Browsing by Subject "E65"

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  • Juselius, Mikael; Tarashev, Nikola (2021)
    BoF Economics Review 3/2021
    While corporate credit losses have been low since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, their future evolution is quite uncertain. Using a forecasting model with a solid track record, we find that the baseline scenario (“expected losses”) is benign up to 2024. This is due to policy support measures that have kept debt service costs low. However, high indebtedness, built up when the pandemic impaired real activity, suggests increased tail risks: plausible deviations from the baseline scenario (“unexpected losses”) feature ballooning corporate insolvencies. Taken at face value, the low expected loss forecasts are consistent with low bank provisions, whereas the high unexpected loss forecasts call for substantial capital.
  • Karas, Alexei; Pyle, William; Schoors, Koen (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2019
    Using evidence from Russia, we explore the effect of the introduction of deposit insurance on bank risk. Drawing on within-bank variation in the ratio of firm deposits to total household and firm deposits, so as to capture the magnitude of the decrease in market discipline after the introduction of deposit insurance, we demonstrate for private, domestic banks that larger declines in market discipline generate larger increases in traditional measures of risk. These results hold in a difference-in-difference setting in which state and foreign-owned banks, whose deposit insurance regime does not change, serve as a control.
  • D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2020
    Communication targeting households and firms has become a stand-alone policy tool of many central banks. But which forms of communication, if any, can reach ordinary people and manage their economic expectations effectively? In a large-scale randomized control trial, we show that communication manages expectations when it focuses on policy targets and objectives rather than on the instruments designed to reach such objectives. It is especially the least sophisticated demographic groups, whom central banks typically struggle to reach, who react more to target-based communication. When exposed to target-based communication, these groups are also more likely to believe that policies will benefit households and the economy. Target-based communication enhances policy effectiveness and contributes to strengthen the public’s trust in central banks, which is crucial to ensure the effectiveness of their policies.
  • Ambrocio, Gene (2020)
    BoF Economics Review 6/2020
    Confidence dropped universally across countries and sectors during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Latest survey data suggest that confidence is on track for a v-shaped recovery. The swift implementation of stringent containment measures as well as economic stimulus policy measures, along with several other country characteristics, correlate well with both the drop and recovery of confidence across countries.
  • Arola, Mika (2006)
    Suomen Pankki. E 37
    The main objective of the study is to evaluate the Finnish central government's foreign borrowing between the years 1862 and 1938. Most of this period was characterised by deep capital market integration that bears resemblance to the liberal world financial order at the turn of the millennium.The main aim is to analyse the credit risk associated with the state and its determination by evaluating the world financial market centres' perception of Finland.By doing this, the study is also expected to provide an additional dimension to Finland's political and economic history by incorporating into the research the assessments of international capital markets regarding Finland during a period that witnessed profound political and economic changes in Finnish society.The evaluation of the credit risk mainly relies on exchange-rate risk free time series of the state's foreign bonds.They have been collected from quotations in the stock exchanges in Helsinki, Hamburg, Paris and London.In addition, it investigates Finland's exposure to short-term debt and Moody's credit ratings assigned to Finland.The study emphasises the importance of the political risk. It suggests that the hey-day of the state's reliance on foreign capital markets took place during last few decades of the 19th century when Finland enjoyed a wide autonomy in the Russian Empire and prudently managed its economy, highlighted in Finland's adherence to the international gold standard.Political confrontations in Finland and, in particular, in Russia and the turbulence of the world financial system prevented the return of this beneficial position again.Through its issuance of foreign bonds the state was able to import substantial amounts of foreign capital, which was sorely needed to foster economic development in Finland.Moreover, the study argues that the state's presence in the western capital markets not only had economic benefits, but it also increased the international awareness of Finland's distinct and separate status in the Russian Empire and later underlined its position as an independent republic. Keywords: credit risk, government borrowing, financial market, government bonds, state finances JEL classification: E65, G15, H63, N13
  • D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael (2021)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2021
    Many consumers below the top of the distribution of a representative population by cognitive abilities barely react to monetary and fiscal policies that aim to stimulate consumption and borrowing, even when they are financially unconstrained and despite substantial debt capacity. Differences in income, formal education levels, economic expectations, and a large set of registry-based demographics do not explain these facts. Heterogeneous cognitive abilities thus act as human frictions in the transmission of economic policies that operate through the household sector and might imply redistribution from low- to high-cognitive ability agents. We conclude by discussing how our findings inform the microfoundation of behavioral macroeconomic theory.
  • D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2019
    Revised version uploaded 30 September 2019.
    We use administrative and survey-based micro data to study the relationship between cognitive abilities (IQ), the formation of economic expectations, and the choices of a representative male population. Men above the median IQ (high-IQ men) display 50% lower forecast errors for inflation than other men. The inflation expectations and perceptions of high-IQ men, but not others, are positively correlated over time. High-IQ men are also less likely to round and to forecast implausible values. In terms of choice, only high-IQ men increase their propensity to consume when expecting higher inflation as the consumer Euler equation prescribes. High-IQ men are also forward-looking - they are more likely to save for retirement conditional on saving. Education levels, income, socio-economic status, and employment status, although important, do not explain the variation in expectations and choice by IQ. Our results have implications for heterogeneous-beliefs models of household consumption, saving, and investment.
  • Korhonen, Tapio (2011)
    Suomen Pankki. Yleistajuiset selvitykset. A 114
    Rahoitus- ja valuuttamarkkinoita säännösteltiin toisen maailmansodan jälkeen pitkään niin Suomessa kuin useimmissa muissakin Euroopan maissa. Vielä 1970-luvulla Suomen Pankki säänteli rahoitustoimintaa varsin kattavasti. Aitoja kotimaisia rahamarkkinoita ei säännöstelykaudella Suomessa ollut. Kansantalouden korkotaso asetettiin poliittisesti ohjaamalla laajavaikutteista peruskorkoa. Rahoituskasvun rajaaminen perustui pankkien keskuspankkivelan kustannusten sääntelyyn. Aitoa määrällistä säännöstelyä ei kotimaisessa rahoituksessa kuitenkaan juuri käytetty. Rahapolitiikan itsenäisyyden takasi jokseenkin kattava ulkomaisten pääomanliikkeiden säännöstely, jonka kireys vaihteli kuitenkin tuntuvasti. Valuuttakurssia ohjattiin poliittisesti. Rahoitus- ja valuuttamarkkinat vapautettiin vaiheittain 1980-luvun kuluessa. Se vaati rahapolitiikan ohjausjärjestelmän uudistamisen markkinaehtoiseksi. Liberalisoinnissa myötäiltiin kansainvälistä kehitystä epävakaan kotimaisen rahoitusmarkkinakehityksen oloissa. Suomen talous ei sopeutunutkaan ongelmitta vapaisiin markkinoihin. Rahoitusriskejä otettiin liikaa, erityisesti siirtymällä laajalti käyttämään ulkomaan valuutan määräisiä luottoja kiinteistöalalla ja yleensäkin suljetussa sektorissa. Rahoitusmarkkinat olivat säännöstely- ja inflaatiokauden jäljiltä yksinkertaiset ja suppeat, mutta silti markkinat ajautuivat 1980-luvun lopulla kansantalouden kehityksen kannalta vaikeisiin tasapaino-ongelmiin. Avainsanat: Suomen Pankki, rahapolitiikka, säännöstely, liberalisointi JEL classification: N14, N24, E51, E52, E58, E65
  • Korhonen, Tapio (2011)
    Suomen Pankki. Yleistajuiset selvitykset. A 115
    Suomen talous ajautui 1990-luvun alussa poikkeuksellisen syvään talous- ja pankkikriisiin, josta kuitenkin elvyttiin vuosikymmenen loppupuolella vahvaan kasvuun. Talous- ja pankkikriisin syvyys aiheutui säännöstely- ja inflaatiokaudelta periytyneistä taloudellisista, institutionaalisista ja asenteellisista tekijöistä. Rahoitusmarkkinat oli vapautettu ja rahapolitiikan ohjausjärjestelmä uudistettu keskeisiltä osin ennen kriisiä. Rahoitusrajoitteiden väljenemisellä oli vaikutuksensa kriisiin, mutta taustalla vaikuttivat myös kansainväliset tekijät, kuten korkea korkotaso ja Neuvostoliiton hajoamista seurannut Suomen idänkaupan romahdus. Merkittävä taustatekijä oli säännöstelykaudelta periytynyt yritysten heikko rahoitusrakenne. Rahapolitiikan välineitä kehitettiin kriisin aikana enää suhteellisen vähän. Kotimaisen rahapolitiikan merkitys kriisin hoidossa jäikin toissijaiseksi, sillä korkotaso määräytyi oleellisilta osiltaan ulkomaisen kehityksen perusteella. Kansantalouden rahoituksen turvaaminen jäi kriittisimmissä vaiheissa valtion runsaan ulkomaisen lainanoton varaan. Suomen Pankin kannalta merkittävät muutokset toteutuivat 1990-luvulla valuuttakurssijärjestelmässä. Valuuttakytkennässä siirryttiin ensin kauppapainoisesta korista ecukoriin vuonna 1991, sitten kiinteä kurssi vaihdettiin kelluntaan vuonna 1992, markka kytkettiin EU:n valuuttakurssimekanismiin (ERM) vuonna 1996 ja vaihdettiin lopuksi euroksi vuoden 1999 alusta. Rahaliittoon sopeutuminen vaati laajan uudistustyön sekä Suomen Pankin eri toiminnoissa että Suomen rahoitusmarkkinainstituutioissa. Avainsanat: Suomen Pankki, rahapolitiikka, talouskriisi, pankkikriisi, talous- ja rahaliitto JEL classification: N14, N24, E51, E52, E58, E65
  • Honkapohja, Seppo (2013)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2013
    Published in Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 39, Part B, March 2014, Pages 260-271
    The paper provides an overview of the sovereign debt crisis. I first consider the build-up of the crisis.I then discuss policy choices when a financial crisis erupts and assess the adjustment processes in the crisis countries, including alternatives to policies of austerity. Finally I take up institutional improvements that can help in resolving the current crisis and avoiding a future one. These include the banking union and the strengthened Stability and Growth Pact and related institutional rules. Current high levels of public and private debt together with still weak bank balance sheets are a major unsolved problem. Publication keywords: financial crisis, sovereign debt, European integration, E62, E65, F36, Seppo Honkapohja