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  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2008)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2008
    In light of last year's faster-than-expected growth of the Russian economy, BOFIT's growth forecast has been revised upward. The forecast for 2008 2010 puts this year's growth rate at nearly 8%, easing to 6% per annum by the end of the forecast period. The outlook for rapid growth is bolstered by a projected oil price (Urals grade) in the range of USD 80 to USD 90 per barrel. While brisk consumption growth remains the basis of Russia's economic growth, booming investment has recently taken on a greater importance. Because Russia's imports are predicted to continue to expand faster than exports, the current account surplus could disappear by 2011.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2008)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2008
    The growth forecast for Russia for 2008 2010 has been revised slightly upwards in response to higher oil prices. Economic growth is expected to remain close to 8% this year and to slow to just over 6% by 2010. Both consumption and investment demand will grow rapidly, but economic growth will gradually moderate as the price of oil stabilises and capacity constraints press harder. Imports will continue to grow much faster than exports
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2009)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2009
    The growth forecast for Russia has been substantially scaled down since last autumn in the wake of a pronounced deterioration in the external environment. The crash in oil prices is markedly squeezing domestic incomes, and capital can no longer be obtained from the international markets. Growth in consumption is expected to fade and investment to decline markedly. Weak international demand is having a modest contractionary effect on export volumes. Import volume will decline much more dramatically, in line with the depreciation of the rouble and soft demand. Total output is projected to decline slightly this year and then to gradually recover in 2010 2011 as the world economy gains momentum.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2009)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2009
    Russian GDP apparently bottomed out in the summer and turn up in the latter half of 2009, driven by modest growth in consumption and export demand. Exports will be supported by a moderate recovery in the world economy, and consumption demand will get a boost from higher oil prices. Investment is not expected to pick up until next year. The modest growth in GDP will also promote a modest recovery in imports. For 2009 as a whole, both total output and imports are expected to decrease substantially, due to the weak performance in early part of the year, but to turn up in 2010 2011.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2010)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2010
    Russia's aggregate output dropped last year by a record 8% even though the economy bottomed out already in the second quarter and posted positive growth in the third quarter. Russia's aggregate output and imports are now estimated to grow faster than envisaged in the BOFIT forecast of autumn 2009 supported by the low comparison basis and strong consumption demand. The growth rate could decline in 2011-2012, but it is expected to remain in the region of 4%.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2010)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2010
    Following an exceptionally severe recession, the Russian economy has returned to a path of growth. The economy is expected to continue to post high growth rates over the forecast period, in line with the BOFIT forecast of winter 2010, even if the projected growth for the current year has been lowered because of a slower-than-expected recovery. We also look for rapid growth of imports. While the forecast calls for a slight moderation of both economic growth and imports in the course of the forecast period, the economy should continue to post annual growth rates of nearly 5% almost until the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, imports are likely to increase at more than 10% pa. To be sure, the projected growth does not match the robust rates of the protracted pre-recession period of 2000-2008. GDP should climb back to its level of 2008, the year immediately preceding the re-cession, around the middle of next year.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2011)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2011
    This year, the Russian economy has grown more slowly and imports recovered front-loaded at a more accelerated rate than forecast. GDP growth expectations have been scaled down, in particular for this year. The economy is expected to grow fairly briskly during the forecast period and imports to increase rapidly, although the growth rate of both is expected to slow. GDP growth is predicted to slow from below 4.5% for 2011-2012 to below 4% in 2013, even if the oil price is assumed to decrease only slightly in the forecast period. The demand growth in Russia continues to be directed strongly towards imports, which is expected to increase 20% this year and just below 10% for 2012-2013. For its part, this propensity to import is limiting GDP growth. GDP is expected to rise to the peak seen in the pre-crisis year of 2008 this autumn and imports to reach the respective peak in winter.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2011)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2011
    Recovery of the Russian economy from one of the world's most severe recession-induced declines in output slowed down temporarily in autumn 2010 but continued in winter. The forecast envisions (as in core of the late-summer forecast) brisk recovery and growth of the economy and even faster growth of imports. GDP growth is expected to slow gradually from about 5% pa in 2011-2012 to ca 4% in 2013, assuming an oil price of about USD 100 a barrel over the course of the forecast period. GDP growth will be subject to a dampening effect from continuing rapid growth of imports - ca 15% in 2011 and 10% pa in 2012-2013. GDP is expected to match the pre-recession peak level of summer 2008 in the autumn of this year and imports around the end of the year.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2012)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2012
    Last year, both the Russian economy and imports continued their recovery from deep recession. For all of 2011, GDP was up 4.3 % and imports climbed over a fifth, and by late 2011, Russian economic output and imports had recovered to their 2008 pre-crisis peaks. Economic growth of around 3.5 % p.a. is expected throughout our 2012?2014 forecast period. Imports should still rise at around 7% p.a. Growth in private consumption and investment are expected to dip slightly this year in reaction to international and domestic uncertainties, but then recover in 2013. Growth of the economy is likely to slow towards the end of the forecast period if the oil price does not rise (a slight drop is anticipated). Increases in Russia's export volume should be quite slow as growth in export volumes of oil and petroleum products are expected to remain flat or decline slightly.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2012)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2012
    While the Russian economy enjoyed growth of about 4.5 % per annum in the first half of 2012 and witnessed fairly good growth in imports, our forecast sees GDP growth tapering off in the second half of this year and settling at above 3.5 % p.a. this year and in 2013. Growth will be slightly lower in 2014. Our prognosis of slowing growth is based on an assumption that oil prices will not rise. Import growth will also moderate to around 10 % p.a. this year and around 5 % in 2013 and 2014. The rise in private consumption will slow, but it will still remain brisk. The uncertain outlook for oil and gas exports will subdue growth in the volume of Russian exports. Both international and domestic uncertainty will weigh on growth in fixed investment this year, but investment growth will revive next year.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2013)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2013
    The Russian economy grew 3.4 % last year. Growth slowed considerably in the second half of 2012 with GDP growth dipping below 3% after growing at a 4.5 % pace in the first half. Russian imports grew rapidly until the end of the year, and were up nearly 9 % for 2012 overall. Our forecast sees GDP rising 3.4 % this year and next. Growth will slow in 2015 if, as we expect, the oil price does not rise. Import growth will subside this year and next to around 5 % a year, and then pick up a bit in 2015. Growth in private consumption, though brisk, will be slightly slowing. The volume of Russian exports will increase modestly due to weak development of energy exports. Fixed investment growth should pick up gradually, but investments are still subject to substantial uncertainty both domestically and in international markets.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2013)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2013
    The slowdown in Russian economic growth to around 1.5% p.a. in the first half was significantly sharper than predicted. The drop largely reflects cuts in investment by state-owned enterprises and the public sector. We expect the Russian economy to pick up this year as recovery in the global economy gets underway. GDP growth for all of 2013 should reach nearly 2%. If the oil price declines slightly during the forecast period as we assume, it will weigh on Russian economic growth. Nevertheless, GDP growth should slightly exceed 3% p.a. in 2014 and 2015 as the recovery of world trade gives a small lift to Russian exports. Although household incomes will not rise as fast as earlier, lower inflation will slightly increase household purchasing power. Investment should return to growth as capacity constraints are not far. Growth in public sector spending will slow. Growth in Russian imports should pick up slightly to around 5% p.a.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2014)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2014
    Russian GDP growth of 1.3% last year undershot forecasts, due to a tangible slowdown in domestic demand. There was a steep decline in fixed capital investments of state enterprises and the state. Consumption growth slowed. Despite a pickup in global economic growth and world trade, growth of the Russian economy will slow further this year as the events in the Crimea cause the postponement of investments. Imports will take a slight dip. In 2015 and 2016, we do not expect the oil price to rise, butt growth in Russia will pick up slightly as the global economy continues to revive. As long as the effects of the Crimean events stay contained, the economy should still grow about one and a half per cent p.a. in 2015 and 2016. Import growth should run at a couple of per cent p.a. Output growth may become constrained by the capital stock and low productivity gains due to weak fixed capital investments. The forecast is subject to substantial downside especially as regards the effects of the Crimean situation. Russia's leadership could respond to weak growth with higher state spending and boosting credit via the banking system. In the longer term, Russian economic growth will stay at about a 2% p.a. trend, if Russia does not move ahead with necessary systemic reforms faster and on a broader basis than in recent years.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2014)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2014
    Russian economic growth slowed to a crawl in the first half of 2014, even if transient factors supported domestic output and consumption. Our latest, slightly lowered forecast sees no GDP growth this year with the Ukraine crisis continuing to stoke uncertainty that is particularly hard on private investment. Imports will remain at a reduced level. While assuming the oil price does not rise during 2015–2016, the Russian economy should begin to recover gradually as growth in global trade and the world economy picks up. Even a slow recovery assumes that financial market responses to the instability heightened by the Ukraine crisis are limited and that there is no further escalation and prolongation of sanctions. If so, we also expect a decent recovery in imports in 2016. The conditions for economic growth and development deteriorate, however, as private firms continue to postpone investment and the state stresses spending on defence and national self-sufficiency in production over market reforms and competition. The downside risks to our prognosis are very significant, wide-reaching and heavily driven by the Ukraine crisis and uncertainties in Russia with respect to investment and imports. The recovery could also be brisker than our forecast if the government moves to stimulate the economy through hikes in government spending or credit via the banking system.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2015)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2015
    Russian economic growth came almost to a standstill in 2014. Since the fall in the price of oil, the economy has begun to contract. According to our forecast, Russian GDP will contract by over 4% in 2015 if the oil price is over USD 55 a barrel. High uncertainty will cause a shrinkage in private investment, while private consumption will be cut particularly by rapid inflation. Imports will be weighed down by contracting domestic demand, the weakness of the rouble and a fall in export income. Imports are forecast to contract by a fifth. In 2016–2017, the price of oil will rise moderately, leading to a gradual flattening out in the contraction of the economy and imports, as Russia’s export receipts recover. There are substantial forecast risks relating to investment and imports, in particular. The foundations of economic growth will be eroded as investment declines and the support and protective measures taken to counter the recession smother reforms and competition further.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2015)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2015
    With the collapse of oil prices in 2014, the Russian economy has contracted this year. Assuming the oil price is slightly below $55 a barrel, our forecast sees Russian GDP shrinking around 4 % this year. Fixed investment is depressed by uncertainty, while last winter’s surge in inflation continues to discourage private consumption. Government spending is set to contract in real terms. Russia’s oil exports are experiencing unexpectedly robust volume growth. Imports have fallen and are expected to be about 25 % lower this year than in 2014. For 2016–2017, we assume a moderate rise in the oil price while the effects of the 2014 price collapse will continue to weigh on the economy still in 2016. We expect GDP and imports to contract slightly in 2016 and then make a slow recovery. Thereafter, growth will remain low as opportunities for growth have been curtailed by low fixed investment and systemic deficiencies that have not been addressed. Tensions in eastern Ukraine, sanctions, and lack of clarity about measures to restrict economic activity and trade in Russia will sustain uncertainty. Implementing stimulus has been difficult through monetary policy, and budget constraints limit the government’s options on the fiscal side. The forecast is surrounded by large risks, especially with respect to fixed investment and imports.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2016)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2016
    Following the collapse in oil prices in 2014, Russia’s domestic demand fell by about 10 % last year. GDP contracted 3.7 %. Oil prices declined again in the second half of 2015. Given the oil export price shocks, we expect the Russian GDP to contract by 3 % this year if the oil price averages slightly above $40 a barrel (about 60 % below the average price in 2014). Russian imports slumped by 30 % in 2014–2015, and we expect imports to fall another 10 % this year due to the economic contraction and Russia’s falling export earnings. With rather high inflation eating away at purchasing power, we see domestic demand shrinking substantially in 2016, including a reduction in real government spending. While a gradual rise in oil prices will bring economic respite and revive imports in 2018, economic growth remains slow due to uncertainties and Russia’s poor business environment. The central risks in the forecast involve oil prices and changes in imports.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2016)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2016
    Russian GDP has so far this year contracted less than one per cent from a year ago. The decline has been constrained by a notable recovery in oil prices and a large fall in imports caused by a weak ruble. We now expect Russian GDP to shrink by 1 % for 2016 overall, with imports falling about 7 %. The oil price is expected to creep up from below $45 a barrel this year to just under $55 a barrel in 2018. While GDP recovers gradually in 2017, growth will be slow due e.g. to inadequate fixed investment and the fiscal challenges facing government at all levels. As the economy recovers and Russian export earnings increase, imports will grow moderately. The main forecast risks continuously involve oil prices, imports and government finances.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2017)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2017
    After two years of decline, we see Russian GDP growth, supported by higher oil prices, rising to 1.5 % this year. Growth is led by private domestic demand which also stimulates imports. Russian growth should remain sluggish in coming years as the economy is already operating near full capacity and needed structural reforms are still nowhere in sight.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2017)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2017
    Our latest forecast sees Russian GDP rising by 1.5 % p.a. through 2019 on the assumption that oil prices remain roughly at current levels. Growth will be driven by recovering domestic private demand, which also is expected to support a brisk recovery in imports. Russian economy is already growing close to its potential and achieving faster sustainable growth would require major structural reforms that are currently not in sight.