Browsing by Author "Funke, Michael"

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  • Funke, Michael; Paetz, Michael (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2012
    In the wake of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, the macroeconomic discussion has returned to the topic of proactive macroprudential policies. One proactive approach, the use of loan-to-value (LTV) policies to curb booming property markets, has long been used by Hong Kong's monetary authorities to actively manage and mitigate the potential fallout from housing price bubbles. Here, we analyse the merits of this countercyclical macroprudential policy in a New Keynesian DSGE model. We conclude that nonlinear LTV policy rules implemented in reaction to episodes of high property price inflation can limit transmission of housing price cycle effects to the real economy. Keywords: Macroprudential policy, DSGE model, loan-to-value ratio, Hong Kong. JEL classification: C63, E21, E32, E69, F41.
  • Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael; Glanemann, Nicole (2009)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2009
    Hong Kong's currency is pegged to the US dollar in a currency board arrangement. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities revamped the one-sided currency board mechanism into a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. This paper reviews the characteristics of the new currency board arrangement and embeds a theoretical soft edge target zone model typifying many intermediate regimes, to explain the notable achievement of speculative peace and credibility since May 2005. JEL-Classification: C61, E42, F31, F32 Keywords: currency board arrangement, target zone model, credibility, Hong Kong
  • Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael (2008)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 29/2008
    Published in China Economic Review 20 (3), 2009, pp. 558-572
    In January 2008, China adopted a new labour contract law. This new law represents the most significant reform to the legislation on employment relations in mainland China in more than a decade. The paper provides a theoretical framework on the inter-linkages between labour market regulation, option value and the choice and timing of employment. All in all, the paper demonstrates that the Labour Contract Law in its own right will have only small impacts upon employment in the fast-growing Chinese economy. Rather, induced increasing unit labour costs represent the real issue and may reduce employment. JEL-Classification: C61, D81, D92, J23 Keywords: China, labour contract law, real options, employment
  • Funke, Michael (2001)
    BOFIT Online 15/2001
    This paper discusses the impact of Estonia's 2000 income tax law using Tobin's q theory of investment.The results indicate a net increase in the capital stock of 6.1 % over the long run.
  • Funke, Michael; Yu, Hao (2009)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2009
    In this paper we analyse the impact of R&D on total factor productivity across Chinese provinces. We introduce innovations explicitly into a production function and evaluate their contribution to economic growth in 1993 - 2006. The empirical results highlight the importance and the interaction between local and external research. The evidence indicates that growth in China is not explained simply by factor input accumulation. Keywords: China, R&D, R&D Spillovers, patents, regional economic growth, semiparametric estimators JEL-Classification: C14, O47, R11, R12
  • Curran, Declan; Funke, Michael; Wang, Jue (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2007
    This paper considers the persistent differences in economic performance across Chinese regions. We introduce a new county- and city-level dataset that spans all of mainland China and provides a detailed view of Chinese regional growth over the period 1997-2005. Non-parametric kernel density estimation is employed to establish the cross-sectional GDP per capita distribution, and the distributional dynamics are investigated using the probability matrix technique and associated stochastic kernel estimator. A set of explanatory variables is then introduced, and several regressions are run to test for conditional ß- convergence and to pinpoint influential factors for economic growth across counties and cities. Keywords: Regional Economic Growth, China JEL-Classification: O11, R11
  • Funke, Michael; Ruhwedel, Ralf (2003)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2003
    Published in Economics of Transition vol 13, no 1 (2005), pp. 25-50
    Utilising panel data for 14 East European transition economies, we find support for the hypothesis that a greater degree of export variety relative to the U.S. helps to explain relative per capita GDP levels.The empirical work relies upon some direct measures of product variety calculated from 5-digit OECD trade data.Although the issue is far from settled, the emerging view is that the index of relative export variety across countries correlates significantly with relative per capita income levels. Keywords: Product Variety, Transition Economies, Eastern Europe, Economic Growth, Panel Data JEL classification: C33, F43, O31, O33, O52.
  • Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael; Tao, Kunyu (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2015
    This paper analyses the financial distortions – growth nexus in China using a tractable general equilibrium modelling approach in which heterogeneous private and state-owned firms interact. The focal points of the model are financial frictions and reallocations of factors of production across firms. The calibrated version of the model elicits the important message that the adoption of a comprehensive financial market reform package abolishing financial distortions will lead to substantial output gains. Thus, structural policies leading to more efficient allocation of factors of production will remain a key policy challenge in China in the years to come. Publication keywords: financial distortions, financial liberalisation, general equilibrium model, China
  • Funke, Michael; Paetz, Michael (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 30/2012
    This paper evaluates various financial system reform initiatives and proposals in China in a DSGE modelling setting. The key reform steps analysed include phasing out benchmark interest rates, deepening the direct finance market, reducing government's quantity-based intervention on financial institutions. Our counterfactual model simulation results suggest that the reforms will be beneficial only, if Chinese monetary policy continues to rely on quantity-based interventions on financial institutions or tightens the interest rate rule. Keywords: DSGE model, financial sector reform, monetary policy, China. JEL classification: E42, E52, E58.
  • Funke, Michael (2005)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2005
    Published in Pacific Economic Review (2006), Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 413-430
    The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) posits the dynamics of inflation as forward looking and related to marginal costs.In this paper we examine the empirical relevance of the NKPC for mainland China.The empirical results indicate that an augmented (hybrid) NKPC gives results that are consistent with the data generating process.It is in this respect that the NKPC provides useful insights into the nature of inflation dynamics in mainland China as well as useful insights for the conduct of monetary policy. Keywords: China, inflation, New Keynesian Phillips curve JEL-Classification: C22, E31
  • Funke, Michael; Rahn, Jörg (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2004
    Published in World Economy vol. 28, no 4 (2005), pp. 465-489
    Given that the value of China s currency has been hot topic recently, this paper explores the equilibrium levels of China s real and nominal exchange rates.Employing a Johansen cointegration framework, we focus on the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER) models.Our results suggest that, while the renminbi is somewhat undervalued against the dollar, the misalignment is not nearly as exaggerated as many popular claims. JEL Classifications: F31, F32, F41, C32 Keywords: Renminbi, Yuan, China, Exchange Rate, Equilibrium Exchange Rate
  • Funke, Michael; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Tsang, Andrew (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2017
    Published in Regional Science and Urban Economics, Volume 78, September 2019, 103464
    The recent increase in China’s house prices at the national level masks tremendous variation at the city level – a feature largely overlooked in the macroprudential literature. This paper considers the evolving heterogeneity in China’s house price dynamics across 70 cities and assess the main deter-minants. We gauge the heterogeneity of house price dynamics using a novel regime-switching modelling approach to estimate the time-varying patterns of China’s city-level housing price synchronization. After sorting city-level housing prices into four clusters sharing similar cyclical features, we see that each group shows increasing synchronization in the years leading up to 2015, and a decoupling pattern thereafter. We document high synchronization within each of the clusters of cities, but low synchronization among them. The empirical evidence suggests that differentials in the growth of households, income, investment and even differences in air quality explain housing price synchronization among cities.
  • Chen, Qianying; Funke, Michael; Paetz, Michael (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2012
    Monetary policy in mainland China differs from conventional central banking in several respects. The central bank regulates retail lending and deposit rates, influences the credit supply via window guidance, and, in recent years has even used the required reserve ratio as a tool for fine-tuning monetary policy. This paper develops a New Keynesian DSGE model to captures China s unconventional monetary policy toolkit. We find that credit quotas are important as the interest-rate corridor distorts the efficient reactions of the economy. Moreover, for China s central bankers the choice of a particular monetary policy tool or a the appropriate combination of instruments depends on the source of the shock.
  • Funke, Michael; Li, Xiang; Tsang, Andrew (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2019
    This paper studies monetary policy transmission in China’s peer-to-peer lending market. Using spectral measures of causality, we explore the impacts of Chinese monetary policy shocks on China’s P2P market interest rates and lending amounts. The estimation results indicate significant spectral Granger causality from monetary policy surprises to P2P lending rates for borrowers, but not the reverse. Unlike the lending channel for traditional banks, monetary policy shocks do not Granger-cause the credit amount in the P2P lending market.
  • Funke, Michael; Mihaylovski, Petar; Zhu, Haibin (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2015
    The paper sheds light on the interplay between monetary policy, the commercial banking sector and the shadow banking sector in mainland China by means of a nonlinear stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with occasionally binding constraints. In particular, we analyze the impacts of interest rate liberalization on monetary policy transmission as well as the dynamics of the parallel shadow banking sector. Comparison of various interest rate liberalization scenarios reveals that monetary policy results in increased feed-through to the lending and investment under complete liberalization. Furthermore, tighter regulation of interest rates in the commercial banking sector in China leads to an increase in loans provided by the shadow banking sector.
  • Funke, Michael; Tsang, Andrew; Zhu, Linxu (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2018
    This paper investigates the implementation of regionally differentiated macro-prudential policies in China. To assess the relative intensity of the city-level macro-prudential policies over time, we construct a time-varying city-level macro-prudential policy intensity indicator for 70 Chinese cities from 2010-2017. The empirical evidence shows China’s macro-prudential toolbox has gradually evolved toward city-level policies tailored to granular local conditions to mitigate risks.
  • Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael; Glanemann, Nicole (2010)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2010
    Published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2013; 17(4): 373-393
    This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. Keywords: Currency Board Arrangement, Target Zone Model, Hong Kong JEL-Classification: C61, E42, F31, F32
  • Chen, Xi; Funke, Michael (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 27/2012
    Published in The National Institute Economic Review, February 2013, 223 (1), pp. 39-48
    The recent increase in Chinese house prices has led to concerns that China is vulnerable to asset price shocks. In this paper, we apply recently developed recursive unit root tests to spot the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in Chinese house price cycles. Overall, we find that except for 2009-2010 actual house prices are not significantly disconnected from fundamentals. Thus, the evidence for speculative house price bubbles in China is in general weak. Keywords: house prices, China, speculative bubbles, recursive unit root tests JEL-Classification: C15, G01, G12, R31
  • Funke, Michael; Paetz, Michael; Pytlarczyk, Ernest (2009)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2009
    Published in Economic Modelling, Vol 28, No 1-2 (2011), pp. 316-334.
    This paper develops and estimates an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Hong Kong economy. The model features short-run price rigidities generated by monopolistic competition and staggered reoptimisation. The model is enhanced with wealth effects due to stock price dynamics, which we believe to be important. For this reason we adopt a perpetual youth approach. Model parameters and unobserved components are estimated with a Bayesian maximum likelihood procedure, conditional on prior information concerning the values of parameters.
  • Curran, Declan; Funke, Michael (2006)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006
    We present a new composite leading indicator of economic activity in mainland China, estimated using a dynamic factor model.Our leading indicator is constructed from three series: exports, a real estate climate index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index.These series are found to share a common, unobservable element from which our indicator can be identified.This indicator is then incorporated into out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts of Chinese GDP growth.Recursive out-of-sample accuracy tests indicate that the smallscale factor model approach leads to a successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting Chinese business conditions. Keywords: Forecasting, China, Leading Indicator, Factor Model, Growth Cycles JEL-Classification: C32, C52, E32, E37