Browsing by Subject "C32"

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  • Deryugina, Elena; Ponomarenko, Alexey (2014)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2014
    Published in Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol. 51(6), pages 1261 – 1275, October 2015 as Accounting for Post-Crisis Macroeconomic Developments in Russia: A Large Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model Approach.
    We apply an econometric approach developed specifically to address the ‘curse of dimensionality’ in Russian data and estimate a Bayesian vector autoregression model comprising 14 major domestic real, price and monetary macroeconomic indicators as well as external sector variables. We conduct several types of exercise to validate our model: impulse response analysis, recursive forecasting and counter factual simulation. Our results demonstrate that the employed methodology is highly appropriate for economic modelling in Russia. We also show that post-crisis real sector developments in Russia could be accurately forecast if conditioned on the oil price and EU GDP (but not if conditioned on the oil price alone). Publication keywords: Bayesian vector autoregression, forecasting, Russia
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Habibdoust, Amir (2013)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 34/2013
    This paper aims to examine the relationship between exchange rate movements and the stock return of firms at different time horizons by employing wavelet analysis. In particular, we use the maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) to decompose the exchange rate movement and the US firm's stock return over the period January 2006 to July 2012. The results reveal that at longer horizons not only does the number of firms which are exposed to exchange rate volatility increase but also the degree of exchange rate exposure increases. What is more, the sensitivity to exchange rate volatility is stronger at longer horizons for importing firms than for exporting firms, which shows an asymmetry in the usage of hedging strategies between importers and exporters. Key words: Discrete Wavelet analysis, Exchange Rate Volatility, Hedging strategy JEL Classification: C32, F31, F23
  • Lubik, Thomas A.; Matthes, Christian; Verona, Fabio (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2019
    We study the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in the time and frequency domain. For this purpose, we decompose U.S. time series into various frequency components. This allows us to identify a set of stylized facts: GDP growth is largely a high-frequency phenomenon whereby inflation and nominal interest rates are characterized largely by low-frequency components. In contrast, unemployment is a medium-term phenomenon. We use these decompositions jointly in a structural VAR where we identify monetary policy shocks using a sign restriction approach. We find that monetary policy shocks affect these key variables in a broadly similar manner across all frequency bands. Finally, we assess the ability of standard DSGE models to replicate these findings. While the models generally capture low-frequency movements via stochastic trends and business cycle fluctuations through various frictions they fail at capturing the medium-term cycle.
  • Molyneux, Philip; Liu, Hong; Jiang, Chunxia (2014)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2014
    We investigate ownership effects on capital and adjustments speed to the target capital ratio in China from 2000 to 2012 and find that state-owned banks hold higher levels of capital than banks of other ownership types. Foreign banks are more highly capitalized than local non-state banks but under-capitalized compared with the bigger non-state banks with nationwide presence. Foreign banks adjust risk-weighted capital towards their optimal targets at a slower speed than domestic banks, while foreign minority ownership results in a faster adjustment process. Capital is positively influenced by profitability, asset diversification and liquidity risk, but negatively influenced by bank market power. Capital ratios typically co-move with the business cycle although this relationship is reversed during the crisis period due to active government intervention. Our results are robust to various modelling specifications and have important policy implications. Publication keywords: banking, capital, adjustment, ownership, China
  • Breitenlechner, Max; Nuutilainen, Riikka (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2019
    We study the credit channel of Chinese monetary policy in a structural vector autoregressive framework. Using combinations of zero and sign restrictions, we identify monetary policy shocks linked to supply and demand responses in the loan market. Our results show that policy shocks coinciding with loan supply effects account for roughly 10 percent of output dynamics after two years, while loan demand effects represent up to 7 percent of output dynamics depending on the policy measure. The credit channel thus constitutes an important and economically relevant transmission channel for monetary policy in China. Monetary policy in China also accounts for a relatively high share of business cycle dynamics.
  • Mironov, V.V.; Petronevich, A.V. (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2015
    Published in Resources Policy, Volume 46, Part 2, December 01, 2015, Pages 97-112
    ​This paper examines the problem of Dutch disease in Russia during the oil boom of the 2000s, from both the theoretical and empirical points of view. Our analysis is based on the classical model of Dutch disease by Corden and Neary (1982). We examine the relationship between changes in the real effective exchange rate of the ruble and the evolution of the Russian economic structure during the period 2002 – 2013. We empirically test the main effects of Dutch disease, controlling for specific features of the Russian economy, namely the large role of state-owned organizations. We estimate the resource movement and spending effects as determined by the theoretical model and find the presence of several signs of Dutch disease: the negative impact of the real effective exchange rate on growth in the manufacturing sector, the growth of total income of workers, and the positive link between the real effective exchange rate and returns on capital in all three sectors. Although also predicted by the model and clearly observable, the shift of labor from manufacturing to services cannot be explained by ruble appreciation alone. Publication keywords: Dutch disease, resource curse, real effective exchange rate, cointegration model, economic policy, Russia
  • Deryugina, Elena; Kovalenko, Olga; Pantina, Irina; Ponomarenko, Alexey (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2015
    ​This article presents three alternative models for decomposing loan developments into components associated with changes in loan demand and supply fundamentals. Two models are based on macro data (error correction model and structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions) and one is based on bank-specific Bank Lending Survey results. We conclude that although loan growth in Russia converges to a long-run equilibrium determined by macroeconomic (demand) factors the convergence is likely to be driven by bank-side (supply) shocks. We identify large and unexplained supply shocks in loan fluctuations during the crisis of 2008–2009, signifying an impairment of credit markets. We also find contractionary shocks unrelated to demand fundamentals or balance sheet structures in 2013, although in general loan developments in 2013 and the first half of 2014 were not at all extraordinary.
  • Juselius, Mikael; Kim, Moshe; Ringbom, Staffan (2009)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2009
    Persistent shifts in equilibria are likely to arise in oligopolistic markets and may be detrimental to the measurement of conduct, related markups and intensity of competition. We develop a cointegrated VAR (vector autoregression) based approach to detect long-run changes in conduct when data are difference stationary. Importantly, we separate the components in markups which are exclusively related to long-run changes in conduct from those explained solely by fundamentals. Our approach does not require estimation of markups and conduct directly, thereby avoiding complex problems in existing methodologies related to multiple and changing equilibria. Results from applying the model to US and five major European banking sectors indicate substantially different behavior of conventional raw markups and conduct-induced markups. Keywords: markups, cointegration, VAR, macroeconomic fundamentals, competition, banking JEL classification numbers: C32, C51, G20, L13, L16
  • Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Pellegrino, Giovanni (2017)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2017
    Published in European Economic Review, 100, November 2017: 257-272
    We employ a parsimonious nonlinear Interacted-VAR to examine whether the real effects of uncertainty shocks are greater when the economy is at the Zero Lower Bound. We find the contractionary effects of uncertainty shocks to be statistically larger when the ZLB is binding, with differences that are economically important. Our results are shown not to be driven by the contemporaneous occurrence of the Great Recession and high financial stress, and to be robust to different ways of modeling unconventional monetary policy. These findings lend support to recent theoretical contributions on the interaction between uncertainty shocks and the stance of monetary policy.
  • Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Pellegrino, Giovanni (2017)
    European Economic Review November
    BoF DP 6/2017
    We employ a parsimonious nonlinear Interacted-VAR to examine whether the real effects of uncertainty shocks are greater when the economy is at the Zero Lower Bound. We find the contractionary effects of uncertainty shocks to be statistically larger when the ZLB is binding, with differences that are economically important. Our results are shown not to be driven by the contemporaneous occurrence of the Great Recession and high financial stress, and to be robust to different ways of modeling unconventional monetary policy. These findings lend support to recent theoretical contributions on the interaction between uncertainty shocks and the stance of monetary policy.
  • Deryugina, Elena; Ponomarenko, Alexey; Sinyakov, Andrey; Sorokin, Constantine (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2015
    ​We apply several tests to the underlying inflation metrics used in practice by central banks and/or proposed in the scientific literature, in an attempt to find the best-performing indicators. We find that although there is no single best measure of underlying inflation, indicators calculated on the basis of dynamic factor models are generally among the best performers. These best performers not only outdid the simpler traditional underlying indicators (trimmed and exclusion-based measures) but also proved to be economically meaningful and inter-pretable.
  • Ambrocio, Gene (2021)
    Applied Economics Letters 9
    I study the effects of expected and realized uncertainty on Euro area macroeconomic conditions. I use a range of expected and realized uncertainty measures including those based on survey forecasts and find that the effects of expected uncertainty vanish once realized uncertainty is accounted for when using financial or news media-based measures. On the other hand, shocks to a survey-based measure of expected uncertainty do appear to have dampening effects.
  • Nyberg, Henri; Saikkonen, Pentti (2012)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 33/2012
    Published in Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Volume 76, August 2014, Pages 536-555
    We propose simulation-based forecasting methods for the noncausal vector autoregressive model proposed by Lanne and Saikkonen (2012). Simulation or numerical methods are required because the prediction problem is generally nonlinear and, therefore, its analytical solution is not available. It turns out that different special cases of the model call for different simulation procedures. Simulation experiments demonstrate that gains in forecasting accuracy are achieved by using the correct noncausal VAR model instead of its conventional causal counterpart. In an empirical application, a noncausal VAR model comprised of U.S. inflation and marginal cost turns out superior to the bestfitting conventional causal VAR model in forecasting inflation. Keywords: Noncausal vector autoregression, forecasting, simulation, importance sampling, inflation. JEL codes: C32, C53, E3l.AC
  • Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem (2021)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2021
    We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves self-identifcation via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions. We find that the world output loss that materialized during the great recession would have been 13% lower in absence of GFU shocks. We also unveil the existence of a global finance uncertainty multiplier: the more global financial conditions deteriorate after GFU shocks, the larger the world output contraction is.
  • Tölö, Eero; Miettinen, Paavo (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2018
    We examine bank capital shocks using a recent new approach based on non-normal errors in vector autoregressive models. Using a sample of 14 European economies over January 2004 through March 2018 we identify two distinct classes of bank capital shocks, capital tightening shocks, and bank profitability shocks. We find that both bank capital shocks frequently lead to changes in lending volume and interest rates for new loans. In contrast to some recent similar studies, we find less evidence for impact on production. Bank capital shocks have further effects on the substitution between the bank and market-based financing and on credit allocation across different borrower sectors. Policymakers may find these results useful when considering counter-cyclical adjustments to the bank capital requirements.
  • Granziera, Eleonora; Moon, Hyungsik Roger; Schorfheide, Frank (2018)
    Quantitative Economics 3 ; November ; 2018
    Published in NBER Working Papers 17140 (2011).
    There is a fast growing literature that set-identifies structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). Most methods that have been used to construct pointwise coverage bands for impulse responses of sign-restricted SVARs are justified only from a Bayesian perspective. This paper demonstrates how to formulate the inference problem for sign-restricted SVARs within a moment-inequality framework. In particular, it develops methods of constructing confidence bands for impulse response functions of sign-restricted SVARs that are valid from a frequentist perspective. The paper also provides a comparison of frequentist and Bayesian coverage bands in the context of an empirical application - the former can be substantially wider than the latter.
  • Baumeister, Christiane; Hamilton, James D. (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2018
    Reporting point estimates and error bands for structural vector autoregressions that are only set identified is a very common practice. However, unless the researcher is persuaded on the basis of prior information that some parameter values are more plausible than others, this common practice has no formal justification. When the role and reliability of prior information is defended, Bayesian posterior probabilities can be used to form an inference that incorporates doubts about the identifying assumptions. We illustrate how prior information can be used about both structural coefficients and the impacts of shocks, and propose a new distribution, which we call the asymmetric t distribution, for incorporating prior beliefs about the signs of equilibrium impacts in a nondogmatic way. We apply these methods to a three-variable macroeconomic model and conclude that monetary policy shocks were not the major driver of output, inflation, or interest rates during the Great Moderation.
  • Saleem, Kashif (2008)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2008
    Published in Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 23, Issue 3, September 2009, Pages 243-256
    This study considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world market, examin-ing the international transmission of the Russia's 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner (1995). We find evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world markets with regards to returns and volatility. While the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market at the time of the crisis, evidence of contagion is clear. Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Volatility spillovers; Russian Financial crisis; contagion; partial integration JEL Classification: C32, G15.
  • Funke, Michael; Rahn, Jörg (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2004
    Published in World Economy vol. 28, no 4 (2005), pp. 465-489
    Given that the value of China s currency has been hot topic recently, this paper explores the equilibrium levels of China s real and nominal exchange rates.Employing a Johansen cointegration framework, we focus on the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER) models.Our results suggest that, while the renminbi is somewhat undervalued against the dollar, the misalignment is not nearly as exaggerated as many popular claims. JEL Classifications: F31, F32, F41, C32 Keywords: Renminbi, Yuan, China, Exchange Rate, Equilibrium Exchange Rate
  • Pang, Ke; Siklos, Pierre L. (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2015
    Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 65, July 2016, Pages 195–212
    ​Relying on quarterly data since 1998 we estimate, for China and the U.S., small scale econometric models that economize on the number of variables employed and yet are rich enough to provide useful insights about spillover effects between the two countries under different maintained assumptions about the exogeneity of the macroeconomic relationship between them. We conclude that inflation in China responds to credit shocks. Indeed, the monetary transmission mechanism in China resembles that of the US even if the channels through which monetary policy affects their respective economies differ. We also find that the monetary policy stance of the PBOC was helpful in mitigating the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-9. Finally, spillovers from the US to China are significant and originate from both through the real and financial sectors of the US economy. Publication keywords: spillovers, monetary policy in China, dynamic factor models, credit