Browsing by Subject "C11"

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  • Nyholm, Juho; Silvo, Aino (2022)
    BoF Economics Review 4/2022
    We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts produced with the BVAR model can be conditioned on projections of several macro variables obtained from the Aino 2.0 model. We study several specifications for the set of variables and lags included in the BVAR, and evaluate their out-of-sample forecast accuracy with root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSFEs). We then select a preferred specification that performs best in predicting the loan stocks over forecast horizons ranging from one to twelve quarters ahead. The model adds to the existing toolkit of forecast models currently in use at the Bank of Finland and improves our understanding of household debt trends in Finland.
  • Stanisławska, Ewa; Paloviita, Maritta; Łyziak, Tomasz (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2019
    Published in Economics Letters 2021 ; 206 ; September "Consumer inflation views : micro-level inconsistencies and macro-level measures"
    Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose qualitative and quantitative views on expected increase of prices do not match each other. Then we consider the impact of inconsistent survey responses on balance statistics and mean values of quantitative inflation expectations. We also analyze expectations’ formation estimating the sticky-information models. The results, based on Finnish and Polish data, suggest that even if the fraction of inconsistent survey responses is non-negligible, it matters neither for the aggregated figures of inflation views, nor for understanding of the formation of inflation expectations by consumers. We conclude that micro-level inconsistencies do not reduce the reliability of the current EC Consumer Survey dataset. Our results also indicate that inconsistent responses are not important drivers of the inflation overestimation bias displayed in the data.
  • Snellman, Heli (2006)
    Suomen Pankki. E 38
    This study discusses the effects of the Automated Teller Machine (ATM) network market structure on the availability of cash withdrawal ATM services and cash usage.The aim and novelty of the study is to construct the ATM equation.The study also contributes to the earlier discussion on the effects of ATMs on cash usage.The monopolisation of ATM network market structure and its effects on the number of ATMs and on cash in circulation are analysed both theoretically and empirically.The unique annual data set on 20 countries used in the estimations has been combined from various data sources.The observation period is 1988-2003, but the data on some countries are available only for a shorter period.Based on our theoretical discussion, as well as the estimation results, monopolisation of the ATM network market structure is associated with a smaller number of ATMs.Furthermore, the influence of the number of ATMs on cash in circulation is ambiguous. Key words: ATM, ATM network, monopolisation, demand for cash JEL classification: C33, E41, G2, C11
  • Fang, Ying; Huang, Shicheng; Niu, Linlin (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2012
    We employ Bayesian method to estimate a time-varying coefficient version of the de facto currency basket model of Frankel and Wei (2007) for the RMB of China, using daily data from February 2005 to July 2011. We estimate jointly the implicit time-varying weights of all 11 currencies in the reference basket announced by the Chinese government. We find the dollar weight has been reduced and sometimes significantly smaller than one, but there is no evidence of systematic operation of a currency basket with discernable pattern of significant weights on other currencies. During specific periods, the reduced dollar weight has not been switched to other major international currencies, but to some East Asian currencies, which is hard to explain by trade importance to or trade competition with China. We examine currency baskets of these East Asian Economies, including major international currencies and the RMB in their baskets. We find an evident tendency of Malaysia and Singapore to increase the weights of RMB in their own currency baskets, and a steadily and significantly positive weight of RMB in the basket of Thailand. These evidences suggest that, the positive weights of some East Asian currencies in RMB currency basket during specific periods largely reflect the fact that these East Asia economies have been systematically placing greater weights on RMB under the new regime of RMB exchange rate. Keywords: RMB currency basket, time-varying regressions, East Asia, China, US JEL Classification: F31, F41, C11
  • Tölö, Eero; Miettinen, Paavo (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2018
    We examine bank capital shocks using a recent new approach based on non-normal errors in vector autoregressive models. Using a sample of 14 European economies over January 2004 through March 2018 we identify two distinct classes of bank capital shocks, capital tightening shocks, and bank profitability shocks. We find that both bank capital shocks frequently lead to changes in lending volume and interest rates for new loans. In contrast to some recent similar studies, we find less evidence for impact on production. Bank capital shocks have further effects on the substitution between the bank and market-based financing and on credit allocation across different borrower sectors. Policymakers may find these results useful when considering counter-cyclical adjustments to the bank capital requirements.
  • Baumeister, Christiane; Hamilton, James D. (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2018
    Reporting point estimates and error bands for structural vector autoregressions that are only set identified is a very common practice. However, unless the researcher is persuaded on the basis of prior information that some parameter values are more plausible than others, this common practice has no formal justification. When the role and reliability of prior information is defended, Bayesian posterior probabilities can be used to form an inference that incorporates doubts about the identifying assumptions. We illustrate how prior information can be used about both structural coefficients and the impacts of shocks, and propose a new distribution, which we call the asymmetric t distribution, for incorporating prior beliefs about the signs of equilibrium impacts in a nondogmatic way. We apply these methods to a three-variable macroeconomic model and conclude that monetary policy shocks were not the major driver of output, inflation, or interest rates during the Great Moderation.
  • Kilponen, Juha; Orjasniemi, Seppo; Ripatti, Antti; Verona, Fabio (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2016
    Revised version of the paper and updated zip file published in April 2020.
    This paper presents Aino 2.0 – the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model currently used at the Bank of Finland for forecasting and policy analysis. The paper provides a detailed theoretical description of the model, its estimation and how it can be used to interpret the evolution of the Finnish economy between 1995 and 2014, including the rise and fall of the electronics industry, the global financial crisis, and the stagnant growth performance since the end of the financial crisis.
  • Blagov, Boris; Funke, Michael (2014)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2014
    Published in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, 2016, pp. 895-914
    ​This paper takes seriously the idea that the coefficients of a VAR and the variance of shocks may be time-varying and so employs a Markov regime-switching VAR model to describe and analyse the time-varying credibility of Hong Kong’s currency board system. The endogenously estimated discrete regime shifts are made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. This enables us to determine which changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We carry out extensive testing to search for the most appropriate specification of the Markov regime-switching model. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour that portrays the timevarying nature of credibility in the historical data. Our own conditional volatility index provides anticipatory signals and amplifies the regime-switching transition probabilities. Publication keywords: Markov regime-switching VAR, exchange rate regime credibility, Hong Kong
  • Feldkircher, Martin (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 26/2012
    Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 43, May 2014, Pages 19-49.
    In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential explanatory factors employing techniques that are robust to model uncertainty. Four findings are of particular note. First, we find empirical evidence for the pivotal role of pre-crisis credit growth in shaping the real economy's response to the crisis. Specifically, a 1% increase in pre-crisis lending translates into a 0.2% increase in the cumulative loss in real output. Moreover, the combination of pronounced growth in lending ahead of the crisis and the country's exposure to external funding from advanced economies is shown to intensify the real downturn. Economies with booming real activity before the crisis are found to be less resilient to the global shock. Buoyant growth in real GDP in parallel with strong growth of credit particularly exacerbated the effects of the recent crisis on the real economy. Finally, we provide empirical evidence on the importance of holding international reserves in explaining the response of the real economy to the crisis. The effect of international reserves accumulation as a shelter to the global shock rises in credit provided by the domestic banking sector. The results are shown to be robust to several estimation techniques, including those allowing for cross-country spillovers. Keywords: Financial crisis, credit boom, international shock transmission, Bayesian model averaging, cross-country analysis, non-linear effects. JEL Classifications: C11, C15, E01, O47.
  • You, Kefei (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2015
    Published in The Journal of Developing Areas, Volume 51, Number 2, Spring 2017: 239-253
    Our study examines home drivers of China’s regional outward FDI. We propose a theoretical framework that incorporates an extended Investment Development Path (IDP) theory, home locational constraints, policy incentives and geographic factors. Empirically, we employ the Bayesian Averaging Maximum Likelihood Estimates method to address model uncertainty. All proposed theories (except for geographic aspects) are found to provide important perspectives explaining China’s regional outward FDI. Our results highlight the importance of government policies but do not support the original IDP hypothesis that outward investment is automatically generated as income grows. Our findings have implications for both regional and central-government policy.
  • Hasan, Iftekhar; Horvath, Roman; Mares, Jan (2015)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2015
    We examine the effect of finance on long-term economic growth using Bayesian model averaging to address model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions. The literature largely focuses on financial indicators that assess the financial depth of banks and stock markets. We examine these indicators jointly with newly developed indicators that assess the stability and efficiency of financial markets. Once we subject the finance-growth regressions to model uncertainty, our results suggest that commonly used indicators of financial development are not robustly related to long-term growth. However, the findings from our global sample indicate that one newly developed indicator – the efficiency of financial intermediaries – is robustly related to long-term growth.