Browsing by Subject "vaalit"

Sort by: Order: Results:

Now showing items 1-15 of 15
  • Välimäki, Tuomas (2017)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Miksi pidämme vaaleja ja kansanäänestyksiä riskitapahtumina, vaikka ne ovat kiinteä osa demokratiaa?
  • Frye, Timothy; Borisova, Ekaterina (2016)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2016
    Published online in the Journal of Politics
    How do flawed elections and post-election protest shape political attitudes? Taking advantage of the largely exogenous variation in the timing of a survey conducted in Moscow, we examine the short-term impact of the parliamentary election of December 4th, and the large protest of December 10th on trust in the Russian government. The fraud-marred parliamentary election had little effect on attitudes toward government, perhaps because allegations of vote improprieties were not new information. In contrast, the large protest of December 10th increased trust in government. Heightened trust arises largely from non-supporters of the ruling party updating their beliefs rather than from social desirability bias, a perceived improvement in government performance, or a “halo” effect. This finding is consistent with the view that autocrats can increase trust in government by unexpectedly allowing protest without repression. It also suggests that when evaluating trust in government citizens may cue not off the content of the protest, but off the holding of the protest itself.
  • Saka, Orkun; Ji, Yuemei; De Grauwe, Paul (2021)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2021
    We first present a simple model of post-crisis policymaking driven by both public and private interests. Using a novel dataset covering 94 countries between 1973 and 2015, we then establish that financial crises can lead to government interventions in financial markets. Consistent with a public interest channel, we find post-crisis interventions occur only in democratic countries. However, by using a plausibly exogenous setting -i.e., term limits- muting political accountability, we show that democratic leaders who do not have re-election concerns are substantially more likely to intervene in financial markets after crises, in ways that may promote (obstruct) private (public) interests.
  • Bircan, Çağatay; Saka, Orkun (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2019
    We use data on the universe of credit in Turkey to document a strong political lending cycle. State-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province. There is considerable tactical redistribution: state-owned banks increase credit in politically competitive provinces which have an incumbent mayor aligned with the ruling party, but reduce it in similar provinces with an incumbent mayor from the opposition parties. This effect only exists in corporate lending as opposed to consumer loans, suggesting that tactical redistribution targets job creation to increase electoral success. Political lending influences real outcomes as credit-constrained opposition areas suffer drops in employment and firm sales. There is substantial misallocation of financial resources as credit constraints most affect provinces and industries with high initial efficiency.
  • Jansson, Jan-Magnus (1962)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 36 ; 4 ; April
  • Tukiainen, Janne; Takalo, Tuomas; Hulkkonen, Topi (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2018
    Published in European Journal of Political Economy, Volume 58, June 2019: 50-63
    We exploit a regression discontinuity design to provide causal evidence of the relative age effect (RAE) on a long-run adult age outcome: Political selection. We find strong evidence of the RAE in politics in Finland. However, the effect is heterogeneous: We find that male candidates born early in the calendar year have a significantly higher probability of getting elected to the parliament but no similar RAE applies to female candidates nor to municipal elections. Moreover, this effect only takes place in the most competitive parliamentary districts and is present only for some parties. We also find that in all the groups where the RAE does not exist, early-born candidates are under-represented suggesting attrition of talent in the candidate placement. Overall, our results show that seemingly artificial cutoffs imposed by the government have persistent consequences even on the selection to the highest positions of power within a society.
  • Tukiainen, Janne; Takalo, Tuomas; Hulkkonen, Topi (2019)
    European Journal of Political Economy June
    Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2018 http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201808081924
    We exploit a regression discontinuity design to provide causal evidence of the relative age effect (RAE) on a long-run adult age outcome: Political selection. We find strong evidence of the RAE in politics in Finland. However, the effect is heterogeneous: We find that male candidates born early in the calendar year have a significantly higher probability of getting elected to the parliament but no similar RAE applies to female candidates nor to municipal elections. Moreover, this effect only takes place in the most competitive parliamentary districts and is present only for some parties. We also find that in all the groups where the RAE does not exist, early-born candidates are under-represented suggesting attrition of talent in the candidate placement. Overall, our results show that seemingly artificial cutoffs imposed by the government have persistent consequences even on the selection to the highest positions of power within a society.
  • Schoors, Koen; Weill, Laurent (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2017
    We investigate whether lending by the dominant Russian state bank, Sberbank, contributed to Vladimir Putin’s ascent to power during the presidential elections of March 2000. Our hypothesis is that Sberbank corporate loans could have been used as incentives for managers at private firms to mobilize employees to vote for the incumbent regime. In line with our proposed voter mobilization mechanism, we find that the regional growth of Sberbank corporate loans in the months before the presidential election is related to the regional increase in votes for Putin and to the regional increase in voter turnout between the Duma election of December 1999 and the presidential election of March 2000. The effect of Sberbank firm lending on Putin votes was most pronounced in regions where the governor was affiliated with the regime and in regions with extensive private employment. The effect was less apparent in regions with many single-company towns, where voter intimidation is sufficient to get the required result. Additional robustness checks and placebo regressions confirm the main findings. Our results support the view that additional Sberbank corporate loans granted prior to the March 2000 presidential election facilitated Putin’s early electoral success.
  • Komulainen, Tuomas (2000)
    BOFIT Online 3/2000
    Vuonna 1999 Venäjällä toimi kolme pääministeriä, maa ajautui uudestaan sotatoimiin Tsetsheniassa ja maan johtaviin viranomaisiin kohdistui laajat lahjusepäilyt.Kuitenkin vuoden 1999 lopun ja seuraavan vuoden alun tapahtumat saattavat hyvin jäädä historiaan ajanjaksona, jolloin Venäjä siirtyi poliittisesti entistä vakaampaan kauteen.Duuman vaaleissa keskustapuolueet ja uudistusmieliset lisäsivät kannatustaan ja presidentinvaaleissa Vladimir Putin valittiin maan johtoon jo ensimmäisellä kierroksella.Ruplan heikentymisen ja raaka-aineiden hintojen kasvun myötä Venäjän talous yllätti monet tahot kasvamalla selvästi vuonna 1999.Teollisuustuotanto kasvoi kahdeksan ja bruttokansantuote kolme prosenttia.Myös Venäjän federaation tulot kasvoivat ja budjetti tasapainottui.Talouden heikot ominaispiirteet, kuten vaihtokauppa ja heikko julkinen sektori, vaativat kuitenkin maan viranomaisilta jatkossa tiukkoja rakenneuudistuksia, jotta investoinnit kasvaisivat ja talouskasvu voisi jatkua. Asiasanat: Venäjä, vuosi 1999, vaalit, talouskasvu, talouspolitiikka
  • Francis, Bill B.; Hasan, Iftekhar; Zhu Yun (2013)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2013
    This paper provides original evidence from institutional investors that political uncertainty during presidential elections greatly affects investment. Using U.S. institutional ownership data from 1981 to 2010, we find that institutions significantly reduce their holdings of common stock by 0.76 to 2.1 percentage points during election years. More specifically, institutions tend to sell large proportions of their positions when Republicans win presidential elections and then keep their positions at below-average levels through the first year of the new administration. Conversely, when Democrats win presidential elections, institutions tend to keep their positions at above-average levels for the first year of the new administration. The difference in ownership rises to 2.4% by the end of the first year of new administration. Changes in institutional ownership in election years are sensitive to the uncertainty of the outcome. Our results also show that institutions benefit from these holding strategies during the pre-election periods. Keywords: political uncertainty, presidential election, institutional investor, investment JEL Classification: G23 (Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors), G28 (Government Policy and Regulation), P16 (Political Economy)
  • Sinersalo, Mikko (2020)
    Finanssivalvonta. Blogi 17/2020
    Talouden kannalta Yhdysvaltojen irtautuminen sopimuksesta lisäsi poliittista ja lainsäädännöllistä epävarmuutta. Kuten jokainen rahoituksen oppikirjan joskus avannut tietää, epävarmuus on sijoittajille yhtä kuin riski. Mitä enemmän osavaltiot ja liittovaltio olisivat vetäneet köyttä eri suuntiin, sitä suuremmaksi epävarmuus tulevasta kehityksestä olisi kasvanut, ja riskit sen mukana. Rahoituksessa kasvanut riski automaattisesti nostaa investointihankkeille asetettavia tuottovaateita, jolloin moni ilmastonmuutoksen vastainen hanke olisi voinut jäädä toteutumatta. Siksi Bidenin tuore twiitti on niin huojentava tieto kestävän rahoituksen parissa työskenteleville, ja laajemmassa mittakaavassa meille kaikille.
  • Sutela, Pekka (2000)
    BOFIT Online 4/2000
    Kevään 2000 presidentinvaalit sinetöivät kymmenvuotisen Boris Jeltsinin kauden lopun Venäjällä ja vahvistivat uuden, ilmeisesti suunnilleen saman pituiseksi jatkuvan Vladimir Putinin kauden alun. Putin peri talouden, jonka tila on parempi kuin vuosikymmeniin: tuotanto kasvaa, inflaatio alenee, valuuttakurssi on vakaa ja investoinnitkin näyttävät kasvavan.Ensimmäistä kertaa pitkään aikaan Venäjällä ei ole taloudellisen kriisin ilmapiiri, ja päätöksentekijät saattaisivat keskittyä pitkän aikavälin rakenneuudistusten suunnitteluun ja toteuttamiseen.Venäjä tarvitsee uudistuksia kestävän kasvun, tehokkuuden ja oikeudenmukaisemman tulonjaon aikaansaamiseksi.Mutta hyvä taloudellinen tila voi olla suurin este uudistuksille, jos se johtaa liialliseen tyytyväisyyteen. Esitelmä kuvaa Venäjän nykyisen makrotaloudellisen tilan, Venäjälle muodostuneen talousjärjestelmän ominaispiirteet ja sen, mitä nyt luullaan tiedettävän uudelle hallinnolle valmistellusta talousohjelmaehdotuksesta.Se keskustelee myös niistä kriittisistä arvioista, joita voidaan tehdä Suomen ja yleisemminkin kansainvälisen yhteisön tähänastisesta Venäjä-politiikasta.