Browsing by Subject "F34"

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  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Slacik, Tomás (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2007
    Published in Economics of Transition, Volume 18, Issue 1, January 2010, Pages 123-141
    We propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants.Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis happening after one week but in less than a month.We give empirical evidence that the indicator performs well for two important currency crises in Eastern Europe: the crisis in the Czech Republic in 1997 and the Russian crisis in 1998. Keywords: Currency crisis, term structure of interest rates, transition economies. JEL classi.cation: F31, F34, E43.
  • Mattlin, Mikael; Nojonen, Matti (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2011
    Published in Journal of Contemporary China, Volume 24, Issue 94, 2015: 701-720 as Conditionality and Path Dependence in Chinese Lending.
    China.s long insistence on non-interference and sovereignty and frequent criticism of Western in-terventionism has contributed to a widely held impression that China lends and invests abroad without attaching policy conditions. This discussion paper surveys the general policy debate on conditionality in lending, as well as China.s own debate on conditionality. We then examine bila-teral loans provided by Chinese state-owned policy banks, notably China Exim Bank, arguing that the assumption of China.s shunning conditionality is valid only if the term is taken narrowly to imply the specific set of policy conditions (e.g. privatisation and financial liberalisation) routinely called for by World Bank Group lenders. Based on a literature review and analysis of loan features along with tentative evidence from empirical cases of Chinese bilateral lending, we identify four hypothetical types of conditionality: political conditionality, embedded conditionality, cross-conditionality and emergent conditionality. In all likelihood the last three types of conditionality are not imposed by a unitary state actor, but emerge as an indirect consequence of the voluminous busi-ness activities of Chinese state-linked lenders and enterprises in developing countries. Keywords: China, bilateral lending, conditionality, policy banks JEL codes: F34, F36, F59
  • Saka, Orkun (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2019
    European banks have been criticized for holding excessive domestic government debt during economic downturns, which may have intensified the diabolic loop between sovereign and bank credit risks. By using a novel bank-level dataset covering the entire timeline of the Eurozone crisis, I first re-confirm that the crisis led to the reallocation of sovereign debt from foreign to domestic banks. This reallocation was only visible for banks as opposed to other domestic private agents and it cannot be explained by the banks' risk-shifting tendency. In contrast to the recent literature focusing only on sovereign debt, I show that banks' private sector exposures were (at least) equally affected by a rise in home bias. Finally, consistent with these patterns, I propose a new debt reallocation channel based on informational frictions and show that informationally closer foreign banks increase their relative exposures when sovereign risk rises. The effect of informational closeness is economically meaningful and robust to the use of different information measures and controls for alternative channels of sovereign debt reallocation.
  • Sarlin, Peter; Ramsay, Bruce A. (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2014
    This paper operationalizes early theoretical contributions of Hyman Minsky and applies these in the context of economic sectors and nations. Following the view of boom-bust asset cycles, depicted by the endogenous build-up of risks and their abrupt unraveling, Minsky highlighted the relationship between debt obligations and cash flows. While leverage is oftentimes linked to the vulnerability of a nation, and hence systemic risk, one less explored measure of leverage is the debt-to-cash flow ratio (Debt/CF). Cash flows certainly have a well-known, academically verified connection to the ability of corporations to service and repay corporate debt. This paper investigates whether the relationship between the flow of a nation's savings to its stock of total debt provides a means for understanding systemic risks. For a panel of 33 nations, we explore historic Debt/CF trends, as well as apply the same procedure to individual economic sectors. This assessment of systemic risk is arranged for presentation within a four-zone framework. In terms of an early-warning indicator, we show that the Debt/CF ratio e effectively stratifies systemic risks, and offers a useful platform toward macro-financial sustainability. Keywords: debt-to-cash flow, debt-to-gross saving, systemic risk, four-zone framework JEL codes: E210, F340, G010, H630
  • Ponomarenko, Alexey; Solovyeva, Alexandra; Vasilieva, Elena (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 36/2011
    Published in Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Vol. 6, No. 2, 221–243 (2013)
    We review some aspects of financial dollarization in Russia, applying the main relevant theories to analyze the dynamics of several dollarization indicators. An econometric model of the short run dynamics of deposit and loan dollarization is estimated for the last decade. We find that ruble appreciation was the main driver of the de-dollarization that occurred then and of the later episode of renewed dollarization. We estimate the overall (and sector-al) currency mismatches of the Russian economy. The results show a gradual improvement of the net foreign currency position of the public sector, where we have seen significant accumulation of international reserves by the Bank of Russia and repayment of government debt. Evidence is also presented for the significant currency risk vulnerability of the nonbanking private sector. Several existing empirical studies are examined in order to assess the growth losses of the Russian economy following the crisis of 2008, which was linked with the financial dollarization. Keywords: Financial dollarization, currency mismatch, balance sheet effects, Russia. JEL classification: E44, F34, G32.
  • Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka (Wiley, 2018)
    Pacific Economic Review 3
    Published in BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2015.
    We review previous research on China's business cycle correlation with other economies applying meta‐analysis. We survey 71 papers analysing the different periods of Chinese economic development since the 1950s that were published in English or Chinese. We confirm that Pacific Rim economies in particular have relatively high business cycle correlation with China. It appears that many characteristics of the studies and authors influence the reported degree of business cycle synchronization. For instance, Chinese‐language papers report higher correlation coefficients. Despite this, we do not detect robust evidence for publication bias in the papers. Moreover, we show that the broad evidence does not confirm the popular decoupling hypothesis.
  • Caballero, Julián; Fernández, Andrés (2017)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 31/2017
    We document a considerable increase in foreign financing by the corporate sector in emerging economies (EMEs) since the early 2000s, mainly in the form of bond issuance, and claim that it has opened up an important channel by which external financial factors can drive economic activity in these economies. Such claim is substantiated by a strong negative relationship between economic activity and an external financial indicator that we construct for several EMEs using micro-level data on spreads of bonds issued by EMEs’ corporations in foreign capital markets. Three salient features characterize such a negative relationship. First, the financial indicator has considerable predictive power on future economic activity in these economies, even after controlling for other potential drivers of economic activity such as movements in sovereign risk and global financial risk, among others. Second, on average, an identified adverse shock to the financial indicator generates a large and protracted fall of real output growth in these economies, and between 11 to 20 percent of its forecast error variance is associated to this shock. Lastly, fluctuations in this indicator also respond strongly to shocks in global financial risk emanating from world capital markets, thereby implying that changes of our indicator also serve as a powerful propagating mechanism to changes in global investors’ appetite for risk.
  • Ambrocio, Gene; Hasan, Iftekhar (2021)
    Journal of International Economics November
    Do stronger political ties with a global superpower improve sovereign borrowing conditions? We use data on voting at the United Nations General Assembly along with foreign aid flows to construct an index of political ties and find evidence that suggests stronger political ties with the US is associated with both better sovereign credit ratings and lower yields on sovereign bonds especially among lower income countries. We use official heads-of-state visits to the White House and coalition forces troop contributions as additional measures of the strength of political ties to further reinforce our findings.
  • Francis, Bill; Hasan, Iftekhar; Liu, LiuLing; Wang, Haizhi (Elsevier, 2019)
    Journal of Banking and Finance January ; 2019
    We empirically investigate whether taking senior bank loans would enhance market discipline and control risk-taking among borrowing banks. Controlling for endogeneity concern arising from borrowing bank self-select into taking senior bank debt, we document that both the spreads and covenants in loan contracts are sensitive to bank risk variables. Our analysis also reveals that borrowing banks reduce their risk exposure after their first issuance of senior bank debt. We also find that lending banks significantly increase their collaboration with borrowing banks and increase their presence in the home markets of borrowing banks.
  • Pestova, Anna; Mamonov, Mikhail (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019
    We employ a Bayesian VAR model to estimate the economic effects on the Russian economy from Western financial sanctions imposed in 2014. Sanctions caused a decrease in the amount of out-standing Russian corporate external debt, but it occurred during an episode of falling oil prices. We disentangle the effects of sanctions and oil prices by computing out-of-sample projections of key Russian macroeconomic variables conditioned solely on the oil price drop and on both the oil price drop and external debt deleveraging. Declining oil prices alone do not explain the depth of economic crisis in Russia, but we get rather accurate conditional forecasts when the actual path of external debt deleveraging is added. We treat the difference between these two projections as the effect of sanctions against Russia. The effect is modest, yet significant, for most of the variables discussed. While our estimate of the impact of sanctions on GDP growth has large uncertainty, over two-thirds of the density lies in the negative area.
  • Hasan, Iftekhar; Kim, Suk-Joong; Wu, Eliza (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2014
    We investigate the effects of credit ratings-contingent financial regulation on foreign bank lending behavior. We examine the sensitivity of international bank flows to debtor countries’ sovereign credit rating changes before and after the implementation of the Basel 2 risk-based capital regulatory rules. We study the quarterly bilateral flows from G-10 creditor banking systems to 77 recipient countries over the period Q4:1999 to Q2:2013. We find direct evidence that sovereign credit re-ratings that lead to changes in risk-weights for capital adequacy requirements have become more significant since the implementation of Basel 2 rules for assessing banks’ credit risk under the standardized approach. This evidence is consistent with global banks acting via their international lending decisions to minimize required capital charges associated with the use of ratings-contingent regulation. We find evidence that banking regulation induced foreign lending has also heightened the perceived sovereign risk levels of recipient countries, especially those with investment grade status. Keywords: cross-border banking, sovereign credit ratings, Basel 2, rating-contingent financial regulation
  • Hasan, Iftekhar; Hassan, Gazi; Kim, Suk-Joong; Wu, Eliza (2021)
    International Review of Financial Analysis
    We investigate whether ratings-based capital regulation has affected the finance-growth nexus via a foreign credit channel. Using quarterly data on short to medium term real GDP growth and cross-border bank lending flows from G-10 countries to 67 recipient countries, we find that since the implementation of Basel 2 capital rules, risk weight reductions mapped to sovereign credit rating upgrades have stimulated short-term economic growth in investment grade recipients but hampered growth in non-investment grade recipients. The impact of these rating upgrades is strongest in the first year and then reverses from the third year and onwards. On the other hand, there is a consistent and lasting negative impact of risk weight increases due to rating downgrades across all recipient countries. The adverse effects of ratings-based capital regulation on foreign bank credit supply and economic growth are compounded in countries with more corruption and less competitive banking sectors and are attenuated with greater political stability.
  • Solanko, Laura (2007)
    BOFIT Online 4/2007
    We propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants.Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis happening after one week but in less than a month.We give empirical evidence that the indicator performs well for two important currency crises in Eastern Europe: the crisis in the Czech Republic in 1997 and the Russian crisis in 1998. Keywords: Currency crisis, term structure of interest rates, transition economies. JEL classi.cation: F31, F34, E43.
  • Pancrazi, Roberto; Seoane, Hernán D.; Vukotic, Marija (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2019
    We examine the welfare effects of bailouts in economies exposed to sovereign default risk. When a government of a small open economy requests a bailout from an international financial institution, it receives a non-defaultable loan of size G that comes with imposed debt limits. The government endogenously asks for the bailout during recessions and repays it when the economy recovers. Hence, the bailout acts as an imperfect state contingent asset that makes the economy better off. The bailout duration is endogenous and increases with its size. The bailout size creates non-trivial tradeoffs between receiving a larger amount of relatively cheap resources precisely in times of need on the one hand, and facing longer-lasting financial constraints and accumulated interest payments, on the other hand. We characterize and quantify these tradeoffs and document that welfare gains of bailouts are hump-shaped in the size of bailout loans.