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  • (2009)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Economic outlook. Special issue 1
    PREFACE 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 FINANCIAL MARKETS 11 Interest rates 11 Exchange rates 13 Stock markets 14 Housing market 16 Financial position of households and the corporate sector 17 Box 1. Forecast assumptions 19 Box 2. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 21 Box 3. Impact of the financial market crisis on the real economy 23 SUPPLY 25 Output 25 Employment and labour force 26 Productivity and capital 28 Box 4. Effects of recession on potential output 30 Box 5. Effects of population ageing on labour productivity 32 DEMAND 34 Consumption 35 General government 36 Investment 38 World economy and external demand 40 Export markets and export prices 42 Foreign trade 44 Current account 46 Box 6. Consumption behaviour in a time of financial market turbulence 48 Box 7. Fiscal stimulus measures in EU countries 50 Box 8. The effectiveness of fiscal policy 52 Box 9. World trade shock and goods exports by sector 56 Box 10. Finland's important trading partners Russia and China weighed down by the crisis 59 COSTS AND PRICES 61 Labour costs 61 Commodity prices 62 Import prices and domestic producer prices 64 Consumer prices 66 Box 11. Base effect on inflation in 2009 69 Box 12. Are industrial economies facing the threat of deflation? 71 RISK ASSESSMENT 73 International economy 73 Domestic economy 74 Alternative scenario: expansionary economic policy proves effective 76 Box 13. Short-term inflation risks 80 CHANGES FROM THE SEPTEMBER 2008 FORECAST 73 ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 76 Forecast tables T1
  • (2008)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Economic outlook. Special issue 2
    PREFACE 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 FINANCIAL MARKETS 11 Interest rates 11 Exchange rates 13 Stock markets 14 Housing prices 15 Financial position of households and the corporate sector 16 Box 1. Forecast assumptions 1 8 Box 2. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 20 Box 3. Earnings development in different industrial sectors in Finland 21 SUPPLY 25 Output 25 Employment and labour force 26 Productivity and capital 29 Box 4. Long-term labour force outlook 30 DEMAND 33 Private consumption 34 General government 35 Investment 37 World economy and external demand 39 Export markets and export prices 41 Foreign trade 43 Current account 45 Box 5. Recent developments in foreign trade in services 46 Box 6. General government funds and the costs of population ageing 48 COSTS AND PRICES 51 Labour costs 51 Raw material prices 53 Import prices 54 Domestic producer prices 55 Consumer prices 56 Box 7. Recent developments in oil markets 59 Box 8. Food prices in Finland 61 Box 9. Inflation and relative prices in Finland 63 RISK ASSESSMENT 65 International economy 65 Domestic economy 67 Alternative scenario: a deepening prices and wages spiral 69 CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 73 ARTICLES AND BOLES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 76 Forecast tables T1
  • (2008)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Economic outlook. Special issue 1
    PREFACE 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 FINANCIAL MARKETS 11 Interest rates 11 Exchange rates 13 Stock markets 13 Housing prices 14 Financial position of households and the corporate sector 15 Box 1. Forecast assumptions 17 Box 2. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 19 SUPPLY 21 Output 21 Employment and labour 22 Productivity and capital 24 Box 3. Output gap estimates 26 Box 4. Employment and hours worked in the Nordic countries 29 DEMAND 31 Private consumption 31 General government 33 Investment 36 World economy and external demand 37 Export markets and export prices 40 Foreign trade 42 Current account 43 COSTS AND PRICES 45 Labour costs 45 Raw material prices 47 Import prices 48 Domestic producer prices 49 Consumer prices 51 Box 5. Bonus schemes and local bargaining gaining in importance 59 Box 6. Households' inflation expectations 57 RISK ASSESSMENT 59 International economy 59 Domestic economy 60 Alternative scenario: the impact on Finland of a stronger-than-forecast deterioration in the international economy 63 CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 66 ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 68 Forecast tables T1
  • (2009)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Economic outlook. Special issue 2
    PREFACE 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 11 FINANCIAL MARKETS 13 Interest rates 13 Exchange rates 14 Stock markets 16 Bank lending market 17 Housing market 19 Box 1. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 21 Box 2. Are global trade imbalances subsiding 23 Box 3. Finnish government borrowing 25 SUPPLY 27 Output 27 Employment and labour force 29 Productivity and capital 30 Box 4. Bad news on the labour market 32 DEMAND 34 Consumption 35 General government 37 Investment 40 Export markets and export prices 41 Foreign trade 43 Current account and level of debt 45 Box 5. Global economy and foreign demand 47 Box 6. How does the present recession compare with the 1990s? 49 Box 7. Why did Finland's exports collapse? 51 COSTS AND PRICES 54 Labour costs 54 Commodity prices 55 Import prices and domestic producer prices 56 Consumer prices 58 Box 8. Service prices 61 RISK ASSESSMENT 63 International economy 63 Domestic economy 65 Alternative scenario: restructuring of the export sector 67 Box 9. Short-term inflation risks 71 Box 10. The economic and financial crises and forecasting 72 CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 75 ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 77 Forecast tables T1
  • (2010)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Economic outlook. Special issue 1
    PREFACE 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 11 FINANCIAL MARKETS 13 Interest rates 13 Exchange rates 14 Equity markets 15 Credit markets 17 Housing market 19 Box 1. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 21 Box 2. Financial position of non-financial corporations in Finland 23 SUPPLY 25 Output 25 Employment and labour force 26 Productivity and capital 29 Box 3. Labour supply 31 Box 4. Labour input and productivity 34 Box 5. Impacts of economic crisis on potential output 36 DEMAND 38 Consumption 39 General government 41 Investment 43 Export markets and export prices 44 Foreign trade 45 Current account and debt 47 Box 6. World trade and external demand 49 COSTS AND PRICES 51 Labour costs 51 Commodity prices 52 Import prices and domestic producer prices 54 Consumer prices 55 Box 7. Productivity and wage formation 58 Box 8. VAT changes and inflation 60 Box 9. Finland's price competitiveness 62 RISK ASSESSMENT 65 International economy 65 Domestic economy 66 Alternative scenario: strengthening the public finances 68 Box 10. Short-term inflation risks 71 CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 73 ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 75 FORECAST TABLES T1
  • (2010)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Economic outlook. Special issue 2
    PREFACE 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 12 FINANCIAL MARKETS 14 Interest rates 14 Exchange rates 15 Stock markets 16 Loan markets 17 Housing market 18 Box 1. Recent monetary policy in the euro area 20 Box 2. Financial market disturbances and developments in the real economy in Finland 22 Box 3. Household debt 24 SUPPLY 27 Output 27 Employment and labour force 28 Productivity and capital 31 Box 4. Unemployment rate reacted less than expected to drop in output 33 Box 5. Structural realignment in the Finnish economy 35 DEMAND 38 Consumption 39 General government 41 Investment 43 Export markets and export prices 45 Foreign trade 46 Current account and debt 48 Box 6. Finland's public finances 51 Box 7. Global economy and external demand 54 Box 8. Foreign trade in services narrowly based 56 Box 9. Russia and the global oil market 60 COSTS AND PRICES 62 Labour costs 62 Commodity prices 63 Import prices and domestic producer prices 64 Consumer prices 66 Box 10. Inflation differentials in the euro area 68 RISK ASSESSMENT 70 International economy 70 Domestic economy 71 Alternative scenario: a decline in confidence in Finland's ability to manage its public finances 73 Box 11. Short-term inflation risks 76 CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 71 ARTICLES AND BOXES FROM PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS 79 FORECAST TABLES T1
  • Bank of Finland (2009)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Economic outlook. Special issue