Browsing by Author "Koivu, Tuuli"

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  • Koivu, Tuuli (2002)
    BOFIT Online 2002:11
    The financial sectors in the Baltic countries have developed quite rapidly over recent years and there are currently no immediate threats to their stability.However, the Baltic financial sectors are still below the level of development of the financial sectors in EU countries.The difference is remarkable both in the level of financing but also in the variety of instruments available in the markets.Even the banking sectors, which dominate the financing in the Baltic countries, are relatively small.The Baltic security markets are lagging behind the other EU accession countries and the development of that sector has been stagnant even during the recent period of growth. Key words: financial systems, banking, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania
  • Bank of Finland; Koivu, Tuuli; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2005)
    Economic Developments Policy Markets Opinion No 1-2/2004 Andy G. Ji: Chinese stock market struggles to find its place in the SOE reform No 3/2004 Tapio Korhonen: Monetary regulation in a changing China No 4/2004 Mikael Mattlin: Trade effects of Taiwanese investment in Mainland China
  • Bank of Finland; Koivu, Tuuli; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2005)
    Economic Developments Policy Markets Opinion No 1/2005 Barbara Bils and Tuuli Koivu Regional inequalities widening further in China No 2/2005 Margit Molnar The challenges facing public spending policy No 3/2005 Irène Hors China’s governance in transition: Adjusting relations across levels of government No 4/2005 Aaron Mehrotra Mainland China’s experience with deflation – A comparison with Japan and Hong Kong
  • Bank of Finland; Koivu, Tuuli; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2007)
    Economic Developments Policy Markets Opinion 1/2006: Hard data vs. sentiment indicators - Do they give the same picture of the Chinese economy? by Aaron Mehrotra and Jouko Rautava 2/2006: Total factor productivity projections cloud China's long-term growth prospects by Juuso Kaaresvirta 3/2006: Improving Banking Supervision by David G Mayes, Liisa Halme and Aarno Liuksila 4/2006: Can exchange rate policy reduce China's trade surplus? by Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Tuuli Koivu
  • Garcia-Herrero, Alicia; Koivu, Tuuli (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2007
    Published in Economie Internationale, Volume 116, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 53-92 as China's exchange rate policy and asian trade
    This paper shows empirically that China's trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi, although the size of the surplus is such that exchange rate policy alone will be unable to address the imbalance. One of the main reasons why the reduction in the trade surplus is limited is that Chinese imports are reduced with a real appreciation of the renminbi.By estimating bilateral import equations, we find that it is imports from other Southeast Asian countries which fall.This result reflects the vertical integration of Southeast Asia with China through the 'Asian production network'.We find, in turn, that imports from Germany - which serve China's domestic demand - behave as one would expect, ie they increase with renminbi real appreciation.All in all, our results raise concerns on the impact of renminbi appreciation on Southeast Asia even if regional currencies do not follow the renminbi's upward trajectory. Keywords: China, trade, exports, real exchange rate JEL classification: F1, F14
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Koivu, Tuuli; Mehrotra, Aaron (2008)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Expert view 3/2008
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Koivu, Tuuli (2008)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2
    China s economy has been growing rapidly for the past three decades. The vigorous pace of growth has increased China s weight in the world economy, and it is now the third largest economy in the world, after the United States and Japan. Its significance in world trade is larger still, as it occupies a unique position as the manufacturing workshop of the world. Developments in China therefore affect prices elsewhere too, including the euro area.
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Koivu, Tuuli (2008)
    BOFIT Online 2008/1
    China was able to combine slow inflation with very rapid economic growth for more than a decade. Finally, in 2007 inflation started to accelerate and there are a number of factors that may increase the pressure on China's price level in the near future. Most importantly, money supply growth is expected to remain rapid due to the ballooning foreign currency inflows. In addition, according to some estimates, economic growth has accelereated above its long-term potential and also a number of structural factors are likely to push production costs up. Counterbalancing part of the rising costs, productivity growth has somewhat accelerated during recent years. With low cost levels and fastly growing exports, China is believed to have exported deflation into its trading partners in recent years. However, due to the fact that the direct impacts of globalisation on inflation in the advanced economies have been moderate, also the effect of a possible rise in China's cost leve! l on inflation in eg euro area is expected to remain small. However, the indirect impacts on price dynamics are much more difficult to forecast. Keywords: China, inflation, monetary policy
  • Koivu, Tuuli (2001)
    BOFIT Online 2001/8
    AbstractA deteriorating demographic situation, rising unemployment, difficulties in taxes, and a growing informal sector have created substantial difficulties during recent years for the pay-asyou-go (PAYG) pension systems in Baltic countries.For the purpose of guaranteeing solid pension systems, all three Baltic countries are implementing "three-pillar" systems, which supporters claim will be more robust to demographic changes.Latvia leads the Baltics in pension reform, having all pillars of the system working. Nevertheless, Baltic pension reform remains a politically thorny issue.This fact may delay plans to have three-pillar systems operational in all three countries by the beginning of 2003.Keywords: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Pension systems, Social security
  • Koivu, Tuuli (2002)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2002
    The relationship between financial sector and economic growth in transition countries has been largely ignored in the earlier empirical literature.In this paper, we analyse the finance-growth nexus using a fixed-effects panel model and unbalanced panel data from 25 transition countries during the period 1993-2000.We measure the qualitative development in the banking sectors using the margin between lending and deposit interest rates.Our second variable for the level of financial sector development is the amount of bank credit allocated to the private sector as a share of GDP.According to our results, the interest rate margin is significantly and negatively related to economic growth.This outcome is in line with theoretical models and has important policy implications.On the other hand, a rise in the amount of credit does not seem to accelerate economic growth.The main reasons behind this result could be the numerous banking crises the transition countries have experienced and the soft budget constraints that are still prevalent in many transition countries. Due to these specific characteristics the growth in credit has not always been sustainable and in some cases it may have led to a decline in growth rates. Keywords: financial sector, transition economies, economic growth, panel data
  • Koivu, Tuuli (2008)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2008
    Published in China Economic Review, 2009; Volume 20, Issue 3, September, Pages 455–470
    Chinese authorities have traditionally relied mainly on administrative and quantitative measures in conducting monetary policy, with interest rates playing a less prominent role. Additional support for this view resides in a number of earlier studies that have found that the impact of interest rates on the real economy has been miniscule. However, taking into account numerous reforms in the financial sector and more widely in the Chinese economy, interest rates may have gained some influence in the last few years. It is important to study the effectiveness of interest rates also in light of future reforms of the monetary policy tools in China. Whereas administrative policy measures were effective in guiding the behaviour of state-owned enterprises, the authorities may need to increase the use of more market-oriented monetary policy tools as the share of the economy in private and foreign ownership grows. We use a vector error correction model to study, within a credit demand framework, whether the impact of interest rates in China has become stronger over the last decade. Our results suggest that loan demand has indeed become more dependent on interest rates. albeit the channel from interest rate to the real economy is still weak. JEL classification: E52, P24 Keywords: China, monetary policy
  • Koivu, Tuuli (2010)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Expert view 5/2010
  • Koivu, Tuuli (2004)
    EURO & TALOUS 4
    Kiina on noussut nopeasti maailman nsuurimpien talouksien joukkoon. Maan painoarvon odotetaan edelleen kasvavan, mutta talouskehitykseen liittyy myös monia haasteita.
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Koivu, Tuuli; Mattlin, Mikael; Mehrotra, Aaron; Rautava, Jouko; Sutela, Pekka (2008)
    BOFIT Online 8/2008
    Suomen Pankin Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos (BOFIT) järjesti marraskuussa 2008 Kiinan taloutta koskevan tietoiskun, jossa BOFITin tutkijat esittelivät näkemyksiään Kiinan talouden eri lohkoilta. Tässä julkaisussa olevat artikkelit perustuvat tietoiskussa pidettyihin esityksiin. Ensimmäinen artikkeli käsittelee Kiinan asemaa maailmantaloutta kurittavan kriisin keskellä, tehtyjen talouspolitiikkatoimien vaikuttavuutta ja lyhyen aikavälin kasvunäkymiä. Toisessa kirjoituksessa keskitytään talouspoliittisessa keskustelussa tärkeällä sijalla olleeseen hinta- ja kustannuskehitykseen. Seuraava artikkeli käsittelee Kiinan roolia maailmantaloudessa ja raaka-ainekaupassa. Neljäs artikkeli pohtii sitä, miten valtion rooli on muuttumassa Kiinan taloudessa. Kaksi viimeistä kirjoitusta keskittyvät Kiinan pitkän aikavälin kasvukysymyksiin sekä Suomen, Venäjän ja Kiinan välisiin taloussuhteisiin. Avainsanat: Kiina, talouskehitys, talouspolitiikka, inflaatio, raaka-aineet, pitkän aikavälin kasvu
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Koivu, Tuuli; Mehrotra, Aaron (2008)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Asiantuntijan näkemys 3/2008
  • Koivu, Tuuli (2004)
    Suomen Pankki. Rahoitusmarkkinaraportti 4
    Kiinan pankkisektori on suuri ja se vastaa pääosasta Kiinan rahoitusmarkkinoita. Suuri osa sektorista on edelleen valtion omistuksessa, eivätkä kaikki pankit vielä toimi markkinalähtöisin perustein. Parhaillaan pankkeja uudistetaan vauhdilla, sillä Kiinan markkinoiden avautumisen ulkomaisille pankeille odotetaan lisäävän kilpailua.
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Koivu, Tuuli (2008)
    EURO & TALOUS 4
    Kiinan nopea talouskasvu on jatkunut yhtäjaksoisesti jo kolmen vuosikymmenen ajan. Voimakas kasvu on lisännyt Kiinan painoarvoa maailmantaloudessa, ja maa on kooltaan jo kolmanneksi suurin kansantalous Yhdysvaltain ja Japanin jälkeen. Kiinan merkitys maailmankaupassa on tätäkin suurempi, sillä sen rooli koko maailman tehtaana on ainutlaatuinen.Tästä juontuu se seikka, että Kiinan kehityksellä on vaikutusta hintoihin muissakin maissa, myös Suomessa.
  • Koivu, Tuuli (2010)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Asiantuntijan näkemys 5/2010
  • Koivu, Tuuli; Korhonen, Tapio (2006)
    BOFIT Online 1/2006
    Maailman kasvaneet rahoitusepätasapainot ovat viime vuosina lisänneet keskustelua Kiinan valuuttakurssin tasosta.Keskustelu on ollut osin yksipuolista ja se on liian usein jäänyt kahdenvälisten kauppaepätasapainojen tarkasteluun.Kiinan kaltaisen maan nousu maailman suurimpien vientimaiden joukkoon on kuitenkin monien muiden tekijöiden kuin edullisen valuuttakurssin ansiota, eikä valuuttakurssin roolia epätasapainojen purkamisessakaan pidä liioitella.Epätasapainojen syitä mietittäessä merkittäviä ovat esimerkiksi erot maiden säästämisasteissa.Kiinassa kotitalouksien ja yritysten säästämisvimma on poikkeuksellisen korkea, ja pääomanliikkeiden ollessa vielä suurelta osin säänneltyjä säästöt johtavat korkeaan investointiasteeseen. Asiasanat: Kiina, Yhdysvallat, kansainvälinen talous, rahapolitiikka
  • Koivu, Tuuli; Mehrotra, Aaron; Nuutilainen, Riikka (2008)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2008
    Published in Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies. Volume 7, Issue 2, May 2009, pages 219-235 as "An analysis of Chinese money and prices using a McCallum-type rule"
    This paper evaluates the usefulness of a McCallum monetary policy rule based on money supply for maintaining price stability in mainland China. We examine whether excess money relative to rulebased values provides information that improves the forecasting of price developments. The results suggest that our monetary variable helps in predicting both consumer and corporate goods price inflation, but the results for consumer prices depend on the forecasting period. Nevertheless, growth of the Chinese monetary base has tracked the McCallum rule quite closely. Moreover, results using a structural vector autoregression suggest that our measure of excess money supply could be used to identify monetary policy shocks in the Chinese economy