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  • Bank of Finland (1972)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 29
    This is a report on the research project begun in 1970 to construct and simulate an econometric model for Finland. The goals of the project and the structure of the model as well as the reasoning behind the specification of the equations are discussed in this report. More detailed reports on the various blocks of the model in addition to the results of the first simulations and forecast experiments are to be published later in 1972 and in 1973.
  • Paunio, J.J. (1964)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 3
    Is a strong labour organisation able to achieve a general rise in workers' wages, and in what way does such an increase affect prices and employment?The problem though old, is still unsolved.When put in this way the question is so general in nature that no unambiguous answer can be expected.The analysis, which will be entirely theoretical, will be carried out with the aid of a comparatively simple model, in which the assumptions are practically the same as those found in the traditional theory. The model is static and the analysis therefore comparative static.
  • Koskenkylä, Heikki (1969)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 23
    1.The statistical background of the investment survey 2.Results from the surveys 1963-1968 3.The reliability of forecasts according to a cross-section analysis
  • Halttunen, Hannu; Korkman, Sixten (1981)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 47
    There is an extensive theoretical literature dealing with the role of economic policy in small and open economies. The models employed in this literature often seem to yield simple and strong conclusions: under fixed exchange rates and in the long run monetary and fiscal policy will be unable to affect the level of output and emplöyment, a change in the exchange rate similarly has effects only on the price level and other nominal magnitudes etc. The relevance of· these conclusions is generally admitted to be confined to the "long run". From the point of view of macroeconomic management, however, the essential question is not whether economic policies have effects in the long run, but rather whether they have "sufficiently fast" and "sufficiently enduring" effects (so that they affect demand and output during this year and next). This is clearly an empirical question. Seldom, however, are the models used to derive far-reaching policy conclusions confronted in anyway with empirical data. The aim of this study is to consider the significance of central bank policy (by which we mean monetary and exchange rate policy) for the cyclical behaviour of an economy with particular reference to Finland. The structure of the study is as follows. In Section 2 we specify a model of an open economy which is simple and yet includes variables reflecting the operation of exchange rate and monetary policy. The model forms the basis for a discussion of the characteristics of long-run equilibrium as well as of the significance of the monetary and exhange rate policy pursued for the short-run effects of various exogenous disturbances. At the end of Section 2, we also make some observations on the consequences of policy for the dynamics of adjustment. In Section 3 a partially condensed version of the model is estimated and used for simulation experiments that illustrate the quantitative significance of policy issues discussed in Section 2. Section 4 concludes.
  • Ripatti, Antti (1994)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 79
    The study is organized in four parts as follows: In part 1, we survey the theoretical models of the demand for money and derive a dynamic framework. Part 2 presents the econometric methods to be used in part 4 of the study. The data and the institutions as well as earlier results and testable hypotheses are presented in part 3.
  • Lahdenperä, Harri (1991)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 76
    The aim of this study is to analyze the female labour supply. In Finland very little work has thus far been done on the cross-section analysis of the labour supply. Even though our study focuses on the estimation of labour supply functions we also estimate a wage' equation which gives us information about the effects on hourly wage rates of education, age, work experience and occupational status. Cross-section analysis of hourly wage determination has thus far been almost non-existent in Finland. Lilja & Vartia (1980) studied the effects of education on household income using the 1971 Household Survey data. The labour supply studies mentioned above also contain estimated wage equations which, however, are not as detailed as in our study. Our study is largely based on a stochastic choice approach, and we utilize various econometric techniques. Special attention is devoted to the estimation of wage and income elasticities, as well as to the effects of fixed working costs and progressive taxes on the female labour supply in Finland. We use microdata from 1980 and concentrate on married women because in the last ten years the most important changes in the labour supply have taken place in this group and because other empirical studies of labour supply have pointed to this group as being the most sensitive to economic incentives.
  • Suomen Pankki; Bank of Finland (1983)
    Suomen Pankki. D 55
    Tässä julkaisussa esitetään Suomen Pankissa vuoden 1983 alkupuolella pidetyn inflaatioseminaarin alustukset. Seminaariin osallistui toistakymmentä keskuspankkipolitiikan valmistelusta vastuussa olevaa ekonomistia pankista sekä ulkopuolisena alustajana Palle Schelde Andersen Kansainvälisestä järjestelypankista (BIS). Keskustelun tavoitteena oli syventää osallistujien tietämystä inflaatioprosessista ja talouspolitiikan mahdollisuuksista torjua hintojen nousua.
  • Helelä, Timo; Paunio, J.J. (1967)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 17
    At a meeting on March 15, 1965 Talousneuvosto (Economic Council) decided to request an expert opinion on "the problems and guidelines for a study on incomes policy". In this memorandum we give our views on incomes policy in general and suggest an approach for its application in Finland.
  • Kukkonen, Pertti (1963)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 1
    1. The study of seasonal variations in Finland 2. The study of seasonal variations by means of regression analysis 3. A standard programme for the analysis of seasonal variations
  • Hirvonen, Juhani (1975)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 36
    This study is a part of the work carried out at the Bank of Finland under the direction of Dr. Pertti Kukkonen on the construction of an econornetric model for the Finnish economy. The original Finnish version of this report has been completed in spring 1974.
  • Lempinen, Urho; Lilja, Reija (1989)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 70
    The study consists of four essays, which are indirectly linked with each other. In writing the essays, the aim has been that each of them could be read as an independent entity. Each essay covers one of the four research issues set as the objectives of the study. With the exception of the first one, the essays are fairly technical and primarily intended for researchers in monetary economics.
  • Lahti, Ari (1989)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 72
    This study deals with rational expectations in a macromodel framework on an empirical level. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of rational expectations in an empirical macromodel. If one tries to scrutinize the aim of this study in questions to be answered, those questions would include the following: How should the ,expectations be modelled in a macromodel framework? What are the reasons for adding rational expectations into the model? How do different forms of expectation formation hypothesis affect the outcome of policy simulations in a macromodel? What are the special features of the policy simulations with rational expectations model?
  • Vesala, Jukka (1993)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 77
    The aim of this study is to survey the competitive and structural effects of European finanGial integration on banking in the forthcoming European Economic Area, where legal impediments to free cross-border provision of banking services will be largely abolished by the legal measures adopted in the EC. The Single Banking Market came into being in the EC on 1 January 1993, and will be extended to inc1ude the EFTA countries when the EEA Agreement enters into force, with the exception of Swizerland, where the agreement has been rejected in a national referendum. A further aim is to comment on the potential industry-specific efficiency and welfare gains and thei! distribution across countries, which are contingent on the expected competitive and structural consequences of banking integration. These gains constitute the basic economic motive behind the Intemal Market Programme of the EC. Insurance firms and other non-bank financial institutions are exc1uded from the study.
  • Aland, Richard (1968)
    Suomen Pankki. D 20
    Rahoitusmarkkinat, joista liikeyritykset ovat ensisijaisesti riippuvaisia rahoitustarpeissaan, ovat luoneet monia laitoksia, joiden tarkoituksena on siirtää varoja tarjoavilta tarvitseville. Tällä tavoin on kehittynyt varsin pitkälle erikoistunut ala, sijoituspankkitoiminta. Sijoituspankkien päätehtävänä on koota suoraan tai rahalaitosten kautta, säästäjiltä varoja ja asettaa varat liikeyritysten tai julkisten yhteisöjen (ei yksityishenkilöiden) käyttöön. Sijoituspankit suorittavat tämän tehtävän uusia arvopapereita kehittäen ja myyden.
  • Ahlstedt, Monica (1986)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 63
    Let us define a macroeconomic model as a system of simultaneous equations describing the behaviour of the economic units that we observe around us and want to explain. Models are the most widely known and used quantitative instruments for economic forecasting and evaluation of the effects of alternative government actions on the econorny1. When models are used for economic policy purposes, it is important that policy makers should be provided with a measure of reliability along with the forecasts. This study is concerned with the uncertainty inherent in economic models. The aim of the study is twofold: first to investigate how to improve the reliability of the model by minimizing the uncertainty the estimation phase of the model and then how to calculate the variance-covariance matrix of forecasts so as to rneasure the reliability of a model.
  • Bank of Finland (1990)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 73
    This book has been compiled from a series of reports published in the Bank of Finlands Discussion Paper series in 1988 - 1990. Only minor changes and corrections have been made to the original papers during the editing of the book, which presents the model as it stood in the autumn of 1989. The previous generations of BOF models have been presented in the Bank of Finlandls publication series D:29 (BOF1, 1972) and D:59 (BOF3, 1985). The BOF2 version used in the latter half of the 1970's has not been fully documented in a single publication, but it was reviewed in a report published in 1976 on fiscal policy effects (D:38) and in a number of articles and unpublished mimeographs. All in all, the BOF model project has given rise to dozens of published reports, the most important of which are listed in a bibliography at the end of the book. The first chapter describes the macroeconomic foundations of the BOF4 model and presents results from simulation experiments carried out with it. The following chapters review the structure of the model block by block. A complete list of equations and variables is given in an appendix. To avoid repetition, the actual equations are not presented in the text. Rather, reference is made to the list of equations in the appendix.
  • Willman, Alpo (1981)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 52
    There are many reasons for claiming that the market for financial assets is not well-developed in Finland. The security market is so "narrow" that security issues play no essential role in the financing of investment, bank loans being the principal source of external finance. This also implies that deposits are the only substitute for government bonds in households' portfolios. As, in addition, deposit and loan rates are controlled by the central bank and are thus insensitive to market disequilibria, no mechanism exists for equilibrating the credit market. For this reason the Finnish economy can be called a creditrationing economy. The banks' borrowing from the central bank plays a major role in the monetary policy pursued by the central bank. The central bank can affect the tightness of the credit market by regulating the terms of the banks' central bank debt. Under the system which was predominant until 1975, there were specified limits up to which each bank could borrow from the central bank at a basic discount rate. Penalty rates were applied on borrowing in excess of these basic quotas. A call money market, on which both the commercial banks and the central bank operate, was introduced in 1975. This market is another channel through which the central bank can supply funds to the banks. It is clear that the familiar IS-LM framework, which assumes a perfect capital market, is not valid in the institutional setting described above. The purpose of this paper is to formulate an IS-LM analogy suitable for an economy characterized above. Two earlier attempts in this field are those by Koskela (1979a,b) and Oksanen (1980). One fundamental difference between their approaches and the present one is that their frameworks lack links from flow variables to stock variables. Hence they were able to study only the short-term comparative static properties of their models. However, from the point of view of the crowdingout phenomenon, the long-run stability pröperties of the models are of great importance. In this respect, the framework specified in this paper is intended to be more thorough. The ad-hoc nature of the model is lessened by the fact that the assumptions concerning the behaviour of the banks and 'the nature of the credit market have been explicitly taken into account in the specifiQation of the financial sector. The banks are assumed to be either profit maximizers or maximizers of the volume of lending under a minimum profit constraint. The credit market is assumed to be heterogeneous, i.e., there are at the same time both rationed and unrationed clients. In a heterogeneous market, the effective supply of loans is always smaller than the notional demand for credit. Thus, credit rationing prevails all the time, with only the degree of rationing varying.
  • Valvanne, Heikki (1965)
    Suomen Pankki. D 10
    One cannot, avoid forming,the impression that in recent years monetary policy discussion in Finland have chiefly focused on current short-term questions; the longer-term problems that the central bank has to face in pursuing its monetary policy and that should also form the background against which its measures are appraised have been touched upon very infrequently. It is these long-term problems, that constitute the subject matter of my paper.
  • Bank of Finland (1964)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 2
    I The Background...1 II Measures outside the money and capital markets...2 III The index clause on te domestic bond market...4 IV The index clause in private insurance...9 V Public's depostis in banking institutions...10 VI Index-tied lending...12 VII The abolition of index linkages in 1968...17
  • Patel, Dolat (1966)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 14
    At a time when international discussions on trade and development are devoting increasing attention to the expansion of trade with the developing countries, it seems timely for Finland to examine the pattern of her trade with the developing countries and to consider the possible positive steps towards boosting trade in directions other than the traditional markets.This is becoming vitally important in view of other factors as well, as for example, the Economic Council forecast contained in the Report on Growth Policy, according to which the average rate of growth of exports is likely to decline from 7.1 per cent between 1954-1962 to 4.5 per cent between 1962-1967. In this paper an attempt has been made to study the pattern and structure of Finnish foreign trade with the developing countries over the period 1954-1965.The examination of both import and export trends has revealed that the share of the developing countries in total imports and total exports has been steadily decreasing during the last decade.To begin with trends in imports are surveyed and the reasons explaining the small share of the developing countries in total imports are considered, followed by an analysis of exports and the factors responsible for the small proportion of total exports to the developing countries.Finally, the extent to which it would be possible to expand trade is discussed.The trends are surveyed in terms of a comparison of developments in the major trading areas, since such a comparison should serve to indicate the relative significance and the shifting emphasis of these areas in Finland's trade. The trends may be meaningfully explained in terms of the three distinct phases in Finnish foreign trade: 1954-1957, when import licensing and bilateral trade were the dominant features; 1958-1960, the move towards greater liberalisation; and 1961-1965, the years during which trade with the EFTA countries assumed increasing importance.