Browsing by Subject "Indian economy"

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  • Barker, Jamie; Herrala, Risto (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2021
    Since embarking on economic reform in 1991, India has experienced three decades of rapid economic development. Recently, however, there has been significant uncertainty about the growth outlook of the Indian economy in the mid-term perspective. In this paper we use standard regression techniques to project the path of the Indian economy over the next 4 years. The analysis, which abstracts from the pandemic period, mainly serves as support to forecasting the global economy. After the pandemic, GDP growth is projected to rebound this year and then slide to-wards 6 ‒ 7% in the medium term. The analysis broadly agrees with the recent projections of India’s mid-term growth rate by other institutions.
  • Herrala, Risto (2019)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    India’s on a roll. Agreed, there are the usual complaints from its detractors about rampant corruption, slow progress in structural reforms, red tape and a lack of fiscal discipline, but it’s hard to argue with India’s macroeconomic performance – a booming economy with modest inflation. More importantly, India’s recipe for growth delivers strong performance year in and year out. GDP growth has averaged over 7% per annum over the past two decades, translating into almost six percent more income for its young, expanding population every year.
  • Herrala, Risto (2022)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    Based on the first advance estimates for the fiscal year 2021–22, economic activity in India has returned to pre-pandemic levels. Like many other countries, the Asian economic giant has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. The first wave of the virus in early 2020 was accompanied by a tight lockdown, during which economic activity contracted sharply by about a quarter. With growing levels of immunity and greater experience about how to live with the virus, the subsequent viral flares have been much less dramatic from a macroeconomic perspective. Based on the IHS Markit PMI Index, February is set to be India’s seventh consecutive month of solid economic growth (Chart 1). The positive developments have given rise to optimism that the pandemic’s grip on the Indian economy is finally waning.