Browsing by Author "Laurila, Juhani"

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  • Singh, Rupinder; Laurila, Juhani (1999)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/1999
    The macro economic stabilisation in Azerbaijan has been successful. Following cessation of conflict with Armenia, and decline of GDP by 60 per cent from 1990 to 1995, the government in effect implemented a big-bang reform process in 1995.The inflation rate has now declined to the lowest rate of any transition country and important reforms in the monetary-fiscal mix have been undertaken.The second plank of first generation reforms, liberalisation, has also been successfully implemented with liberalisation of prices, the trade and foreign exchange regimes and virtual completion of small-scale privatisation, although the onset of the Russian crisis in 1998 has impacted negatively both internal and external balances.The paper presents the current economic picture for Azerbaijan and then assesses economic policy issues facing the country. Azerbaijan is well endowed with natural resources, particularly oil but also gas.The second part of the paper considers the question by focussing on policy issues related to the potential flow of oil-based monies into Azerbaijan.The possibility of the "Dutch Disease" syndrome impacting Azerbaijan through a rising real exchange rate on the non-oil sector is not considered to be a problem at present but is expected to become a policy concern in the medium- to long term.Structural reforms in public finance to deal with expected surpluses are lagging and are necessary in the next phase of the transition of Azerbaijan.Moreover, significant reforms are required in banking - privatisation, improvement in regulation and supervision and in the implementation of supporting legal rights, given the current lack of financial intermediation. Keywords: Azerbaijan, economic development, oil, Dutch Disease, transition economies
  • Laurila, Juhani (2002)
    BOFIT Online 2002/01
    The study makes an effort to elaborate the question, how Russian political, geopolitical and economic dependencies and aspirations may influence transit transport flows related to the trade between the European Union and Russia, and on Russian decisions to invest in transport infrastructures.The factors influencing on the choice of export transit transport corridors range from a number of long-term economic and geo-political security considerations of the Russian energy sector to a short-term needs to exert pressures to gain political benefits.Thus, three factors seem to have a major impact on the direction and volume the transit transport: 1) Russian national geo-strategic security considerations aiming at the maintenance of economic autarchy and spheres of interest, 2) the structure of trade between the European Union and Russia, and 3) the unwillingness of Russia to purchase from the new border republics transit transport services, available for free during the FSU era.Finally, the study contains statistics on the volumes and values of the transit transport flows between the European Union and Russia by commodity groups and by corridors (Ukraine-Slovakia, Poland-Belarus, Lithuania-Belarus, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland).
  • Laurila, Juhani; Hirvensalo, Inkeri (1996)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 5/1996
    The authors present the results of the 1995 Bank of Finland survey (previous surveys were 1991 and 1993) on Finnish direct investments to the CIS, the Baltics and other CEE countries.The survey describes the situation during or at the end of 1994 and focuses mainly on Estonia and Russia, the main targets of Finnish direct investment in Eastern Europe. The results indicate that most Finnish direct investment went to service industries - only about a third went to other sectors. Direct investment was generally in the form of equity capital, while about a third was in the form of loans.The level of local banking services and the availability of credit appeared to be fairly low in Russia and Estonia.Investor experiences were described most often 'tolerable' in Russia and 'satisfactory' in Estonia.The future expectations of investors, in comparison with the results of the previous survey two years ago, remained positive and unchanged in Estonia, but somewhat less favourable than 1993 for Russia.Excessive, arbitrary bureaucracy was considered a major drawback by nearly all respondents. The authors draw attention to current problems with data collection and data quality.Presently, there is apparently nobody who can accurately specify the number of enterprises under Finnish ownership actually operating in Russia or Estonia. Keywords: direct investment, Russia, Estonia, Eastern Europe
  • Laurila, Juhani (1994)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 3/1994
  • Laurila, Juhani (1992)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 66 ; 3 ; March
  • Laurila, Juhani (1994)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 3/1994
  • Laurila, Juhani (1995)
    Suomen Pankki. A 94
    Suomen Pankki toimi Suomen ja Neuvostoliiton clearingtilien pitäjänä valtion lukuun koko sodan jälkeisen ajan vuoden 1990 loppuun.Ulkomaankaupan toimintaympäristön muuttuminen 1970-luvulta lähtien johti clearingmaksuliikenteen hoitamisessa ja clearingtiliehtojen noudattamisessa ongelmiin, joiden takia Suomen Pankki joutui puuttumaan alun perin ajateltua aktiivisemmin clearingin hoitoon.Tutkimuksessa selvitellään niitä syitä, joiden vuoksi keinot idänkaupan epätasapainon sekä maksu- ja rahoitusongelmien ratkaisemiseen eivät olleet riittäviä.Lisäksi tutkimuksessa vertaillaan Suomen ja Neuvostoliiton välistä clearingjärjestelmää muihin vastaaviin kahden- ja monenkeskisiin maksujärjestelmiin. Kokemukset Suomen ja Neuvostoliiton välisestä clearingistä tukevat käsitystä, että valtioiden väliset clearingmaksujärjestelmät hyödyttävät kauppaa vain tiukasti sovellettuina lähinnä sellaisissa oloissa, joissa pankkipalvelut sekä mahdollisuudet kahden- tai monenkeskiseen, vaihdettavilla valuutoilla käytävään kauppaan ovat rajoitetut tai puuttuvat.Clearingmaksujärjestelmän toimivuus edellyttää, että sitä käytetään lähinnä juoksevien maksujen, muttei luottojen, kanavointiin. Julkaisu sisältää runsaasti tietoa clearingin historiasta, toimintamekanismeista ja menettelytavoista, joten se sopii perus- ja lähdeteokseksi.
  • Laurila, Juhani (1983)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 57 ; 4 ; April
  • Laurila, Juhani (1996)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 2/1996
    Katsauksessa hahmotetaan yleisiä kehityssuuntia lähialueilla ja lähialueyhteistyössä.Lisäksi tarkastellaan äskeisiä tapahtumia sekä vuoden 1995 taloudellista ja sosiaalista kehitystä tuoreimpien tilastojen valossa.Lähialueiden bruttokansantuote, tuotanto ja investoinnit jatkavat kuudetta perättäistä vuotta laskuaan.Vaikka Pietari on koko Venäjän puitteissa jäämässä entistä enemmän Moskovan varjoon, se on silti lähialueiden kiistämätön kasvukeskus ja tarjoaa sellaisena huomattavat kasvumahdollisuudet myös Suomen ja Venäjän väliselle kaupalle. Karjalan ja Murmanskin luonnonrikkauksien hyödyntäminen on toistaiseksi suhteellisen vähäistä, koska se vaatii suhteellisen suuria investointeja, joihin länsimaat eivät vielä ole valmiita.Myös Venäjän pyrkimykset pitää luonnonvarojensa hallinta omien yritystensä ja viranomaistensa käsissä vaikuttavat kehitykseen. Helsingin ja Pietarin välisten liikenneyhteyksien parantaminen näyttäisi tällä hetkellä edistävän tehokkaimmin Suomen suhteellista etua lähialuekaupassa.Myös ympäristöriskien hallinta varsinkin Pietarissa ja sen ympäristössä samoin kuin Pietarin rappeutuneen infrastruktuurin ja rakennuskannan korjaaminen ovat huomattavia haasteita suomalaisille yrittäjille.Suomen EU-jäsenyyden myötä tarjoutuva rahoitus avaa uusia mahdollisuuksia lähialueyhteistyölle, ja parantaa samalla varsinkin kaakkois- ja itä-Suomen rajamaakuntien taloutta ja työllisyyttä. Avainsanat: aluetalous, Venäjä, lähialueet, Pietari, Leningradin lääni, Karjalan tasavalta.
  • Laurila, Juhani (1992)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 4/1992
  • Laurila, Juhani (1996)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1996
    This article draws a historical perspective on clearing systems and payment unions examining their manifestations from simple barter systems to EMU.The introduction of commensurability, transferability and convertibility and their cost-saving effects are explained in formal terms and by means of numerical illustration. The prerequisites for introducing convertibility through clearing unions are discussed generally and in terms of the CIS.Based on the experiences of the Interstate Bank and the Finnish-Soviet clearing system, the author concludes that an arrangement similar to the European Payment Union would not, for a number of reasons, provide a viable solution for CIS clearing arrangements.Rather, the rapidly developing commercial banking sector and multi-CIS financial-industrial groups potentially have the capability to adequately accommodate the problem as long as members pursue sound monetary and foreign exchange rate policies. Keywords: clearing, payment union, CIS
  • Laurila, Juhani (1999)
    BOFIT Online 10/1999
    Azerbaijan is a post-socialist transition country affected by regional tensions similar to those found in Armenia, Georgia, Tajikistan, Macedonia and Croatia.This article examines the historical background of a specific source of tensions, namely the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, its legacies and significance for the economic transition of Azerbaijan.The Azerbijani economy has been among those to suffer most after the demise of the Soviet Union. These legacies underlie Azerbaijan's current situation whereby macroeconomic policies and structural reforms are driven by developments in exploration and exploitation of the Caspian hydrocarbon resources.The author finds evidence that economic and commercial cooperation can reduce political risks and discourage nationalistic power politics both in domestic and international contexts. A firm and continuing commitment by the Azerbaijani government to pursue the process of economic transition combined with peace and stability in the region is necessary for the progress of transition.The rate of reform appears to be critical for the transition process in Azerbaijan and the Caucasus generally.Rapid economic growth fuelled by the expected influx of oil revenues could find Azerbaijan ill prepared to lock in the quality and sustainability of such economic growth.Subsequent papers in this series will deal with the implications for economic development, process of transition, structural reforms in Azerbaijan.** The historical analysis brings up some interesting parallelisms with the ones seen in the recent Balkan crisis. Keywords: Azerbaijan, oil, international organizations, transition economies
  • Laurila, Juhani; Singh, Rupinder (2000)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2000
    Published in Russian and East European Finance and Trade, vol 37, no 3 (2001), pp. 25-76
    The aim is to review transition literature for evidence that supports sequential reform strategy, as presented in this report. The second part discusses the findings in the context of Azerbaijan, a formerly socialist transition economy with interesting initial conditions.Evidence of the country's current need to focus on improving public services fits well with the sequential reform view. The authors argue that constraints captured by initial conditions (human resources, administrative capacities, traditions, etc.) necessitate sequencing of reforms and outline general aspects of a sequential reform strategy designed to expedite the transition process.The literature survey supports the Washington Consensus recommendations for starting transition with macroeconomic reforms, but over time initial conditions inevitably constrain and necessitate sequencing.In other words, reform efforts initially need to be directed across the widest possible front, but later in transition the emphasis of reform efforts needs to shift from one area to another.In the later stages, emphasis needs to be laid on improvement of public sector governance to support and promote macroeconomic reforms and formation of a healthy corporate sector. Democratic institutions arise with economic growth generated by the corporate sector.
  • Laurila, Juhani (1993)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 10/1993
  • Laurila, Juhani (1993)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 10/1993
  • Laurila, Juhani; Hirvensalo, Inkeri (1996)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1996
    Artikkeli perustuu Suomen Pankin vuonna 1995 tekemään selvitykseen, jossa tutkittiin Suomesta IVY-maihin, Baltiaan ja muihin KIE-maihin tehtyjä suoria sijoituksia.Artikkelissa kuvataan loppuvuoden 1994 tilannetta ja tarkastellaan pääosin sijoituksia Viroon ja Venäjälle, jotka ovat Suomesta tehtyjen suorien sijoitusten tärkeimmät kohdemaat Itä-Euroopassa.Suurin osa sijoituksista kohdistui palvelusektoriin ja vain kolmannes teollisuuteen.Suora sijoitus tehtiin suurimmaksi osaksi osakepääoman muotoisena ja vain kolmannes sijoitettiin lainoina.Sijoittajien kokemuksia yritystoiminnasta Venäjällä kuvattiin lähinnä "välttäviksi" ja Virossa "tyydyttäviksi", mutta byrokratia koettiin toimintaympäristön suurimmaksi ongelmaksi sekä Virossa että Venäjällä. Avainsanat: suorat sijoitukset, Venäjä, Viro, Itä-Eurooppa
  • Laurila, Juhani (1994)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 8/1994
  • Laurila, Juhani (2002)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2002
    This study compares transition processes in countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union (FSU) and sub-Saharan Africa.By widening the scope from most- to least-developed transition economies, the study establishes the importance of a strong state with evolved institutional capacity to protect citizens, enforce property rights and generate social capital.The evidence presented further argues that enforceable, credible property rights with associated market discipline are among the best antidotes to corruption, shadow economies, criminal injustice and poverty.The presence of accountable institutions also influences economic growth and the ability of a country to attract trade and foreign direct investment.Consequently, when institutions of FSU and sub-Saharan countries develop to the point they become attractive to traders and investors from rich countries, their governments need to focus on abolition of barriers to trade, investment and capital.The author commends the recent reorientation of the international donor community towards encouraging recipient governments to commit credibly to increasing capacities of their state institutions with a view to supporting property-based rule of law and social order.Key words: sub-Saharan Africa, former Soviet Union, property rights, institutions, growth, international trade, development assistance
  • Laurila, Juhani (1982)
    Suomen Pankki. Yleistajuiset selvitykset. A 54/1982
  • Laurila, Juhani (1993)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 5/1993