Browsing by Subject "vaihtosuhde"

Sort by: Order: Results:

Now showing items 1-4 of 4
  • Knight, John; Wang, Wei (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2011
    Published in The World Economy, Vol. 34, Issue 9, pp. 1476-1506, September 2011
    In recent years China has experienced two forms of extreme macroeconomic imbalance: an expenditure imbalance in the sense of very high investment and very low consumption, giving rise to rapid capital accumulation; and an imbalance between expenditure and pro-duction, producing external imbalance, i.e. a huge surplus on the current account of the balance of payments. Both imbalances imply a low rate of time discount by both govern-ment and society: consumption in the present is forgone in favour of consumption in the future. The paper examines how these imbalances came about, and goes on to consider whether they can be sustained and how they might be redressed. There is no evidence that the rapid capital accumulation has reduced the rate of profit on capital and thus the incen-tive to invest. However, persistent external imbalance poses a threat to investment if it ge-nerates excess liquidity and asset bubbles. The current account surplus rose remarkably in the years 2004-7. This was associated with exogenous increases in competiveness and in saving, both attributable to the economic reform policies. On current policies, the surplus is likely to rise again once the world economy recovers from its recession. This poses three sorts of problems, each of which is examined in turn: difficulties for macroeconomic stabi-lization policies; risk of capital loss on the foreign exchange holdings; and the threat of re-taliation by China's trading partners. A combination of internal and external policies will be required to redress the imbalance. Keywords: China; investment; consumption; current account; exchange rate; external im-balance; macroeconomic imbalance. JEL Classification: E21; E22; E61; F32; F41; F51.
  • Chowdhury, Abdur R. (2003)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2003
    Published in Comparative Economic Studies vol. 46 no. 4 (2004), pp. 487-514 as "Private Savings in Transition Economies: Are there Terms of Trade Shocks"
    This paper examines whether terms of trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings in transition economies.A simple three-period framework is developed to show that, in the presence of binding credit constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates can be sensitive to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade.This result contrasts with the prediction of the conventional consumption-smoothing model.Empirical analysis with a dynamic panel model further confirms that while favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade have an asymmetric effect on private savings, the magnitude of the effect is relatively small.The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings.JEL classification: F10, E21, P33 Key words: transition, private savings, terms of trade
  • Kajanoja, Lauri (2012)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 5
    Finland s competitiveness has weakened during the period of Economic and Monetary Union, if competitiveness is understood to mean the presence of conditions ensuring the economy s external balance. The profitability of output in the open sector has declined. Unit labour costs in manufacturing point to a more favourable performance, but differences in price developments across sectors essentially reduce the usefulness of this indicator as a measure of competitiveness.
  • Kajanoja, Lauri (2012)
    Euro & talous. Talouden näkymät 5
    Suomen kilpailukyky on rahaliiton aikana heikentynyt, kun kilpailukyvyllä tarkoitetaan talouden ulkoisen tasapainon edellytyksiä. Avoimen sektorin tuotannon kannattavuus on heikentynyt. Tehdasteollisuuden yksikkötyökustannukset viittaavat suotuisampaan kehitykseen, mutta toimialojen väliset erot hintakehityksessä vähentävät oleellisesti tämän indikaattorin hyödyllisyyttä kilpailukyvyn mittarina.