Browsing by Subject "BKT"

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  • Barker, Jamie; Herrala, Risto (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2021
    Since embarking on economic reform in 1991, India has experienced three decades of rapid economic development. Recently, however, there has been significant uncertainty about the growth outlook of the Indian economy in the mid-term perspective. In this paper we use standard regression techniques to project the path of the Indian economy over the next 4 years. The analysis, which abstracts from the pandemic period, mainly serves as support to forecasting the global economy. After the pandemic, GDP growth is projected to rebound this year and then slide to-wards 6 ‒ 7% in the medium term. The analysis broadly agrees with the recent projections of India’s mid-term growth rate by other institutions.
  • Kerola, Eeva (2021)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    The real-world nature of China’s official gross domestic product reporting has been dubious for years. Suspicions grew when the realised figures as reported remarkably matched up with the publicly announced GDP growth targets. For years, normal business cycle fluctuations were replaced by perfectly linear GDP growth figures.
  • Davydov, Denis; Fungáčová, Zuzana; Weill, Laurent (2018)
    Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money July ; 2018
    This paper investigates the cyclicality of bank liquidity creation. Since liquidity creation is a major economic function of banks, their liquidity creation behavior may amplify business cycle fluctuations. Using the methodology of Berger and Bouwman (2009) to compute liquidity creation measures, we analyze the relation between GDP growth and liquidity creation of Russian banks from 2004 to 2015. Detailed quarterly data on a very large sample of banks and coexistence of different bank ownership types (state-owned, domestic private and foreign banks), makes Russia an ideal natural laboratory for study of cyclicality of liquidity creation for banks. We find that liquidity creation of banks is procyclical. We show that the liquidity creation behavior of state-owned banks and foreign-owned banks is similar to that of domestic private banks in terms of procyclicality. We further find that the magnitude of procyclicality is higher for liquidity creation than for lending. Thus, while ownership of banks does not influence the cyclicality of bank liquidity creation, liquidity creation behavior of banks can amplify business cycle fluctuations.
  • Kerola, Eeva (2021)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Kiinan virallisten, bruttokansantuotteen kasvua kuvaavien lukujen todenmukaisuuteen on jo vuosia kohdistunut epäilyksiä. Epäilyt kasvoivat sitä mukaa kun toteutuneet luvut kiinnittyivät yhä tukevammin kiinni ennalta määrättyihin julkisiin kasvutavoitteisiin, ja lähes vaakasuoriksi muuttuneista BKT-kuvaajista katosivat suhdannevaihtelut.
  • Nyholm, Juho; Voutilainen, Ville (2021)
    BoF Economics Review 2/2021
    We analyze the relationship of the distribution of future GDP growth and accumulation of household debt in Finnish macroeconomic data from 1980 to 2019. We find clear evidence that exuberant accumulation of household debt is related to the thickening of the left tail of the future growth distribution, while reaction in the right tail of the distribution is more damped. Thus, there is a link between rapid household debt growth and increase in probabilities of more severe downturns. We also re-establish the result of Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) that, on average, rapid household debt accumulation is associated with slower subsequent economic growth. While the relationship of the debt growth and negative tail effects is robust along our sample period, the association between debt growth and median of the GDP growth distribution varies from significantly negative to zero, depending on the estimation sample and especially if the Finnish Great Depression of early 1990’s is included.
  • Suomen Pankki (2021)
    Euro & talous. Analyysi
    Suomen talouden toipuminen koronakriisistä on saanut pontta vuoden 2020 loppupuolen odotettua paremmasta kehityksestä. Maaliskuun 2021 väliennusteessa talouden kasvuvauhdin arvioidaan tänä vuonna olevan joulukuun ennustetta nopeampaa, vaikka pandemiatilanne on heikentynyt vuoden alkupuolella. Ennusteessa oletetaan edelleen, että rokotuskattavuuden kasvaessa yhteiskuntaa voidaan avata ja talouskasvu pääsee vauhtiin. Talouden toipuminen jatkuu vuonna 2022, mutta vuonna 2023 kasvu hidastuu talouden rakenteiden mahdollistamaan vauhtiin.