Browsing by Subject "F44"

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  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Trombley, Christopher (2015)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2015
    Within currency unions, the conventional wisdom is that there should be a high degree of macroeconomic synchronicity between the constituent parts of the union. But this conjecture has never been formally tested by comparing sample of monetary unions with a control sample of countries that do not belong to a monetary union. In this paper we take euro area data, US State macro data, Canadian provincial data and Australian state data — namely real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the GDP deflator growth and unemployment rate data — and use techniques relating to recurrence plots to measure the degree of synchronicity in dynamics over time using a dissimilarity measure. The results show that for the most part monetary unions are more synchronous than non-monetary unions, but that this is not always the case and particularly in the case of real GDP growth. Furthermore, Australia is by far the most synchronous monetary union in our sample.
  • Gächter, Simon; Riedl, Alesandra; Ritzberger-Grünwald, Doris (2013)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2013
    We analyze business cycle convergence in the EU by focusing on the decoupling vs. convergence hypothesis for central, eastern and south eastern Europe (CESEE). In a nutshell, we find that business cycles in CESEE have decoupled considerably from the euro area (EA) during the financial crisis in terms of both cyclical dispersion (i.e. the deviation of output gaps) and cyclical correlation. The results are mainly driven by smaller countries, which can be explained by the fact that small economies seem to have larger cyclical swings as they are more dependent on external demand, which causes a decoupling in terms of higher output gap deviations from the EA cycle in times of economic crises. At the same time, this does not necessarily affect business cycle synchronization as measured by cyclical correlations, where the strength of the linear relationship of two cycles is measured. However, despite the recent declines in the co-movement, we generally observe high correlation levels of CESEE countries with the EA after their EU accession in 2004. Finally, we find a significant decoupling of trend growth rates between EA and CESEE until the onset of the financial crises. Since the beginning of the crisis, trend growth rates have declined both in CESEE and the EA with the trend growth differential decreasing significantly from about three to below two percentage points in 2011. JEL classification: E32, E52, F15, F33, F44; Keywords: Business cycles, EMU, CESEE, optimum currency areas
  • Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2015
    Published in Pacific Economic Review, 23, 3, 2018, 385-410
    We summarize previous research on China’s business cycle correlation with other countries with the help of meta-analysis techniques. We survey 71 related papers along with all the characteristics of the estimations as well as those of the authors. We confirm that especially Pacific Rim countries have relatively high business cycle correlation with China. However, it appears that many characteristics of the studies and authors do influence the reported degree of business cycle synchronization. For instance, Chinese-language papers report higher correlation coefficients. Despite of this, we do not detect a robust publication bias in the papers.
  • Korhonen, Tapio (2016)
    Suomen Pankki. Yleistajuiset selvitykset. A 117
    Rahoitusmarkkinoilla on kaksi perinteistä ydintehtävää: luoda rahaa ja välittää rahoitusta rahoitusylijäämäisiltä sektoreilta rahoitusalijäämäisille sektoreille. Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kolmanneksi perustehtäväksi on viime vuosikymmeninä kehittynyt laaja toiminta jälki- ja johdannaismarkkinoilla. Tässä katsauksessa esitellään käytännönläheisesti näiden rahoitus- ja valuuttamarkkinoiden perustoimintojen luonnetta ja toimintojen liittymistä toisiinsa. Lähtökohta on kokonaistaloudellinen. Koko kansantalous toimii tiukempien rajoitteiden alaisena kuin sen yksittäiset talousyksiköt. Aluksi käsitellään rahan luomista ja ominaisuuksia sekä valuuttamarkkinoiden toimintaa. Mahdollisuus luoda rahaa tuo mukanaan inflaatioon ja rahapolitiikkaan liittyvät kysymykset. Rahapolitiikan tarkastelu painottuu politiikan käytännön toteutukseen.Samalla esitetään rahamarkkinoiden vakauteen, sääntelyyn ja säännöstelyyn liittyviä näkökohtia. Euroalueen rahapolitiikkaan ja vakauteen sisältyy runsaasti omia, osin vaikeitakin erityistekijöitä. Katsauksen jälkiosassa käydään läpi rahoituksen välitystä kansantaloudessa eli eri sektoreiden rahoitusta, kansantalouden rahoitustasapainoa sekä rahoitus- ja arvopaperimarkkinoiden tehokkuutta, vakautta, informaatiota ym. koskevia kysymyksiä. Analysoitavana on myös keskeisiä maksutaseen ja kansainvälisten rahoitusmarkkinoiden tasapaino-ongelmia. Viimeisessä luvussa paneudutaan eläkkeiden rahastoinnin osin varsin hämmentävään ongelmaan koko kansantalouden tasolla. Tarkastelun kohteena on ennen kaikkea kansantalouden rahoituksen melko pysyviä perusilmiöitä. Kuvauksen yhteydessä esitellään kuitenkin esimerkinomaisesti myös jonkin verran markkinakehitystä viime vuosilta ja vuosikymmeniltä Suomesta, euroalueelta ja maailmantaloudesta. Varsinainen historiakatsaus tämä teos ei kuitenkaan ole. Suuri osa tekstistä pohjautuu kirjoittajan Suomen Pankissa eri aikoina eri tarkoituksia varten laatimiin muistioihin.
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Hughes Hallett, Andrew (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2019
    Understanding the relationship between national income GDP components is an essential part of macroeconomics. This study investigates quarterly real GDP component data for the U.S. and the U.K. and applies continuous wavelet analysis on cross comparisons of the data, from both within and between the two datasets. The results show that the cyclical interactions between consumption and investment are the most complex and most substantial at several different frequencies. The relationship of exports with other macroeconomic variables has also developed over time, likely due to the evolution of an international business cycle.
  • Feldkircher, Martin; Korhonen, Iikka (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2012
    Published in Pacific Economic Review, 19: 1 (2014), pp. 61–89 as The rise of China and its implications for the global economy: Evidence from a global vector autoregressive model
    This paper studies empirically the role of China in the world economy. We examine both the way the Chinese economy reacts to selected exogenous macroeconomic shocks and the repercussions for the world economy of a shock emanating from China. With regard to the latter, we focus on the responses of emerging markets, in particular those in Europe. Based on a global VAR (GVAR) model and a new data set that excels in country coverage and covers the most recent time period including the global financial crisis, our results are threefold: First, we show that a +1% shock to Chinese output translates to a permanent increase of 1.2% in Chinese real GDP and a 0.1% to 0.5% rise in output for most large economies. The countries of Central Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) also experience an output rise of 0.2%, while countries in South-Eastern Europe see a permanent 0.1% reduction in output. Secondly, to benchmark the shock to Chinese output, we examine the response to a +1% shock to US GDP. The results show that the US economy remains dominant in the world economy despite the rapid rise of China in recent years. In this vein, output rises in advanced economies by 1% to 1.4% and in the CIS and CEE regions by 1.5% and 0.7% respectively. By contrast China seems to be little affected by the US shock. Finally, we examine the effect of a +50% hike in oil prices on China and emerging economies. As one of the largest oil exporters, Russia's real output increases by about 6%. In contrast, the surge in oil prices puts a drag on Chinese output, amounting to 4.5% in the long-run. JEL Classification: C32, F44, E32, O54 Keywords: China, macroeconomic shocks, foreign shock, GVAR, great recession