Browsing by Subject "Chinese economy"

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  • Niu, Linlin; Xu, Xiu; Chen, Ying (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015
    We propose the use of a local autoregressive (LAR) model for adaptive estimation and forecasting of three of China’s key macroeconomic variables: GDP growth, inflation and the 7-day interbank lending rate. The approach takes into account possible structural changes in the data-generating process to select a local homogeneous interval for model estimation, and is particularly well-suited to a transition economy experiencing ongoing shifts in policy and structural adjustment. Our results indicate that the proposed method outperforms alternative models and forecast methods, especially for forecast horizons of 3 to 12 months. Our 1-quarter ahead adaptive forecasts even match the performance of the well-known CMRC Langrun survey forecast. The selected homogeneous intervals indicate gradual changes in growth of industrial production driven by constant evolution of the real economy in China, as well as abrupt changes in interestrate and inflation dynamics that capture monetary policy shifts.
  • Simola, Heli (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2019
    The slowing in China’s massive economy has wide implications. China plays an essential role in international production chains, so disturbances can spill over to other economies in the global production network. We evaluate the international transmission and impact of various China-specific shocks with an input-output framework applied to the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). We consider shocks to Chinese final demand at the aggregate level, bilateral import tariffs between the US and China and sector-specific shocks to Chinese final demand and supply. Our results suggest that aggregate level shocks, as well as certain sector-specific shocks originating in China, may have large impacts elsewhere. Transmission of shocks through the global production network, however, is mitigated by the relatively low import-intensity of Chinese production.
  • Bank of Finland (2010)
    1/2010
    Editorial+Financial accelerator and investment in a small open economy in a currency union+Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for China
  • Song, Zheng (Michael); Xiong, Wei (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2018
    Published in Annual Review of Financial Economics, Vol. 10, 2018, 261-286
    Motivated by growing concerns about the risks and instability of China’s financial system, this article reviews several commonly perceived financial risks and discusses their roots in China’s politico-economic institutions. We emphasize the need to evaluate these risks within China’s unique economic and financial systems, in which the state and non-state sectors coexist and the financial system serves as a key tool of the government to fund its economic policies. Overall, we argue that: (1) financial crisis is unlikely to happen in the near future, and (2) the ultimate risk lies with China’s economic growth, as a vicious circle of distortions in the financial system lowers the efficiency of capital allocation and economic growth and will eventually exacerbate financial risks in the long run.
  • Nuutilainen, Riikka; Rautava, Jouko (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 2/2020
    This paper examines the development of economic relations between Russia and China in recent years, focusing on how the slowdown in China’s growth and changes in its economic structures might impact Russia’s economic outlook and the future of China-Russia economic relations. Economic relations between the countries have progressed favorably over the past decade with increased trade and Russian oil exports to China buoying Russian economic growth. While this trade cooperation has served both countries’ interests, it has also reinforced Russia’s dependence on commodity exports. Like the rest of the world, Russia has to deal with China’s slowing economic growth. Those repercussions, however, are particularly challenging in Russia’s case.
  • Belabed, Christian Alexander; Theobald, Thomas (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2020
    The outlook for economic growth in China remains highly uncertain and dependent on factors such as domestic economic policy and recovery in external demand. We attempt to assess China’s short-term growth outlook with readily available monthly sectoral data of supply-side and demand-side indicators. We also discuss well-known issues surrounding Chinese data and potential pitfalls to medium-to-long-term growth. We conclude that China may well deliver a V-shaped recovery over the very short-term, while long-term growth is likely to be significantly lower than previously anticipated.
  • Herrala, Risto; Orlandi, Fabrice (2020)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2020
    Published in Asia and the Global Economy, Volume 1, Issue 1, January 2021 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aglobe.2021.100006
    We study the global impact of the Chinese economy based on a novel indirect approach where the spillover effect is quantified from a forecast error model under relatively favorable identifying conditions. Findings from the real-time World Economic Outlook data over the period 2004 - 2015 indicate that an increase in economic growth in China had a negative impact on most other economies one to two years ahead. The estimations furthermore uncover evidence at the global level that spillover propagated by influencing prices, including global commodity prices, which tend to increase in reaction to accelerating economic growth in China.
  • Herrala, Risto; Orlandi, Fabrice (2021)
    Asia & Global Economy 1 ; January
    We study the global impact of the Chinese economy based on a novel indirect approach where the spillover effect is quantified from a forecast error model under relatively favorable identifying conditions. Findings from the real-time World Economic Outlook data over the period 2004 ̶ 2015 indicate that an increase in economic growth in China had a negative impact on most other economies one to two years ahead. The estimations furthermore uncover evidence at the global level that spillover propagated by influencing prices, including global commodity prices, which tend to increase in reaction to accelerating economic growth in China.