Browsing by Subject "C62"

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  • Rantala, Anssi (2003)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 30/2003
    This paper demonstrates that the adaptive learning approach to modelling private sector expectations can be used as an equilibriumselection mechanism in a natural-rate monetary model with unemployment persistence.In particular, it is shown that only one of the two rational expectations equilibria is stable under least-squares learning, and that it is always the low-inflation equilibrium with intuitive comparative statics properties that is the learnable equilibrium.Hence, this paper provides a basic theoretical justification for focusing on the lowinflation equilibrium.Earlier contributions, in which the high-inflation equilibrium was ignored, mainly because of its unpleasant characteristics, are not theoretically satisfactory.Key words: adaptive learning, monetary policy, multiple equilibria, persistence JEL classification numbers: C62, D83, D84, E52
  • Bask, Mikael (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2006
    Published in European Financial Management, 14, No. 1, 2008, Pages 99-117
    It is demonstrated in this paper that adaptive learning in least squares sense may be incapable to reduce, in a satisfactory way, the number of attainable equilibria in a rational expectations model.The model investigated, as an illustration, is the monetary approach to exchange rate determination that is augmented with technical trading in the currency market in the form of moving averages since it is the most commonly used technique according to questionnaire surveys.Because of technical trading in foreign exchange, the current exchange rate is dependent on jmax lags of the exchange rate, and the model has, therefore jmax + 1 nonbubble rational expectations equilibria (REE), where most of them are adaptively learnable.However, by assuming that a solution to the model should have a solution to a nested model as its limit, it is possible to single out a unique equilibrium among the adaptively learnable equilibria that is economically meaningful.Key words: asset pricing, heterogenous agents, least squares learnability, rational expectations equilibria and technical trading JEL classification numbers: C62, F31, G12
  • McClung, Nigel (2020)
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control December
    This paper examines E-stability, determinacy, and indeterminacy in a general class of regime-switching models with lagged endogenous variables. Using determinacy conditions from Cho (2016, 2020), our first result extends McCallum (2007) to models with time-varying parameters: the unique mean-square stable equilibrium is E-stable if agents have current information and one-period-ahead decision rules. Further, we address the existence of E-stable non-fundamental equilibria, and find that Iteratively E-stable equilibria of indeterminate switching models can exist. Finally, we show that indeterminate New Keynesian models with persistent, recurring interest rate peg regimes admit Iteratively E-stable equilibria. In special cases, the Iterative E-stability condition coincides with the Long Run Taylor Principle.
  • Guse, Eran A. (2004)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 19/2004
    I introduce Expectational Business Cycles where aggregate activity fluctuates due to learning, heterogeneous updating rules and random changes in the social norm predictor.Agents use one of two updating rules to learn the equilibrium values while heterogeneity is dictated via an evolutionary process.Uncertainty of a new equilibrium, due to a shock to the structure of the economy, results in a sudden decrease in output.As agents learn the equilibrium, output slowly increases to its equilibrium value. These business cycles arrive faster, are longer and more severe as agents possess less rationality. Key words: adaptive learning, aggregate fluctuations, heterogeneous expectations, multiple equilibria, rational expectations JEL classification numbers: C62, D84, E37
  • Bask, Mikael (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2007
    Published in Journal of Economics and Business, Volume 61, Issue 2, March-April 2009: 97-111
    We embed different instrument rules into a New Keynesian model for a small open economy that is augmented with technical trading in currency trade to examine the prerequisites for monetary policy. Specifically, this paper focuses on conditions for a determinate, least-squares learnable rational expectations equilibrium (REE). Under an interest rate rule with only contemporaneous macroeconomic data, the intensity of technical trading or trend-seeking in currency trade does not affect these conditions, except in the case of an extensive use of trend-seeking. On the other hand, if the central bank uses only forward-looking information in its interest rate rule, a determinate and learnable REE is a less likely outcome when trend-seeking in currency trade becomes more popular. The interest rate rule followed by the central bank in the model incorporates interest rate smoothing. Keywords: determinacy, DSGE model, interest rate rule, least-squares learning, technical trading JEL classification numbers: C62, E52, F31, F41
  • Bask, Mikael (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2007
    We embed an expectations-based optimal policy rule into a DSGE model for a small open economy that is augmented with trend extrapolation or chartism, which is a form of technical trading, in currency trade to examine the prerequisites for monetary policy. We find that a unique REE that is least-squares learnable is often the outcome when there is a limited amount of trend extrapolation, but that a less flexible inflation rate targeting may cause a multiplicity of REE. We also compute impulse-response functions for key macroeconomic variables to study how the economy returns to steady state after being hit by a shock. Keywords: determinacy, DSGE model, least-squares learning, targeting rule, technical trading, monetary policy JEL classification numbers: C62, E52, F31, F41