Browsing by Author "Kuismanen, Mika"

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  • Åkerholm, Johnny; Hämäläinen, Timo; Kuismanen, Mika (1995)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 18/1995
    In this paper a simple and transparent macroeconomic model is developed for the evaluation of alternative macroeconomic scenarios.With the help of the model it is evaluated how fast economic growth and what kind of structure of demand and supply is needed in order to reduce unemployment to 200 000 persons by the year 2000 given both the government budget and external constraints.The model includes 138 variables: 5 behavioral equations, 75 identities, and 58 exogenous variables.The model simulations suggest the following conclusions.The target to reduce unemployment rate to about 8 per cent can be reached only if annual economic growth is relatively fast, more than 6 per cent, and relies heavily on private services.It is not possible to reduce the indebtedness of the public sector very quickly, because public transfers or tax reliefs are needed to support private consumption. Wages can rise only modestly in order not to allow the current account to worsen too much.Nominal earnings per employee can rise only 5 per cent.With assumed 2 per cent inflation rate real wages can then increase 3 per cent.This is 0.5 percentage units less than the growth of labour productivity.
  • Kuismanen, Mika (1995)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 17/1995
    The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between import prices and exchange rates in Finland.The concept of pass-through is associated with how prices of internationally traded goods are affected by changes in exchange rates. Pass-through is said to be complete when the exporter of the good does not adjust prices in his home currency.This means that exchange rate fluctuations are totally reflected in local import prices abroad.On the contrary, if import prices in local currencies remain stable, it is the prices received by exporters that must adjust to exchange rate movements.This paper presents a simple static theoretical model for pass-through.After that, some estimation results for Finnish import prices are shown.Estimation results are mixed, but it is evident that depreciation of markka increases import prices.
  • Kuismanen, Mika; Spolander, Mikko (1995)
    Useiden maiden kokemukset inflaatiosta kymmenen viime vuoden ajalta ovat korostaneet odotusten tärkeyttä.Niinpä inflaatioanalyysissa on entistä enemmän keskitytty odotusten rooliin inflaatioprosessissa ja siihen, miten valittu talouspolitiikka vaikuttaa odotusten muodostumiseen.Sen vuoksi odotusten muodostumisen tutkiminen ja odotusten mallintaminen ovat tulleet aiempaa tärkeämmiksi.
  • Kuismanen, Mika; Spolander, Mikko (1995)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 69 ; 3 ; March
  • Kuismanen, Mika (2000)
    Bank of Finland. Discussion papers 5/2000
    It is well known that estimation of the labour supply function is complicated by the non-linearity of the individual s budget constraint.Non-linearity may be caused by a number of factors such as the structure of the tax/benefit scheme or overtime rates. Non-linearities also cause problems in interpreting the policy implications of the estimates.In this study we use a well-structured econometric labour supply model that mimics actual budget constraints as closely as possible to analyse the labour-supply effects of different income tax regimes and systems. In addition to the empirically-specified labour supply model, we construct, for the first time in Finland, a behavioural microsimulation model.Our intent is to contribute to the tax debate in Finland by simulating several suggested changes in the tax system.Our simulation results show that none of the proposed reforms are self-financing.Revenue-neutral move to a proportional tax system does not have major effects on labour supply.The most pronounced behavioural effects are achieved when marginal tax rates are reduced at the lower end of the income tax schedule. Keywords: microsimulation, labour supply, taxation
  • Kuismanen, Mika (2000)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 74 ; 4
  • Kuismanen, Mika; Spolander, Mikko (1994)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 21/1994
    This paper gives a short overview of how inflation expectations are measured in Finland and considers the possibilities of using such data to predict actual inflation. In Finland, there are three regularly published surveys, which include questions on ex post perceptions and/or ex ante expectations of the direction of change in the general price level or in the inflation rate.They are conducted by Statistics Finland (TK), the Confederation of Finnish Industry and Employers (TT) and the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat (HS). In the TK data expectations match realized rates of inflation quite well but the time series is too short.In the TT data the time series is long enough but the match between expectations and realized rates is poor.In HS data the match is quite good and the time series covers more than one business cycle. According to the correlation analysis, it seems that the TK data and the HS data could be used to form some kind of estimate of the future rate of consumer price inflation.By contrast, the TT data is probably better for predicting wholesale, producer or export price inflation. Although the HS data seems to offer us the best modelling possibilities, it is not very useful as a single exogenous variable in explaining realized rates of inflation.The small number of observations alone limits the use of advanced econometric methods and several exogenous variables.With the accumulation of more observations over time, however, we will be able to expand the model and the use of alternative data.For particular, the TK data seems quite promising.
  • Kuismanen, Mika (2000)
    Tuloverojärjestelmiin on tehty muutoksia 1980- ja 1990-luvuilla useissa maissa, myös Suomessa.Keskustelua käydään meillä parhaillaankin veroasteen alentamisesta.Toteutusta vasta ei ole kuitenkaan päästy vielä yksimielisyyteen. Mika Kuismanen tarkastelee artikkelissaan erilaisten verouudistusten mahdollisia vaikutuksia yksilöiden käyttäytymiseen ja työn tarjontaan.