Browsing by Subject "GDP growth"

Sort by: Order: Results:

Now showing items 1-3 of 3
  • Barker, Jamie; Herrala, Risto (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2021
    Since embarking on economic reform in 1991, India has experienced three decades of rapid economic development. Recently, however, there has been significant uncertainty about the growth outlook of the Indian economy in the mid-term perspective. In this paper we use standard regression techniques to project the path of the Indian economy over the next 4 years. The analysis, which abstracts from the pandemic period, mainly serves as support to forecasting the global economy. After the pandemic, GDP growth is projected to rebound this year and then slide to-wards 6 ‒ 7% in the medium term. The analysis broadly agrees with the recent projections of India’s mid-term growth rate by other institutions.
  • Mikosch, Heiner; Solanko, Laura (2019)
    Russian Journal of Money and Finance 1
    This paper presents a pseudo real‐time out‐of‐sample forecast exercise for short‐term forecasting and nowcasting quarterly Russian GDP growth with mixed‐frequency data. We employ a large set of indicators and study their predictive power for different subperiods within the forecast evaluation period 2008–2016. Four indicators consistently figure in the list of top-performing indicators: the Rosstat key sector economic output index, the OECD composite leading indicator for Russia, household banking deposits, and money supply M2. Aside from these indicators, the top indicators in the 2008–2011 evaluation period are traditional real‐sector variables, while those in the 2012–2016 evaluation period largely comprise monetary, banking sector and financial market variables. We also compare the forecast accuracy of three different mixed‐frequency forecasting model classes (bridge equations, MIDAS models, and U-MIDAS models). Differences between the performance of model classes are generally small, but for the 2008–2011 period MIDAS models and U-MIDAS models outperform bridge equation models.
  • Mikosch, Heiner; Solanko, Laura (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2017
    Published in Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Volume 78, Number 1, March 2019
    GDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help resolve these issues, we examine a range of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP growth in a major emerging economy, Russia. Numerous useful indicators are identified and forecast pooling of three model classes (bridge models, MIDAS models and unrestricted mixed-frequency models) are shown to outperform simple benchmark models. We further separately examine forecast accuracy of each of the three model classes. Our results show that differences in performance of model classes are generally small, but for the period covering the Great Recession unrestricted mixed-frequency models and MIDAS models clearly outperform bridge models. Notably, the sets of top-performing indicators differ for our two subsample observation periods (2008Q1–2011Q4 and 2012Q1–2016Q4). The best indicators in the first period are traditional real-sector variables, while those in the second period consist largely of monetary, banking sector and financial market variables. This finding supports the notion that highly volatile periods of recession and subsequent recovery are driven by forces other than those that prevail in more normal times. The results further suggest that the driving forces of the Russian economy have changed since the global financial crisis.