Browsing by Subject "C38"

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  • Bailliu, Jeannine; Han, Xinfen; Kruger, Mark; Liu, Yu-Hsien; Thanabalasingam, Sri (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2018
    Published in International Journal of Forecasting, 35, 3, 2019, 1118-1130
    The official Chinese labour market indicators have been seen as problematic, given their small cyclical movement and their only-partial capture of the labour force. In our paper, we build a monthly Chinese labour market conditions index (LMCI) using text analytics applied to mainland Chinese-language newspapers over the period from 2003 to 2017. We use a supervised machine learning approach by training a support vector machine classification model. The information content and the forecast ability of our LMCI are tested against official labour market activity measures in wage and credit growth estimations. Surprisingly, one of our findings is that the much-maligned official labour market indicators do contain information. However, their information content is not robust and, in many cases, our LMCI can provide forecasts that are significantly superior. Moreover, regional disaggregation of the LMCI illustrates that labour conditions in the export-oriented coastal region are sensitive to export growth, while those in inland regions are not. This suggests that text analytics can, indeed, be used to extract useful labour market information from Chinese newspaper articles.
  • Mehrotra, Aaron; Pääkkönen, Jenni (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2011
    Published in Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 39, Iss. 3, Sept. 2011, pp. 406-411
    We use factor analysis to summarize information from various macroeconomic indicators, effectively producing coincident indicators for the Chinese economy. We compare the dynamics of the estimated factors with GDP, and compare our factors with other published indicators for the Chinese economy. The indicator data match the GDP dynamics well and discrepancies are very short. The periods of discrepancies seem to correspond to shocks affecting the growth process as neither autoregressive models for GDP itself nor various coincident indicators are able to forecast them satisfactorily. Avainsanat: factor models, principal component, GDP, China, C38, O4, P2, Aaron Mehrotra, Jenni Pääkkönen
  • Stanisławska, Ewa; Paloviita, Maritta; Łyziak, Tomasz (2021)
    Economics Letters September
    Published in BoF DP 10/2019 "Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey" http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201907041285
    We assess reliability of aggregate inflation expectations in the European Commission Consumer Survey by identifying individual responses to qualitative and quantitative questions that do not match each other. We provide evidence that micro-level inconsistencies are common in the survey data, but they distort neither the aggregate measures of inflation expectations nor the results of the analysis of expectation formation on the macro-level.
  • Kerola, Eeva (2019)
    Comparative Economic Studies 3 ; September
    BOFIT DP 23/2018
    China’s official real GDP growth has held surprisingly stable in recent years. As national GDP figures influence both policy analysis and political decisions, the GDP growth rate of the Chinese economy has also great international implications. Taking the nominal GDP growth and price index data as given and experimenting with alternative deflators, this paper attempts to track missing fluctuations in real GDP growth in recent years. Real GDP growth in the constructed series decreased in 2015–2016, picked up in 2017, and again decelerated in 2018, in contrast to the rather stable official real GDP growth rates of these years. Furthermore, in recent years the constructed growth rate seems to be well below the official figures.
  • Kerola, Eeva (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2018
    Published in Comparative Economic Studies 61(3): 359-380 (2019)
    China’s official real GDP growth has held surprisingly stable in recent years. As national GDP figures influence both policy analysis and political decisions, the GDP growth rate of the massive Chinese economy has also great international implications. Taking the nominal GDP growth and price index data as given and experimenting with alternative deflators, this paper attempts to track missing fluctuations in real GDP growth in recent years. Based on the constructed growth series, real GDP growth decreased during 2015–2016 and picked up in 2017. Growth has been again decelerating this year. Furthermore, the constructed growth rate seems to be well below the recent official figures. Data available at https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/statistics/china-statistics/.
  • Funke, Michael; Tsang, Andrew; Zhu, Linxu (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2018
    This paper investigates the implementation of regionally differentiated macro-prudential policies in China. To assess the relative intensity of the city-level macro-prudential policies over time, we construct a time-varying city-level macro-prudential policy intensity indicator for 70 Chinese cities from 2010-2017. The empirical evidence shows China’s macro-prudential toolbox has gradually evolved toward city-level policies tailored to granular local conditions to mitigate risks.
  • Pönkä, Harri; Sariola, Mikko (2021)
    BoF Economics Review 6/2021
    The output gap is a commonly used tool to assess the state of the business cycle, and as such, a key input for policy makers. In this article, we employ principal components analysis (PCA) to derive an estimate of the output gap in Finland that summarizes the information of widely used cyclical indicators. This methodology produces an output gap that is similar to the ones obtained from the main methods used at the Bank of Finland and the European Commission, but requiring considerably less modelling effort. The method is also flexible and can readily be adopted to internalize additional information that captures special circumstances, such as the current pandemic. In this spirit, we extend our information set to include a service turnover indicator, and find that it clearly improves the method's ability to capture the exceptional downturn in 2020.
  • Comunale, Mariarosaria; Simola, Heli (2018)
    Research in International Business and Finance April
    Published in BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2016.
    This empirical study considers the pass-through of key nominal exchange rates and commodity prices to consumer prices in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), taking into account the effect of idiosyncratic and common factors influencing prices. In order to do that, given the relatively short window of available quarterly observations (1999–2014), we choose heterogeneous panel frameworks and control for cross-sectional dependence. The exchange rate pass-through is found to be relatively high and rapid for CIS countries in the case of the nominal effective exchange rate, but not significant for the bilateral rate with the US dollar. We also show that global factors in combination with financial gaps and commodity prices are important. In the case of large rate swings, the exchange rate pass-through of the bilateral rate with the US dollar becomes significant and similar to that of the nominal effective exchange rate.
  • Comunale, Mariarosaria; Simola, Heli (2016)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2016
    Published in Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 44, April 2018, Pages 186–217
    ​This empirical study considers the pass-through of key nominal exchange rates and commodity prices to consumer prices in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), taking into account the effect of idiosyncratic and common factors influencing prices. In order to do that, given the relatively short window of available quarterly observations (1999–2014), we choose heterogeneous panel frameworks and control for cross-sectional dependence. The exchange rate pass-through is found to be relatively high and rapid for CIS countries in the case of the nominal effective exchange rate, but not significant for the bilateral rate with the US dollar. We also show that global factors in combination with financial gaps and commodity prices are important. In the case of large rate swings, the exchange rate pass-through of the bilateral rate with the US dollar becomes significant and similar to that of the nominal effective exchange rate.
  • Kerola, Eeva; Mojon, Benoît (2021)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2021
    Data available at https://www.bofit.fi/en/monitoring/statistics/china-statistics/
    It is important to understand the growth process under way in China. However, analyses of Chinese growth became increasingly more difficult after the real GDP doubling target was announced in 2012 and the official real GDP statistics lost their fluctuations. With a dataset covering 31 Chinese provinces from two decades, we have substantially more variation to work with. We find robust evidence that the richness of the provincial data provides information relevant to understand and project Chinese aggregates. Using this provincial data, we build an alternative indicator for Chinese growth that is able to reveal fluctuations not present in the official statistical series. Additionally, we concentrate on the determinants of Chinese growth and show how the drivers have gone through a substantial change over time both across economic variables and provinces. We introduce a method to understand the changing nature of Chinese growth that can be updated regularly using principal components derived from the provincial data.
  • Ambrocio, Gene; Ferrero, Andrea; Jokivuolle, Esa; Ristolainen, Kim (2022)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2022
    In a survey of more than 600 economists, most respondents prefer their central bank to have an explicit inflation target. Roughly half want the central bank to keep its current target. Two thirds of the rest want to raise the target, with a median preferred change of one percentage point. In a hypothetical scenario in which the central bank has no prior history of inflation targeting, an additional 12% of the respondents would prefer a different (typically higher) target than the current one. This result suggests that the costs of changing the current target hold some respondents back from wanting an actual target change. Respondents who are worried about the central bank credibility are less likely to support a target raise. Conversely, preference for a target raise is more likely to come from those who are concerned about the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate. The average estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate in the sample is 0.6%. However, personal views about the equilibrium real interest rate do not predict a preference for a target raise.