Browsing by Subject "Japani"

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  • Oinonen, Sami (2016)
    Euro & talous 1/2016
    Japanissa on kolmisen vuotta harjoitettu maan pääministerin Aben mukaan nimettyä ja abenomicsina tunnettua talouspolitiikkaa, jonka tarkoituksena on saattaa maa jälleen kestävän talouskasvun tielle elvyttävän raha- ja finanssipolitiikan sekä rakenteellisten uudistusten avulla. Tavoitteisiin ei ole vielä päästy, mutta edistysaskelia on kuitenkin jo otettu. Talouskasvu on toistaiseksi ollut vaisua, mutta deflaatiokehitys on saatu katkaistua ja rakenteellisia uudistuksiakin on viety eteenpäin. Edellytyksiä ohjelman onnistumiselle on yhä.
  • Oinonen, Sami (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2016
    For the past three years or so, Japan has pursued an economic policy named after Prime Minister Abe as abenomics, with the intention of putting the country back on a path of sustainable economic growth via expansionary monetary and fiscal policy and structural reforms. These goals have not yet been achieved, but there has already been some progress. For the time being, economic growth has been sluggish, but the deflationary trend has been halted and structural reforms have moved forward. The preconditions for success of the programme are in place.
  • Saarenheimo, Tuomas (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2005
    The median age of the global population is presently increasing by nearly three months every year.Over the next couple of decades, almost every country in the world is set to experience an unprecedented increase in the share of elderly population.This development has the potential to fundamentally affect the functioning of economic and financial systems globally.This study concentrates on the effects of ageing on the evolution of global interest rates and financial flows.The study uses a 73-cohort general equilibrium overlapping generations model of five major economic areas (USA, EU-15, Japan, China, and India).Utilising actual population data and UN population projections, the model yields predictions for major economic and financial variables up to 2050.The model predicts a decline in global equilibrium real interest rates over the next two decades, but the size of the decline depends crucially on the future evolution of public pension benefits.If the present generosity of pension systems is maintained - leading to a steep increase in the cost of the pension systems - the maximum decline of interest rates is projected to be about 70 basis points from present levels.If pension benefits are reduced to offset the increasing cost pressures, the decline in global equilibrium interest rates can be much larger, while increases in the retirement age work in the opposite direction.The results do not anticipate a 'financial market meltdown' - a collapse in asset prices associated with the retirement of the baby-boomers - predicted by some.On the contrary, bond prices should fare fairly well over the next three decades.The main reason for this is that increasing life expectancy at retirement creates a need for higher retirement saving - in the future, people will want to retire wealthier than they do today.This trend more than offsets the negative effect of the retirement of baby-boomers on asset demand.Key words: Ageing, real interest rates, financial flows, public pension systems JEL classification numbers: J11, E44
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Schildt, Tony (2009)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 33/2009
    Many indicators of business and growth cycles have been constructed by both private and public agencies and are now in use as monitoring devices of economic conditions and for forecasting purposes. As these indicators are largely composite constructs using other economic data, their frequency composition is likely different to that of the variables they are used as indicators for. In this paper we use the Hilbert-Huang transform, which comprises the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and the Hilbert spectrum, in order to analyse the frequency content of comparable OECD confidence indicators and national sentiment indicators for industrial production and consumption. We then compare these with the frequency content of both industrial production and real consumption growth data. The Hilbert-Huang methodology first uses a sifting process (EMD) to identify the embedded frequencies within a time series, and the changing nature of these embedded frequencies (IMFs) can then be analysed by estimating the instantaneous frequency (using the Hilbert spectrum). This methodology has several advantages over conventional spectral analysis: it handles non-stationary and non-linear processes, and it can cope with short data series. The aim of this paper is to decompose both indicator and actual economic variables to evaluate i) whether the number of IMFs are equivalent in both indicators and actual variables and ii) to see which frequencies are accounted for in indicators and which frequencies are not.
  • Pikkarainen, Pentti (2010)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2010
    The paper concentrates on illustrating and assessing central banks liquidity operations during the crisis that started in August 2007. In addition to the ECB, the central banks of Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Canada and the United States are analyzed. During the crisis the liquidity operations of central banks have converged. In many cases, central bank balance sheets have undergone extremely strong growth. The actions by central banks raise a number of questions concerning exit from the measures taken, the impact of the measures, central banks risks and their governance structure
  • Ikonen, Pasi; Oinonen, Sami; Schmöller, Michaela; Vilmi, Lauri (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2020
    Stagnation is a period of slow economic growth often characterised by low interest rates and low inflation. It is most commonly associated with the development of the Japanese economy since the early 1990s. In the euro area, the corona crisis together with an already ageing population, diminished productivity growth, and, in places, high levels of debt even before the onset of the current crisis may weaken the economy's ability to recover. There is a danger of the economy slipping into an equilibrium of low interest rates and low inflation, i.e. a liquidity trap. There is also a risk of inflation expectations declining. The policy response in the euro area to the economic outlook weakened by the corona crisis has been swift and decisive. Well-targeted policy measures can mitigate the risk of the economy following an adverse path.
  • Granlund, Peik (2003)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 5/2003
    This paper evaluates bank exit regimes in selected financial centres using econometric methods.The focus is on bank exit regimes applicable to commercial banks in New York, London, Frankfurt, Helsinki and Tokyo in 1998-2002.Bank exit regimes are studied from the perspective of bank creditors and bank shareholders.In order to apply econometric methods, the exit regimes are indexed and then evaluated by comparing them with market indicators that reflect the interests of bank creditors and shareholders.These market indicators comprise bank refinancing costs and bank growth rates.In other words, two specific questions are addressed: (1) Do differences in bank exit regimes of significance to bank creditors explain differences in bank refinancing costs?(2) Do differences in bank exit regimes significant to bank shareholders explain differences in bank growth?The study shows that in those financial centres where the probability of bailout is higher, refinancing costs for banks are lower.
  • Mehrotra, Aaron (Edita Prima, 2006)
    Suomen Pankki. E 34
    This thesis consists of four essays in empirical macroeconomics. The first three essays examine the conduct of monetary policy during a disinflationary and deflationary era, with the policy interest rates close to or at the zero bound.The questions of interest include the potency of the interest rate channel, the stability of broad money demand, and the possibility to use the exchange rate channel in order to affect economic activity and the price level.We use time series econometrics techniques, mainly vector autoregressions, focusing on Japan.While we find that basic relationships between the variables appear unaltered by deflation, a further stimulative impact is difficult to implement once the zero bound is hit.This can be due to political reasons, as in the case of introducing a tax on currency in order to bring about negative interest rates, or because the needed stimulus is very big, as in the case of yen depreciation to increase the price level.The last essay focuses on the fiscal policy aspects of the European Union's most recent enlargement.We examine whether the fiscal austerity required by the Maastricht criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact would be harmful for the socio-economic development of the new Member States.Introducing an indicator for socio-economic development and utilizing instrumental variables regressions, we find that fiscal retrenchment, including a lower level of public debt, would be advantageous for development.A policy implication is to maintain the Stability and Growth Pact or an equivalent intergovernmental fiscal rule to curb public spending and debt. Keywords: deflation, disinflation, zero lower bound, broadly defined liquidity, socio-economic development, Stability and Growth Pact, EU enlargement
  • Ikonen, Pasi; Oinonen, Sami; Schmöller, Michaela; Vilmi, Lauri (2020)
    Euro & talous 5/2020
    Stagnaatiolla tarkoitetaan hitaan talouskasvun kautta, johon usein liittyvät alhaiset korot ja hidas inflaatio. Vahvimmin stagnaatio on keskusteluissa yhdistetty Japanin talouskehitykseen 1990-luvun alun jälkeen. Euroalueella koronakriisi yhdistettynä jo valmiiksi ikääntyvään yhteiskuntaan, hidastuneeseen tuottavuuskehitykseen sekä paikoitellen jo ennen koronakriisiä korkeiksi nousseisiin velkatasoihin saattaa heikentää talouden elpymiskykyä. Uhkana on luisua hitaan inflaation ja alhaisten korkojen tasapainoon, ns. likviditeettiloukkuun. Riskinä on myös inflaatio-odotusten vaimentuminen. Euroalueella talouspolitiikalla on reagoitu päättäväisesti ja nopeasti koronakriisin heikentämiin talousnäkymiin. Oikein suunnatuilla politiikkatoimilla pystytäänkin vähentämään negatiivisen kehityskulun riskiä.
  • (2001)
    Euroopan keskuspankki. Kuukausikatsaus Huhtikuu
    Eurojärjestelmän vakuuskäytäntö perustuu Euroopan yhteisön perustamissopimukseen (jäljempänä perustamissopimus) kirjattuihin periaatteisiin sekä niihin toiminnallisiin suuntaviivoihin, jotka kehitettiin talous- ja rahaliiton (EMU) kolmannen vaiheen valmistelujen yhteydessä. Vakuuskäyntäntö suunniteltiin sellaiseksi, ettei se poikkeaisi merkittävästi vakiintuneista markkinakäytännöistä.EU-jäsenvaltioiden keskuspankkien menettelytapojen ja rahoitusjärjestelmien erot otettiin suunnittelussa asianmukaisesti huomioon. Vakuuksien jaottelu ykkös- ja kakkoslistan arvopapereihin näytti parhaiten palvelevan tarvetta yhtäältä varmistaa yhdenmukaiset vakuusmenettelyt ja välttää syrjintää ja toisaalta säilyttää jatkuvuus.Tässä artikkelissa kuvataan, miten vakuuskäytäntö suunniteltiin ja miten se toteutettiin, ja analysoidaan myös vakuuksien kokonaismäärästä johdettuja aggregoituja lukuja ja vakuuksien käyttöä eurojärjestelmän luotto-operaatioissa. Artikkelissa pohditaan lopuksi, miten Euroopan, Yhdysvaltojen ja Japanin rahoitusmarkkinoiden nopeat muutokset ja muun muassa euron käyttöönotto voivat vaikuttaa keskuspankkien vakuuspolitiikkaan.
  • Nieminen, Maritta; Tarkka, Juha (2014)
    Suomen Pankki. BoF online 10/2014
    Tässä artikkelissa tarkastellaan Euroopan keskuspankin ja eurojärjestelmän mandaattia eli sille määrättyjä tavoitteita, sille uskottuja tehtäviä ja sille annettuja toimivaltuuksia. Tavoitteena on selvittää kansainvälisten vertailujen avulla ja tutkimuskirjallisuuteen perustuen, mitä vaikutuksia EKP:n mandaatin muuttamisella voisi olla. Tarkastelu painottuu kysymykseen työllisyys- ja kasvutavoitteiden asemaan rahapolitiikassa.
  • Mehrotra, Aaron (2005)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2005
    Published in Journal of Comparative Economics, March 2007, Vol. 35, No 1, pp. 188-210
    We examine the role of the exchange and interest rate channels during recent deflation episodes in Japan, Hong Kong and China.We estimate open-economy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models for the three economies with different monetary regimes and varying degrees of openness.In both Japan and Hong Kong, shocks to the nominal effective exchange rate have a statistically significant impact on prices, with a notably stronger effect in Hong Kong.Our results provide evidence about the role of external influences in the deflation episodes of these economies, and could also be seen to weakly support suggestions to depreciate the currency in order to escape from a liquidity trap.The importance of the interest rate channel is also found to be high in Japan and Hong Kong.In China, where interest rates have not been an important monetary policy tool, neither exchange nor interest rate shocks significantly influence price developments. Keywords: Deflation, Zero lower bound, SVAR JEL Classification: E31, F41
  • He, Xinhua; Qin, Duo; Liu, Yimeng (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2011
    Published in Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Volume 10, Issue 3, August 2012, Pages 247-266
    The familiar claim of Chinese currency manipulation is generally asserted without reference to empirical evidence. To investigate the legitimacy of the claim, we ask if the undervalued misalignment found in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) over the past decade has any recent historical precedents. Four cases are examined: the Japanese yen, the Deutsche mark, the Singapore dollar and the Taiwan dollar. Panel-based misalignment estimates of the REER of the four currencies are obtained using quarterly data from the late 1970s to the early 2000s. Our estimates suggest that there are precedents to the recent misalignment of the RMB in terms of magnitude, duration or breadth of currency coverage, and that a net build-up in foreign asset does not necessarily result in currency misalignment. In addition to finding little empirical justification for the claim of Chinese currency manipulation, we note that REER misalignment runs a risk of propagating inflation in the home economy.
  • Xing, Yuqing (2006)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2006
    This paper examines the FDI-exchange rate nexus in the context of one FDI source and two host countries.It focuses on the effect of exchange rates on relative FDI inflows between the two host countries.The theoretical analysis shows explicitly that relative FDI inflows are a function of relative real exchange rates.In particular, if one host country devalues its currency against that of the source country more than the other does, FDI into the former country will be expected to increase relative to the other country. The theoretical inference is examined with Japanese FDI in manufacturing industries of China and ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand).The empirical results generally support the theoretical conclusion, suggesting that the real devaluation of the Chinese Yuan undercut FDI into the ASEAN-4. Keywords: FDI, Exchange rate, China, ASEAN-4 JEL classification: F14, F23, F31
  • Xing, Yuqing (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2007
    Published in Journal of Asian Economics, Volume 18, Issue 4, August 2007, Pages 685-700
    This paper analyzes dynamic changes of China's intra-industry trade with its major trading partners, Japan and the US, from 1980 to 2004.It also investigates to what extent foreign direct investment promoted intra-industry trade.The empirical results show that, while shares of China's intra-industry trade with both Japan and U.S rose substantially, its intraindustry trade with Japan has reached 35 per cent of the overall trade, considerably larger than 10 per cent with the US.Sino-Japan intra-industry trade concentrated in the electrical and machinery sectors accounted for 52 per cent and 46 per cent of overall trade respectively.On the other hand, it is in the chemical and food sectors where intra-industry trade represented a relatively large proportion of Sino-US trade, 50 per cent and 30 per cent accordingly in each sector.In addition, the analysis indicates that Japanese direct investment in China performed a significant role in enhancing intra-industry trade between Japan and China.However, it found no evidence that the US direct investment in China contributed to the growth of the bilateral intra-industry trade between the two countries. JEL:F14, F23 Key Words: Intra-industry trade, FDI, China
  • Angrick, Stefan; Naoyuki, Yoshino (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2018
    Monetary policy in most major economies has traditionally focused on control of the interbank interest rate to achieve an inflation target. Monetary policy in transition economies, in contrast, relied on a mixed system of price-based and quantity based instruments and targets. Japanese monetary policy up to the 1990s was based on such a mix, and echoes of this system are today found in China’s monetary policy set-up. We explore the transition of these two monetary policy regimes historically and quantitatively with institutional comparison and Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models. Specifically, we examine the role of the interbank rate and “window guidance,” a policy by which authorities use “moral suasion” to communicate target quotas for lending growth directly to commercial banks. In Japan’s case, we compile historical statistics on window guidance from newspapers and industry sources. For China, we apply Romer–Romer text analysis and computational linguistic techniques to policy reports to quantify information on window guidance.We empirically demonstrate the declining effectiveness of quantity measures and the increasing importance of price measures. We end with a policy assessment of managing the transition of monetary policy from a quantity-based system to a price-based system.
  • Punzi, Maria Teresa (2012)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2012
    This paper presents a two-sector, two-country model showing that inflation in the housing market, a low personal savings rate, and a construction investment boom can contribute to a large current account de cit. In the model, demand by a group of households in the domestic country is constrained by the availability of collateral. This implies more procyclical debt capacity because constrained households can borrow against the increase in the value of their houses during an expansion. A higher degree of financial liberalization and development helps constrained households reach higher loan-to-value ratios, thus relaxing their borrowing constraints. The resulting higher net worth and lower need for savings imply a worsening current account.
  • Skolnik, Amy (1988)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/1988
    Given the interdependence of today's global markets, it would be impossible for European integration to occur without affecting the rest of the world. The current triangle between the U.S., Japan, and EC is very precarious and none of these countries can avoid the others' influences. However, this is a matter that the EC seems to be neglecting and with the coming of 1992, many countries fear that the internal market will result in a rise in trade barriers and protectionism for everyone outside. This paper looks at the reactions and concerns of the U.S. and Japan towards the internal market as well as EC relations with Eastern European and EFTA countries. Though the true affects of 1992 are impossible to predict, and the EC Commission claims that no "European fortress" is being built, many of its actions indicate otherwise. In response, much of the rest of the world is discussing alternative methods and the possibility of new trade associations. With this international cooperation in mind, it is not in the EC's best interest to alienate itself from the rest of the world's markets.
  • Alhonsuo, Sampo (2006)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 2
    Financial results of Japanese banks have improved. The amount of non-performing loans has declined to an average level by international standards. Data on the Chinese banking sector show that nonperforming loans and related loan losses are still a major problem.
  • Babecký, Jan; Komárek, Lubos; Komárková, Zlatuse (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2012
    Published in National Institute Economic Review, Volume 223, Issue 1, 2013, Pages R16-R34 as Convergence of Returns on Chinese and Russian Stock Markets with World Markets: National and Sectoral Perspectives.
    Interest in examining the financial linkages of economies has increased in the wake of the 2008/2009 global financial crisis. Applying the concepts of beta- and sigma-convergence of stock market returns, we assess changes over time in the degree of stock market integration between Russia and China as well as between them and the United States, the euro area and Japan. Our analysis is based on national and sectoral data spanning the period September 1995 to October 2010. Overall, we find evidence for gradually increasing stock market integration after the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 1998 Russian financial cri-sis. Following a major disruption caused by the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, the process of stock market integration resumes between Russia and China, and with world markets. Notably, the episode of sigma-divergence from the 2008/2009 crisis is stronger for China than Russia. We also find that the process of stock market integration and the impact of the recent crisis have not been uniform at the sectoral level, suggesting potential for d-versification of risk across sectors. JEL classification: C23, G15, G12. Keywords: Stock market integration, beta-convergence, sigma-convergence, China, Russia, sectoral and national analysis