Browsing by Subject "D91"

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  • Herrala, Risto (2010)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2010
    I find quantitative evidence of a significant effect for credit constraints on durable consumption during a post-deregulation consumer spending spree. The effect varied markedly across age and educational groups. Young households with low levels of education displayed high sensitivity to credit conditions. In contrast, older highly educated households were relatively immune to credit market developments. Keywords: durable consumption, credit constraints, stochastic frontier analysis JEL classification numbers: D12, D91, E21
  • D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2020
    Communication targeting households and firms has become a stand-alone policy tool of many central banks. But which forms of communication, if any, can reach ordinary people and manage their economic expectations effectively? In a large-scale randomized control trial, we show that communication manages expectations when it focuses on policy targets and objectives rather than on the instruments designed to reach such objectives. It is especially the least sophisticated demographic groups, whom central banks typically struggle to reach, who react more to target-based communication. When exposed to target-based communication, these groups are also more likely to believe that policies will benefit households and the economy. Target-based communication enhances policy effectiveness and contributes to strengthen the public’s trust in central banks, which is crucial to ensure the effectiveness of their policies.
  • Hyytinen, Ari; Putkuri, Hanna (2018)
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 1; February 2018
    Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2012.
    We use Finnish household-level data from 1994 to 2013 to measure how often and what kind of forecast errors households make and how the errors are linked to the households' borrowing behavior and overindebtedness. We find that those households that make the largest optimistic forecast errors have greater debt-to-income ratios. They also are more likely to report that they suffer from excessive debt loads and have problems in coping with their bills. There are no such systematic effects for the households that make pessimistic forecast errors.
  • D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael (2021)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2021
    Many consumers below the top of the distribution of a representative population by cognitive abilities barely react to monetary and fiscal policies that aim to stimulate consumption and borrowing, even when they are financially unconstrained and despite substantial debt capacity. Differences in income, formal education levels, economic expectations, and a large set of registry-based demographics do not explain these facts. Heterogeneous cognitive abilities thus act as human frictions in the transmission of economic policies that operate through the household sector and might imply redistribution from low- to high-cognitive ability agents. We conclude by discussing how our findings inform the microfoundation of behavioral macroeconomic theory.
  • D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2019
    Revised version uploaded 30 September 2019.
    We use administrative and survey-based micro data to study the relationship between cognitive abilities (IQ), the formation of economic expectations, and the choices of a representative male population. Men above the median IQ (high-IQ men) display 50% lower forecast errors for inflation than other men. The inflation expectations and perceptions of high-IQ men, but not others, are positively correlated over time. High-IQ men are also less likely to round and to forecast implausible values. In terms of choice, only high-IQ men increase their propensity to consume when expecting higher inflation as the consumer Euler equation prescribes. High-IQ men are also forward-looking - they are more likely to save for retirement conditional on saving. Education levels, income, socio-economic status, and employment status, although important, do not explain the variation in expectations and choice by IQ. Our results have implications for heterogeneous-beliefs models of household consumption, saving, and investment.