Browsing by Subject "Intia"

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  • Saarenheimo, Tuomas (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2005
    The median age of the global population is presently increasing by nearly three months every year.Over the next couple of decades, almost every country in the world is set to experience an unprecedented increase in the share of elderly population.This development has the potential to fundamentally affect the functioning of economic and financial systems globally.This study concentrates on the effects of ageing on the evolution of global interest rates and financial flows.The study uses a 73-cohort general equilibrium overlapping generations model of five major economic areas (USA, EU-15, Japan, China, and India).Utilising actual population data and UN population projections, the model yields predictions for major economic and financial variables up to 2050.The model predicts a decline in global equilibrium real interest rates over the next two decades, but the size of the decline depends crucially on the future evolution of public pension benefits.If the present generosity of pension systems is maintained - leading to a steep increase in the cost of the pension systems - the maximum decline of interest rates is projected to be about 70 basis points from present levels.If pension benefits are reduced to offset the increasing cost pressures, the decline in global equilibrium interest rates can be much larger, while increases in the retirement age work in the opposite direction.The results do not anticipate a 'financial market meltdown' - a collapse in asset prices associated with the retirement of the baby-boomers - predicted by some.On the contrary, bond prices should fare fairly well over the next three decades.The main reason for this is that increasing life expectancy at retirement creates a need for higher retirement saving - in the future, people will want to retire wealthier than they do today.This trend more than offsets the negative effect of the retirement of baby-boomers on asset demand.Key words: Ageing, real interest rates, financial flows, public pension systems JEL classification numbers: J11, E44
  • Barker, Jamie; Herrala, Risto (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2021
    Since embarking on economic reform in 1991, India has experienced three decades of rapid economic development. Recently, however, there has been significant uncertainty about the growth outlook of the Indian economy in the mid-term perspective. In this paper we use standard regression techniques to project the path of the Indian economy over the next 4 years. The analysis, which abstracts from the pandemic period, mainly serves as support to forecasting the global economy. After the pandemic, GDP growth is projected to rebound this year and then slide to-wards 6 ‒ 7% in the medium term. The analysis broadly agrees with the recent projections of India’s mid-term growth rate by other institutions.
  • Cheung, Yin-Wong; Fujii, Eiji (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2011
    Published in International Journal of Finance and Economics, Volume 19, Issue 2, March 2014, Pages 91-121.
    We study the differences in currency misalignment estimates obtained from alternative datasets derived from two International Comparison Program (ICP) surveys. A decomposition exercise reveals that the year 2005 misalignment estimates are substantially affected by the ICP price revision. Further, we find that differences in misalignment estimates are systematically affected by a country s participation status in the ICP survey and its data quality a finding that casts doubt on the economic and policy relevance of these misalignment estimates. The patterns of changes in estimated degrees of misalignment across individual countries, as exemplified by the BRIC economies, are highly variable.
  • Mehrotra, Aaron (2010)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Expert view 2/2010
  • Ghani, Ejaz; Goswami, Arti Grover; Kerr, William (2017)
    World Bank Economic Review Supplement 1, March
    We investigate the impact of the Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) highway project on the spatial organization and efficiency of manufacturing activity. The GQ project upgraded the quality and width of 3,633 miles of roads in India. We use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy to compare non-nodal districts based upon their distance from the highway system. For the organized portion of the manufacturing sector, we find that GQ led to improvements in both urban and rural areas of nonnodal districts located 0–10 km from GQ. These higher entry rates and increases in plant productivity are not present in districts 10–50 km away. The entry effects are stronger in rural areas of districts, but the differences between urban and rural areas are modest relative to the overall effect. For the unorganized sector, we do not find material effects from the GQ upgrades in either setting. These findings suggest that in the time frames that we can consider—the first five to seven years during and after upgrades—the economic effects of major highway projects contribute modestly to the migration of the organized sector out of Indian cities but are unrelated to the increased urbanization of the unorganized sector.
  • Cheung, Yin-Wong; Sengupta, Rajeswari (2013)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2013
    Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 39, December 2013, Pages 231-245.
    We explore the real effective exchange rate (REER) effects on the share of exports of Indian non-financial sector firms for the period 2000 to 2010. Our empirical analysis reveals that, on average, there has been a strong and significant negative impact from currency appreciation and currency volatility on market shares of India's exporting firms. Labor costs are found to amplify the exchange- rate effects on trade. Further, there is evidence that the Indian firms considered here respond asymmetrically to exchange rates. A REER change effect, for example, is more likely to arise from a negative appreciation effect than a depreciation effect. Indian firms with smaller export shares tend to respond more strongly to both REER change and volatility than those with larger export shares. Services exporters are impacted more strongly by exchange rate fluctuations than firms exporting goods. The findings on asymmetric responses, in particular, have important policy implications. JEL classifications: F1, F4 Keywords: exchange rate fluctuations, firm-level export shares, asymmetric effects, services exports
  • Herrala, Risto (2020)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    COVID-19 spreads in India. Economy activity declines sharply. Fiscal policy under considerable strain. Monetary policy in crisis mode. RBI works to support the banking sector.
  • Herrala, Risto (2019)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    India’s on a roll. Agreed, there are the usual complaints from its detractors about rampant corruption, slow progress in structural reforms, red tape and a lack of fiscal discipline, but it’s hard to argue with India’s macroeconomic performance – a booming economy with modest inflation. More importantly, India’s recipe for growth delivers strong performance year in and year out. GDP growth has averaged over 7% per annum over the past two decades, translating into almost six percent more income for its young, expanding population every year.
  • Bank of Finland (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2016
    Global economic growth has been resting on the performance of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), but now these countries are facing headwinds. China's economic growth is slowing down, Brazil's and Russia's economies are contracting, and growth in South Africa is sluggish. Within this group, India's economy of 1.3 billion people stands out to its advantage. India's economic growth is strengthening and, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stood at 7.3% in 2015. IMF projects India’s growth rate to accelerate further and to reach levels close to 8% by the end of the decade, which underpins India's position as the world's fastest-growing large economy.
  • Mehrotra, Aaron (2006)
    BOFIT Online 2006/3
    We provide a brief overview of recent developments in the Indian macroeconomy, including aspects of the real economy, price developments, and monetary and fiscal policies.The picture that emerges is one of a rapidly growing economy, supported by strong domestic demand and credit flows.The economic boom has dragged the current account into deficit, while output growth has broadened to encompass the industrial sector.Fiscal deficit ratios have recently declined due to a rapid increase in the level of GDP, but public sector imbalances remain high, constraining necessary investments in health, education, physical infrastructure and overall poverty reduction. Keywords: India, economic growth, monetary policy, fiscal policy
  • Fung, K. C.; Hwang, Hsiang-Chih; Ng, Francis; Seade, Jesús (2013)
    BOFIT Online 1/2013
    Abstract 3 1 Introduction 4 2 Chinese trade in parts and components 5 3 Indian and South Asian trade in parts and components 7 4 Conclusion 9 Reference 10
  • Suomen Pankki (2016)
    Euro & talous 1/2016
    Maailmantalouden kasvua kannatelleet BRICS-maat (Brasilia, Venäjä, Intia, Kiina ja Etelä-Afrikka) ovat vastatuulessa. Kiinassa kasvu hidastuu, Brasiliassa ja Venäjällä talous supistuu ja Etelä-Afrikan talouskehitys on vaimeaa. Tässä joukossa 1,3 miljardin asukkaan Intia erottuu edukseen. Intian talouden kasvuvauhti on voimistumassa ja oli Kansainvälisen valuuttarahaston (IMF) ennusteen mukaan 7,3 % vuonna 2015. IMF ennustaa Intian kasvun kiihtyvän vuosikymmenen loppuun mennessä lähelle 8:aa prosenttia, mikä vahvistaa maan asemaa maailman nopeimmin kasvavana suurena taloutena.
  • Rautava, Jouko (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 2/2018
    Intian talous on tällä vuosikymmenellä kasvanut keskimäärin 7 % vuodessa. Nopean kasvun taustalla on erittäin alhainen tulotaso, kaupungistumisen tuoma tuottavuuden kasvu sekä joidenkin talouden sektoreiden liberalisointi. Maan kehitystarpeet ovat kuitenkin valtavat, eivätkä vallalla olleet sisäänpäin kääntynyt talousstrategia ja äärimmäisen varovainen uudistuspolitiikka ole kyenneet vastaamaan näihin ongelmiin. Investointiasteen lasku on merkki uudistusten tarpeesta. Vuonna 2017 toteutettu verouudistus (GST) on keskeinen uudistus maan sisäisten markkinoiden integroimiseksi, mutta Intialta on lupa odottaa paljon enemmän, vaikkei sen reformihistoria lupaakaan liikoja. Intian kehityksen vertaaminen Kiinan nousuun maailmantaloudessa on ennenaikaista.
  • Rautava, Jouko (2005)
    BOFIT Online 2005/2
    India has frequently been referred to as the country with the largest economic growth potential in the world after China.Many commentators seem to think its role in the world economy is already comparable to that of China.However, a closer look at merchandise trade, market share developments, and foreign investment figures reveals that India is still far behind China as far as international influence is concerned.An interesting exception is services trade, where India already plays an important global role due to recent fast growth of offshore outsourcing.Despite of the vitality of this sector, its weight in the Indian as well as in the global economy is relatively small.In general, India's economy and economic policy are still relatively inward looking and it seems unlikely that India will become a major driver of the world economy in the current decade.However, depending on India's economic policy and reforms, the situation in the next decade may already be quite different. Key words: India, China, economic growth, economic policy, foreign trade
  • Benkovskis, Konstantins; Wörz, Julia (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2012
    Published in Empirical Economics, Volume 51, Issue 2, Sept. 2016, pp 707–735
    This analysis of global competitiveness of emerging market economies accounts for non-price aspects of competitiveness. Building on the methodology pioneered by Feenstra (1994) and Broda and Weinstein (2006), we construct an export price index that adjusts for changes in the set of competitors (variety) and changes in non-price factors (quality in a broad sense) for nine emerging economies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey). The highly disaggregated dataset covers the period 1999?2010 and is based on the standardized 6-digit Harmonized System (HS). Unlike studies that use a CPI-based real effective exchange rate, our method highlights notable differences in non-price competitiveness across markets. China shows a huge gain in international competitiveness due to non-price factors, suggesting that China critics may be overstressing the role of renminbi undervaluation in explaining China's competitive position. Oil exports account for strong improvement in Russia's non-price competitiveness, as well as the modest losses of competitiveness for Argentina and Indonesia. Brazil, Chile, India and Turkey show discernible improvements in their competitive position when accounting for non-price factors. Mexico's competitiveness deteriorates regardless of the index chosen. JEL Classification: C43, F12, F14, L15 Keywords: non-price competitiveness, quality, relative export price, emerging countries
  • Mehrotra, Aaron (2013)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2013
    We document recent developments in the use of sterilisation bonds by six central banks in emerging Asia, and discuss the implications for monetary policy and the financial sector. An important development in the sterilisation of foreign exchange interventions in past years has been the frequent use of central banks' own paper. There has been an attempt to lengthen the maturity structure of sterilisation bills, and maturities have risen, especially in 2010-11. The choice of sterilisation instrument is likely to depend partly on their relative costs. In particular, as the yield on central bank securities has fallen relative to the rate of remuneration of required reserves, some central banks in Asia have increasingly used central bank securities for sterilisation. Keywords: sterilisation bond, central bank bonds and bills, foreign exchange reserves, emerging Asia JEL classification: E43, E50, E52, E58
  • Rautava, Jouko (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 5/2020
    Intian suuri, nuori ja kasvava väestö sekä sen raportoima nopea talouskasvu ovat jo pitkään ruokkineet toiveita, että maasta tulisi uusi maailmantalouden veturi. Odotukset näyttävät kuitenkin ylimitoitetuilta suhteessa maan talouden suorituskykyyn ja protektionistisen talouspolitiikan näköalattomuuteen. Muutamaa toimialaa lukuun ottamatta maan rooli maailmankaupassa ja globaaleilla rahoitusmarkkinoilla on vaatimaton, eikä sen rooli näytä edes kasvavan. Vuosikymmenten kehitys on osoittanut, että maan harjoittama protektionistinen ja uudistusvastainen talouspolitiikka on syvässä ristiriidassa sen globaalitalouden roolia koskevien toiveiden ja mainospuheiden kanssa.
  • Euroopan keskuspankki (2015)
    Euroopan keskuspankki. Talouskatsaus 4/2015
    RAHA- JA REAALITALOUDEN KEHITYS Yhteenveto 5 1 Talouskehitys euroalueen ulkopuolella 7 2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys 11 3 Talouskehitys euroalueella 15 4 Hinnat ja kustannukset 21 5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto 24 6 Julkisen talouden kehitys 29 KEHIKOT Kehikko 1. Intian talouden nousu 31 Kehikko 2. Osakehintojen viimeaikainen kehitys euroalueella ja Yhdysvalloissa 34 Kehikko 3. Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 28.1.2015–21.4.2015 39 Kehikko 4. Vaihtotaseen viimeaikainen kehitys niissä euroalueen maissa, joissa oli suuri alijäämä ennen finanssikriisiä 43 Kehikko 5. Valuuttakurssien YKHI-inflaatioon välittymisen seuraaminen 46 Kehikko 6. Euroalueen yritysten muualta kuin pankeista saama rahoitus kriisin aikana 49 Kehikko 7. Euroopan väestön ikääntymiseen liittyvät kustannukset vuoden 2015 ikääntymisraportissa 52 Kehikko 8. Julkisen talouden keskipitkän aikavälin tavoitteen tehokkuus finanssipolitiikan tukena 57 ARTIKKELIT (Saatavissa englanninkielisinä EKP:n verkkopalvelusta The role of the central bank balance sheet in monetary policy IMF surveillance of the euro area and its member countries Forecasting the price of oil TILASTOT T1
  • Herrala, Risto (2020)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    It has been a year since the inflation rate in India exceeded the target range of 2­–6 percent and started to hover between 6–8 percent (Chart 1). The survey evidence signals that households expect inflation to continue well above the target. Concerning? Perhaps. But we should be mindful that a pandemic creates a truly exceptional set of circumstances for monetary policy authorities in every country.