Browsing by Subject "Neuvostoliitto"

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  • Hickok, Susan (1977)
    Keskustelualoitteita. Discussion Papers 4/1977
    Presented here is a survey of Finland's export market shares development from 1960 until 1975. It's purpose is to serve as part of a broader analysis of Finland's export competitiveness. Specifically, here Finland's foreign trade performance is analysed in terms of the changes in its yearly export market shares. The development of these shares and some suggestions as to the factors affecting Finland's competitiveness are given. However, conclusions about which factors determine any specific change in competitiveness (such as relative production costs or changes in production capacity) must be approached very cautiously as many factors are always in action at any given time.
  • Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2019
    Published in Journal of International Economics 2021; 131; July
    We study macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well-identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock had a significant effect on Finnish output. While the direct trade channel effect was rather moderate, the shock led to significant tightening of financial conditions. It was therefore endogenously amplified due to the propagation through the domestic financial sector. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all-out economic crisis. It can account for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990 − 1993). The crisis was triggered and prolonged by the meltdown of the overheated financial and banking sectors since 1989. We show that the financial system remained a major independent source of shocks throughout the depression.
  • Gulan, Adam (2021)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    What are the economic causes and consequences of large trade disruptions? Are they able to unleash a full-scale economic crisis? In recent years, the news has been full of events such as the US-China trade war, Brexit and even the collapse of tourism services exports in southern Europe following the outbreak of COVID-19. Finland has its own unique and still recent experience from the early 1990s, when the Soviet Union withdrew from the clearing trade agreement in December 1990.
  • Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha (2021)
    Journal of International Economics July
    Published in BoF DP 9/2019
    We study the macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well–identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock significantly affected Finnish output. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all–out crisis, and accounts for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990–1993). We show that shocks originating domestically played a major role throughout the depression.
  • Kim, Byung-Yeon (2000)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2000
    Published in Economic History Review vol 55, no 1 (2002), pp. 105-127
    Using recently available Soviet material, this paper analyses the causes of repressed inflation in the Soviet consumer market during 1965-1989.We found that retail price subsidies, which rose from 4% of state budget expenditure in 1965 to 20% in the late 1980s, intensified consumer market disequilibrium.The provision of these subsidies had negative effects on the market by maintaining the purchasing power of households for consumer goods and by increasing the budget deficit.Furthermore, the demand of enterprises for consumer goods without legitimate permission tended to increase during 1965-1989. Keywords: repressed inflation, Soviet Union, retail price subsidies, the siphoning effect, the budget deficit
  • Hirvensalo, Inkeri (1993)
  • Sutela, Pekka (1992)
  • Berkowitz, Daniel; Hoekstra, Mark; Schoors, Koen (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2012
    Published in Journal of Development Economics, Volume 110, September 2014, Pages 93–106 as Bank privatization, finance, and growth
    This paper examines the effect of banking on economic growth in modern Russia. To overcome simultaneity and selection, we exploit regional banking variation induced by the creation of ?specialized banks? (spetsbanks) in the last years of the Soviet Union (1988-1991). Consistent with the qualitative work of Joel Hellman [1993] and Juliet Johnson [2000], we show that these reforms generated an ideal natural experiment in that the concentration of spetsbanks is jointly uncorrelated with 15 predictors of future growth, including pre-banking income, education, anti-market sentiment, institutional quality, and government interference in the economy. Results indicate that while the presence of one additional spetsbank per million inhabitants increased total within-state lending to private firms and individuals by 14 to 26 percent in the early 2000s, it had no effect on investment or per capita income. In contrast, we find that spetsbanks increased employment. Additional results indicate that spetsbanks increased growth in regions in which they were less connected to government and were generally more similar to non-spetsbanks, as well as in regions that were better at protecting property rights. Our results thus strongly suggest that bank origins, political connections, and property rights are important determinants of effective finance. JEL: O4, F3, G2, P3 Keywords: finance, growth, banking, Russia
  • Égert, Balázs (2009)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2009
    This study seeks to determine the extent to which countries of the former Soviet Union are "infected" by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the trans-mission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in manufacturing. We complement this with two econometric exercises. First, we estimate nominal and real exchange rate models to see whether commodity prices are correlated with the exchange rate. Second, we run growth equations to analyse the possible effects of commodity prices and the dependency of economic growth on natural resources. Key words: Dutch disease, commodity prices, exchange rate, Commonwealth of Independent States. JEL Codes: E31, E32, F31, Q33
  • (1971)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 45 ; 6 ; June
  • Sutela, Pekka (1995)
  • Kuboniwa, Masaaki (2016)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 10/2016
    A Soviet legacy for present-day Russia is found in its resource dependency as well as its implicit exposition of resource rents from foreign trade in the national accounting. Estimating rents from the foreign trade of oil and gas, we demonstrate how large the GDP of the oil and gas sector had been in the Soviet Union and has been in present-day Russia, as well.
  • Laurila, Juhani (1992)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 66 ; 3 ; March
  • Freystätter, Hanna (2011)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2011
    This paper proposes a framework for studying the boom and bust in Finland in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We develop a small open economy DSGE model with balance sheet-constrained firms à la BGG and calibrate it to the Finnish economy. We use the model to simulate three events that are claimed to have played a key role in the Finnish boom-bust episode and compare the model outcome with actual Finnish data. Firstly, we assess in our DSGE framework the role of financial market deregulation in the 1980s in the boom that preceded the crises. Secondly, we use our model to evaluate the negative impact of the collapse of Soviet-Finnish trade at the beginning of 1991. Thirdly, we investigate the effect of the collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime in September 1992. We conclude that financial frictions combined with the shocks that hit the Finnish economy are able to produce a boom and a severe depression similar to the one observed in Finland in the late 1980s and early 1990s. A key finding is the crucial role played by the financial accelerator mechanism in the ability of the model to mimic the response of the Finnish economy to the shocks it encountered. A key contribution is the incorporating unconventional shocks into the model: domestic financial market shocks to capture the deregulation of the financial market; a capital obsolescence shock to model the sudden redundancy of Soviet-oriented manufacturing; and a shock from the international financial market, a country borrowing premium shock, to capture the collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime.
  • (1975)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 49 ; 3 ; March
  • Sutela, Pekka (2005)
    BOFIT Online 2005/7
    Trade with the USSR accounted for about 15 per cent of Finland's total exports in 1952-1990, peaking at more than a quarter in the early-to-mid 1980s.Such trade is routinely seen to have had a major beneficial impact on the Finnish economy, whether in terms of profitability, diversification or stability.At the same time, trade with the USSR is seen to have had a major negative impact on the economies of the Central European member countries of the CMEA. This paper discusses this paradox, looking at both the institutional arrangements of Finnish - Soviet trade and the available analytical evidence.Much research, however, still remains to be done. Key words: Finland - economic development, East - West trade, bilateralism, clearing.
  • Laurila, Juhani (1995)
    Suomen Pankki. A 94
    Suomen Pankki toimi Suomen ja Neuvostoliiton clearingtilien pitäjänä valtion lukuun koko sodan jälkeisen ajan vuoden 1990 loppuun.Ulkomaankaupan toimintaympäristön muuttuminen 1970-luvulta lähtien johti clearingmaksuliikenteen hoitamisessa ja clearingtiliehtojen noudattamisessa ongelmiin, joiden takia Suomen Pankki joutui puuttumaan alun perin ajateltua aktiivisemmin clearingin hoitoon.Tutkimuksessa selvitellään niitä syitä, joiden vuoksi keinot idänkaupan epätasapainon sekä maksu- ja rahoitusongelmien ratkaisemiseen eivät olleet riittäviä.Lisäksi tutkimuksessa vertaillaan Suomen ja Neuvostoliiton välistä clearingjärjestelmää muihin vastaaviin kahden- ja monenkeskisiin maksujärjestelmiin. Kokemukset Suomen ja Neuvostoliiton välisestä clearingistä tukevat käsitystä, että valtioiden väliset clearingmaksujärjestelmät hyödyttävät kauppaa vain tiukasti sovellettuina lähinnä sellaisissa oloissa, joissa pankkipalvelut sekä mahdollisuudet kahden- tai monenkeskiseen, vaihdettavilla valuutoilla käytävään kauppaan ovat rajoitetut tai puuttuvat.Clearingmaksujärjestelmän toimivuus edellyttää, että sitä käytetään lähinnä juoksevien maksujen, muttei luottojen, kanavointiin. Julkaisu sisältää runsaasti tietoa clearingin historiasta, toimintamekanismeista ja menettelytavoista, joten se sopii perus- ja lähdeteokseksi.
  • Alexashenko, Sergey (1992)
  • Lonsky, Jakub (2020)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2020
    This paper studies the origins and consequences of the Russian mafia (vory-v-zakone). I web scraped a unique dataset that contains detailed biographies of more than 5,000 mafia leaders operating in 15 countries of the (former) Soviet Union at some point between 1916 and 2017. Using this data, I first show that the Russian mafia originated in the Gulag – the Soviet system of forced labor camps which housed around 18 million prisoners in the 1920s - 1950s period. Second, I document that the distance to the nearest camp is a strong negative predictor of mafia presence in Russia’s communities in the early post-Soviet period. Finally, using an instrumental variable approach which exploits the spatial distribution of the gulags, I examine the effects of mafia presence on local crime and elite violence in mid-1990s Russia. In particular, I show that the communities with mafia presence experienced a dramatic rise in crime driven by turf wars which erupted among rival clans around 1993 and persisted for much of the 1990. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that mafia presence led to a spike in attacks against businessmen, fellow criminals, as well as law enforcement officers and judges, while politically-motivated violence remained unaffected.