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  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2008)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2008
    Although the Chinese economy steamed ahead in 2007 a slight moderation of growth is expected over the next few years. While dimmer prospects for the world economy will restrain China's export growth, domestic demand remains firm. In addition to uncertainties about the world economy, one of China's biggest challenges for the forecast period is the need to curb inflation.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2008)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2008
    China s economic growth slowed in the first half of 2008 as expected. Growth in the foreign trade surplus came to a halt and investment growth showed the first signs of easing. In contrast, domestic consumption continues to grow strongly. Since the Bank of Finland s previous forecast, the outlook for the world economy has deteriorated further, and therefore we have made a slight downward adjustment in the growth forecast for China for 2008 and 2009. The Chinese economy nevertheless continues to grow strongly.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2009)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2009
    China s economy slowed significantly as problems arose in connection with exports and private investment, but thanks to a sizeable stimulus package, a quick turnaround was achieved. China s GDP is expected to grow by about 8% in both 2009 and 2010 and by slightly more in the last year of the forecast period, 2011. The massive increase in lending associated with the stimulus package could lead to imbalances in the Chinese economy, which might make economic policy more difficult and constrain growth. The current stimulus measures have only reinforced the investment- and export-orientation of the economy, while domestic demand continues to play a minor role.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2009)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2009
    The global economic downturn has sharply reduced China s economic growth. As rapid redeployment of the freed-up capacity of export industries to the domestic market is unlikely, China must deal with the changed circumstances through broad monetary and fiscal stimulus measures geared to boosting domestic consumer demand and investment. Even with the stimulus, however, China s overall economic growth is likely to decline to around 5 % this year. Although the country could potentially sustain higher growth, the poor outlook for exports over the next two years severely limits any quick recovery. Given the exceptional frailty of the world s economy, the ongoing efforts of China s leaders to adjust economic policy and uncertainties related to Chinese statistical data, any prognosis at the moment inherently contains extraordinary risks. Thus, we find it prudent to concentrate on the trends rather than precise figures.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2010)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2010
    Although its GDP growth slowed substantially in the turbulance of the international financial crisis, China successfully implemented a package of stimulation measures to achieve nearly 9% growth last year. Robust (9%) growth is expected to continue in 2010 and 2011, and a slight slow down, to 8%, is projected for 2012. In the course of the forecast period, China's economic performance will come to depend increasingly on domestic consumption demand. The rapid growth of credit associated with the stimulation package has lowered the quality of commercial banks' loan portfolios and increased inflation pressure, which will complicate the conduct of economic policy during the forecast period.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2010)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2010
    China's economy recovered rapidly from the international financial crisis with strong sup-port from a large stimulus package. A decline in exports was offset mainly by an increase in investment by the government and state-owned enterprises. In the early part of this year, GDP growth has been faster than expected, and the forecast for 2010 has been raised to 10%. The growth forecast for the next few years has not been changed: real GDP should increase 9% in 2011 and 8% in 2012. Forecast uncertainty is in connection with the real estate sector. A faster-than-expected decline in house prices, for example, would reduce investment, downgrade banks' loan portfolios, and squeeze local government revenues. Local governments' indebtedness has been reevaluated and they are now seen to be in worse financial condition than anticipated, and this could further restrain public investment and consumption.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2011)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2011
    Supported by a set of fiscal stimuli geared to promote investment, China was able to continue its rapid economic growth during the international financial crisis. In 2010, the Chinese economy grew by 10.3%. Owing to massive credit extension fuelled by the fiscal stimuli as well as inflationary pressures fed by rising food and commodity prices, Chinese economic policy has shifted in focus to curbing inflation via monetary tightening. As a result, growth in real GDP is expected to slow down to 9% in 2011 and to 8% in 2012-2013. In the forecast period, in addition to the recent uncertainties in the world economy, inflationary pressures and problems in the real estate sector are the greatest immediate risks to balanced economic development.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2011)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2011
    Chinese economic growth has slowed slightly in the current year, owing to the tightening of monetary policy to curb inflation. Growth will however remain robust. In 2011, China's GDP should grow by 9% and in 2012-2013 by some 8% pa. The worsening economic situation in Europe and the United States poses a risk also for China. The problems in China's financial sector may escalate if economic growth in China slows significantly.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2012)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2012
    The pace of economic growth in China continues to be strong, despite a slight slow-down. China's GDP for 2012-2013 is expected to grow 8%, after which it will slow to 7% in 2014. The slowing pace of growth is a reflection of structural factors in the economy. Sorting out the problems caused by the credit bubble related to the earlier stimulus policy causes problems for the current economic policy. Continuing with the economic reforms forms another hard-to-manage political entity.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2012)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2012
    China s economic growth slowed throughout spring and summer, but stimulus measures implemented and planned should support economic growth in 2012 and 2013 at around 8 % p.a. Over the longer term, structural factors depress growth, with GDP growth falling to 7 % p.a. in 2014. Economic policy leeway and the option of further stimulus measures are restricted by the fallout from excessive bank lending during the previous round of stimulus. The risk of below-forecast growth for the Chinese economy increases with dete- rioration in global economic conditions.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2013)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2013
    Chinese GDP grew at nearly 8 % last year. This year China should still manage to grow at about the same pace. However, China's investment-driven growth model, which is heavily dependent on natural resource inputs, appears to have run its course. This implies that future growth will increasingly need to be sustained through consumer demand. Along with changes in the structure of the economy GDP growth will likely slow to around 7 % in 2014 and 2015. Beyond changes in the real economy, liberalisation of China's financial markets will add to uncertainty over our forecast period.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2013)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2013
    The slowing of China's economy in the first half of 2013 was more than anticipated, but our long-term assessment for slowing Chinese economic growth holds. We expect GDP growth of around 7.5% p.a. this year and around 7% p.a. in 2014 and 2015. China's lower growth reflects structural adjustments. The current pace of economic growth is still fast enough that there seems to be no need for large-scale monetary or fiscal stimulus policies, particularly as stimulus measures are in any case constrained by the high debt levels of local administrations and many businesses. As regards economic reforms, China's new leaders seem to be delivering on their promises.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2014)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2014
    Economic growth in China has gradually slowed in recent years, falling below 8% p.a. over the past two years. China's resource-intense, investment-driven model is slowly being replaced with a more sustainable and environmentally responsible model based on private consumption. This implies lower economic growth ahead. We now expect economic growth to hover just around 7% this year and next year, and then slow to about 6% in 2016. Rising debt and worrisome financial market trends, however, could have destabilising effects. Thus, the situation calls for strong, focused reform policies to prevent problems from building up and creating a crisis that harms the entire Chinese economy. Progress in market reforms inherently alters the rules of the game, so participants in the Chinese economy need to act with the awareness that transition ushers in new types of risk.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2014)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2014
    Chinese economic growth, which has been below 8 % p.a. already for two years, will slow further in coming years. We retain our earlier view that GDP growth will remain around 7 % this year and next, and then fall to around 6 % in 2016. Success in China’s soft landing, however, will depend largely on the government’s ability to rein in indebtedness of businesses and local governments, as well as implement bold reform policies that foster new growth engines and appropriately manage risk. Due to changes in China’s growth model and structural reforms, occasional market disruptions are likely.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2015)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2015
    Chinese economic growth slowed to just over 7 % p.a. in 2014. This widely expected slowdown in growth also comports with our view on China’s long-term growth prospects. BOFIT sees GDP growth this year remaining near 7 % and then slowing to around 6 % in 2016 and 2017. China’s decades of sustained high growth are now behind us, and maintaining conditions conducive to growth will become ever more elusive and require deliberate progress in reforms. Risks to the economy will rise with slowing growth.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2015)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2015
    As projected in earlier forecasts, Chinese economic growth continues to slow. 2015 GDP growth overall should average around 7 % p.a., and then the growth is expected to fall to around 6 % p.a. in 2016 and 2017. China faces the challenge of creating new engines of growth and managing its existing problems. This calls for determined reforms that inevitably will also bring about various kind of disturbances in the economy. Given decelerating growth and rising indebtedness, the risk that the Chinese economy underperforms this forecast is rising.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2016)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2016
    Economic growth in China continued to slow in 2015, with annual GDP growth coming in at slightly below 7 %. Even with the negative market reactions to lower growth, there is little change in the long-term outlook. The modest slowing trend in growth will continue and China will move ahead with structural adjustments to its economy. As in our earlier forecasts, we expect the Chinese economy to grow at around 6 % p.a. in 2016 and 2017. In 2018, growth will slow to around 5 %. As China’s economy opens up to the world, it faces new risks that require more transparent policy responses. China’s high (and rising) debt-to-GDP ratio makes it increasingly susceptible to severe economic disturbances.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2016)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2016
    ​Growth of the Chinese economy this year has slightly exceeded our expectations, largely due to the government’s stimulus policies. We now expect GDP to grow about 6.5 % p.a. this year. However, China’s growth outlook has not changed. We project growth to slow to 6 % in 2017 and 5 % in 2018, and consider the slowdown as a natural aspect of the China’s economic development. As structural adjustments proceed, the role of consumer demand and services in the economy will become more pronounced. Concerns over economic development have increased, and the possibility of a rapid deceleration in growth during the forecast period cannot be ruled out.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2017)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2017
    Official Chinese figures show that GDP growth was last year 6.7 % p.a., which is slightly less than in 2015. The trend largely follows our forecast from last September. As before, GDP growth is expected to slow to around 6 % this year and around 5 % in 2018 and 2019. The basic outlook for the forecast period is quite positive as growth should remain robust and the slowdown appears under control. This requires, however, improved discipline with regards to rising debt and more determined implementation of reform policies than we observe now. The government’s strict adherence to a 6.5 % GDP growth target distorts economic policy and encourages data manipulation to an extent that it may already be an issue.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2017)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2017
    China’s economic growth has picked up from last year. Official figures show GDP rose by 6.9 % p.a. in the first half of 2017, but with the expected slowing towards end of the year, growth for this year should come in at around 6.5 %. In 2018 and 2019, economic growth should keep slowing gradually as China pulls back from debt-financed stimulus policies to a more sustainable framework. This gradual slowdown is, above all, a natural evolution for China’s economy that reflects on-going structural changes. The financial market risks are elevated and pose a risk to economic growth – and even more so if China continues to push the economy to the 2020 growth target with stimulus policies. Uncertainties related to Chinese statistical data have made it even more difficult to evaluate economic trends.