challenge central banks to review their monetary policy strategies 41 Alternative scenarios linked to the global impact of US fiscal and trade policies 52
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso (2020)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    Tensions between China and the United States have once more been on the rise. The US has heavily criticised China about its handling of the coronavirus pandemic, cyber security violations, and has tightened the screws on Huawei. Trade has also come back into the discussion after the truce made during the winter, when the countries signed the Phase One trade agreement on 15 January and agreed to reduce some of the additional tariffs.
  • Malkamäki, Markku (1992)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/1992
    This paper examines eointegration and Granger eatisality among the stock markets in the United States, the United Kindom, Germany, Sweden and Finland. The first three nations are the biggest trading partners of the two small open Nordie eeonomies, Finland and Sweden. We apply standard univariate VAR models and a system of VAR models under the assumption of multivariate eointegration, first introdueed in Johansen (1988). Our results from eausality analysis eontradiet the prior understanding with respect to the eausal relations between the Nordie and other stoek markets. Our multivariate eointegration analysis suggests that the stoek markets are cointegrated with one eointegrating veetor when prices are measured in IoeaI eurrencies or in Finnish markkas and two eointegrating vectors when prices are measured in US dollars. The Finnish stoek market is always found to be led by the German market, and aIso by the UK market when returns are measured in IoeaI eurreneies or in Finnish markkas. We also found that the Swedish stoek market is Granger eaused by the UK market instead of the US market as previously suggested. The data covers the period 1974-1989.
  • Ikonen, Pasi; Oinonen, Sami; Schmöller, Michaela; Vilmi, Lauri (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2020
    Stagnation is a period of slow economic growth often characterised by low interest rates and low inflation. It is most commonly associated with the development of the Japanese economy since the early 1990s. In the euro area, the corona crisis together with an already ageing population, diminished productivity growth, and, in places, high levels of debt even before the onset of the current crisis may weaken the economy's ability to recover. There is a danger of the economy slipping into an equilibrium of low interest rates and low inflation, i.e. a liquidity trap. There is also a risk of inflation expectations declining. The policy response in the euro area to the economic outlook weakened by the corona crisis has been swift and decisive. Well-targeted policy measures can mitigate the risk of the economy following an adverse path.
  • Haque, Qazi; Groshenny, Nicolas; Weder, Mark (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2019
    The paper re-examines whether the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation by estimating a sticky-price model with positive trend inflation, commodity price shocks and sluggish real wages. Our estimation provides empirical evidence for substantial wage-rigidity and finds that the Federal Reserve responded aggressively to inflation but negligibly to the output gap. In the presence of non-trivial real imperfections and well-identified commodity price-shocks, U.S. data prefers a determinate version of the New Keynesian model: monetary policy-induced indeterminacy and sunspots were not causes of macroeconomic instability during the pre-Volcker era.
  • Hasan, Iftekhar; Hoi, Chunkeung; Wu, Qiang; Zhang, Hao (2017)
    Journal of Accounting Research 3 June 2017
    BoF DP 21/2017
    We investigate whether the levels of social capital in U.S. counties, as captured by strength of civic norms and density of social networks in the counties, are systematically related to tax avoidance activities of corporations with headquarters located in the counties. We find strong negative associations between social capital and corporate tax avoidance, as captured by effective tax rates and book-tax differences. These results are incremental to the effects of local religiosity and firm culture toward socially irresponsible activities. They are robust to using organ donation as an alternative social capital proxy and fixed effect regressions. They extend to aggressive tax avoidance practices. Additionally, we provide corroborating evidence using firms with headquarters relocation that changes the exposure to social capital. We conclude that social capital surrounding corporate headquarters provides environmental influences constraining corporate tax avoidance. Copyright ©, University of Chicago on behalf of the Accounting Research Center, 2016
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2019
    The dominant position of the US dollar exposes other countries to changes in the economy and domestic policies of the United States, while also creating global systemic risks. The role of the dollar is expected to decrease with time as the roles of other economic areas and their currencies increase. Given the lack of a realistic competing currency, however, it is rather unlikely that the status of the dollar will weaken at the moment, which highlights the need for cooperation in terms of managing risks to the international financial system.
  • Lehmussaari, Olli-Pekka (2011)
    Suomen Pankki. Blogi
    Washington D.C. palasi arkeen pääsiäistä edeltävällä viikolla, kun Kansainvälisen valuuttarahaston ja Maailmanpankin ympärille pystytetty teräsaita poistettiin. Aita toimi turvana talousmahtimiehille ja -naisille valuuttarahaston kevätkokouksen aikana. Vaikka kokousten hiotuista loppupäätelmistä on usein vaikea saada selkoa, kansainväliseen finanssiarkkitehtuuriin liittyvät uudistushankkeet edistyvät kuitenkin juuri näissä kokouksissa.
  • Suomen Pankki (2019)
    Euro & talous 1/2019
    Yhdysvaltojen dollarin dominoiva asema altistaa muut maat Yhdysvaltojen talouden kehityksen ja politiikan muutoksille ja luo globaalin tason järjestelmäriskejä. Dollarin aseman on odotettu heikentyvän ajan myötä, kun muiden talousalueiden ja niiden valuuttojen rooli kasvaa. Koska realistiset kilpailijavaluutat puuttuvat, dollarin valta-aseman heikentyminen on kuitenkin tällä hetkellä melko epätodennäköistä, mikä korostaa tarvetta yhteistyöhön kansainvälisen rahoitusjärjestelmän riskienhallinnassa.
  • Anand, Smriti; Hasan, Iftekhar; Sharma, Priyanka; Wang, Haizhi (2017)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2017
    Available also in Research in Human resource management 57 ; 1 ; 2018
    Non-compete agreements (also known as Covenants Not to Compete or CNCs) are frequently used by many businesses in an attempt to maintain their competitive advantage by safeguarding their human capital and the associated business secrets. Although the choice of whether to include CNCs in employment contracts is made by firms, the real extent of their restrictiveness is determined by the state laws. In this paper, we explore the effect of state level CNC enforceability on firm productivity. We assert that an increase in state level CNC enforceability is detrimental to firm productivity, and this relationship becomes stronger as comparable job opportunities become more concentrated in a firm’s home state. On the other hand, this negative relationship is weakened as employee compensation tends to become more long-term oriented. Results based on hierarchical linear modeling analysis of 21,134 firm-year observations for 3,027 unique firms supported all three hypotheses.
  • Ikonen, Pasi; Oinonen, Sami; Schmöller, Michaela; Vilmi, Lauri (2020)
    Euro & talous 5/2020
    Stagnaatiolla tarkoitetaan hitaan talouskasvun kautta, johon usein liittyvät alhaiset korot ja hidas inflaatio. Vahvimmin stagnaatio on keskusteluissa yhdistetty Japanin talouskehitykseen 1990-luvun alun jälkeen. Euroalueella koronakriisi yhdistettynä jo valmiiksi ikääntyvään yhteiskuntaan, hidastuneeseen tuottavuuskehitykseen sekä paikoitellen jo ennen koronakriisiä korkeiksi nousseisiin velkatasoihin saattaa heikentää talouden elpymiskykyä. Uhkana on luisua hitaan inflaation ja alhaisten korkojen tasapainoon, ns. likviditeettiloukkuun. Riskinä on myös inflaatio-odotusten vaimentuminen. Euroalueella talouspolitiikalla on reagoitu päättäväisesti ja nopeasti koronakriisin heikentämiin talousnäkymiin. Oikein suunnatuilla politiikkatoimilla pystytäänkin vähentämään negatiivisen kehityskulun riskiä.
  • Nikolov, Plamen; Pasimeni, Paolo (2019)
    BoF Economics Review 6/2019
    The debate about the use of fiscal instruments for macroeconomic stabilization has regained prominence in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and the experience of a monetary union equipped with fiscal shock absorbers, such as the United States, has often been a reference. This paper enhances our knowledge about the degree of macroeconomic stabilization achieved in the United States through the federal budget, providing a detailed breakdown of the different channels. In particular, we investigate the relative importance and stabilization impact of the federal system of unemployment benefits and of its extension as a response to the Great Recession. The analysis shows that in the United States, corporate income taxes collected at the federal level are the single-most efficient instrument for providing stabilization, given that even with a smaller size than other instruments they can provide important effects, mainly against common shocks. On the other hand, Social Security benefits and personal income taxes have a greater role in stabilizing asymmetric shocks. A federal system of unemployment insurance, then, can play an important stabilization role, in particular when enhanced by a discretionary program of extended benefits in the event of a large shock, like the Great Recession.
  • Bank of Finland (2018)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2018
    The global economy is still growing strongly, but there are already small signs that the growth rate is levelling off. Growth is still sustained by the effects of the accommodative fiscal policy in the United States and brisk growth in emerging economies. The rising oil price has boosted the economies of oil-producing countries for almost a year. All the while, concerns over the rise of protectionism have increased uncertainty. The growth prospects for the euro area remain good, although the first quarter of 2018 turned out weaker than anticipated – probably due to temporary factors. It is possible that the euro area has reached the peak of the business cycle and growth rates will rise no further. Slower growth in the euro area in 2019 has long been included in the predictions of several major forecasters.
  • Martins, Manuel M. F.; Verona, Fabio (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2020
    We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its predictors) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest statistically significant forecasting gains are achieved with a model that forecasts the lowest frequency component of inflation (corresponding to cycles longer than 16 years) flexibly using information from all frequency components of the NKPC inflation predictors. Its performance is particularly good in the returning to recovery from the Great Recession.