Browsing by Subject "Irlanti"

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  • Taipalus, Katja (2012)
    Suomen Pankki. E 47
    To promote the financial stability, there is a need for an early warning system to signal the formation of asset price misalignments. This research provides two novel methods to accomplish this task. Results in this research shows that the conventional unit root tests in modified forms can be used to construct early warning indicators for bubbles in financial markets. More precisely, the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test is shown to provide a basis for two novel bubble indicators. These new indicators are tested via MC simulations to analyze their ability to signal emerging unit roots in time series and to compare their power with standard stability and unit root tests. Simulation results concerning these two new stability tests are promising: they seem to be more robust and to have more power in the presence of changing persistence than the standard stability and unit root tests. When these new tests are applied to real US stock market data starting from 1871, they are able to signal most of the consensus bubbles, defined as stock market booms for example by the IMF, and they also flash warning signals far ahead of a crash. Also encouraging are the results with these methods in practical applications using equity prices in the UK, Finland and China as the methods seem to be able to signal most of the consensus bubbles from the data. Finally, these early warning indicators are applied to data for several housing markets. In most of the cases the indicators seem to work relatively well, indicating bubbles before the periods which, according to the consensus literature, are seen as periods of sizeable upward or downward movements. The scope of application of these early warning indicators could be wide. They could be used eg to help determine the right timing for the start of a monetary tightening cycle or for an increase in countercyclical capital buffers. Key words: asset prices, financial crises, bubbles, indicator, unit-root JEL classification: C15, G01, G12
  • Alho, Eeva (2011)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 1
    The delay in the complete restructuring of banks continues to undermine financial stability in Europe. Banks that have received state aid in the crisis are required to downsize their balance sheets. In some countries, the entire banking sector needs to be reorganised. Solutions have been slow in coming given all the political restrictions, and banks have been squeezed between public assistance and market pressure.
  • Ross, Märten (2012)
    Suomen Pankki. BoF online 11
    Contents 1 Rationale 3 2 Starting point 4 3 Output 5 4 External and financial balances 8 5 Public finances 11 6 Labor market 14 7 Lessons 16
  • Alho, Eeva (2010)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 3
    The cost of the banking crisis will reach a record high in Ireland. The concentration of lending made the Irish banking system particularly vulnerable, and losses caused by the collapse of the property market are now being removed from banks balance sheets. The state has guaranteed all the deposits to prevent widespread withdrawal of deposits.
  • Alho, Eeva (2010)
    Suomen Pankki. Rahoitusmarkkinaraportti 3
    Pankkikriisin kustannus nousee Irlannissa ennätysmittoihin. Luotonannon keskittyminen teki Irlannin pankkijärjestelmästä erityisen haavoittuvan, ja kiinteistömarkkinoiden romahduksen aiheuttamia tappioita siivotaan nyt pankkien taseista. Valtio on taannut kaikki talletukset estääkseen laajan talletuspaon.
  • Alho, Eeva (2011)
    Suomen Pankki. Rahoitusmarkkinaraportti 1
    Pankkien perinpohjaisen kunnostuksen viivästyminen horjuttaa yhä Euroopan rahoitusvakautta. Kriisissä tukea saaneilta pankeilta edellytetään taseen karsimista. Joissain maissa koko pankkisektori tarvit-see uudelleenjärjestelyä. Ratkaisuja poliit-tisten rajoitteiden kyllästämään prosessiin on löytynyt hitaasti, ja pankit ovat kitku-telleet julkisen tuen ja markkinapaineiden välissä.
  • Alho, Eeva (2010)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 1
    The wealth of many American homeowners has turned negative as the value of property used as collateral for many mortgages has fallen below the loan principal. Pay-option mortgages are popular, and a wave of loan recasts is on the way. Irish and Spanish banks risks in commercial property and construction have intensified since the collapse of property markets, following an overheating of the markets.
  • Alho, Eeva (2010)
    Suomen Pankki. Rahoitusmarkkinaraportti 1
    Monen amerikkalaisen asunnonomistajan varallisuus on painunut negatiiviseksi, kun asuntolainan vakuutena olevan asunnon arvo on laskenut alle lainasumman. Valinnaisen maksun asuntolainat ovat suosittuja, ja näiden lainojen uudelleenneuvotteluaalto lähestyy. Irlannin ja Espanjan pankkien riskit liikekiinteistö- ja rakennussektorilla ovat kärjistyneet kiinteistömarkkinoiden romahdettua ylikuumentumisen jälkeen.