Browsing by Subject "O11"

Sort by: Order: Results:

Now showing items 1-13 of 13
  • Kokkinen, Arto; Obstbaum, Meri; Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2021)
    BoF Economics Review 10/2021
    Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy’s likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse long-term trends. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast framework based on enodogenous growth theory with human and fixed capital. A central result is a pronounced projected decrease in human capital, substantially weighing on the long-run GDP outlook for Finland. To revert these trends substantial policy efforts are needed. Unless the decline in human capital can be prevented by increasing fertility, skilled immigration, education or employment, even reaching a growth rate of one per cent after the 2040s would require significant measures to increase new fixed capital investments with new technology.
  • Babetskii, Ian; Campos, Nauro F. (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2007
    Published in Journal of Comparative Economics, Volume 39, Issue 2, June 2011, Pages 140-158
    Why are socially beneficial reforms not implemented? One simple answer to this question (which has received little attention in the literature) is that this may be caused by generalised uncertainty about the effectiveness of reforms. If agents are unsure about whether a proposed reform will work, it will be less likely to be adopted. Despite the numerous benefits economists assign to structural reforms, the empirical literature has thus far failed to establish a positive and significant effect of reforms on economic performance. We collect data from 43 econometric studies (for more than 300 coefficients on the effects of reform on growth) and show that approximately one third of these coefficients is positive and significant, another third is negative and significant, and the final third is not statistically significant different from zero. In trying to understand this remarkable variation, we find that the measurement of reform and controlling for institutions and initial conditions are main factors in decreasing the probability of reporting a significant and positive effect of reform on growth.
  • Hattendorff, Christian (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2015
    ​The paper investigates the relationship between economic concentration and level of financial development to illuminate the linkage of real economy structure and financial markets. Using data from 81 Russian regions for the period 2005–2011, empirical evidence is offered to show that poor diversification weakens credit. Geographical variables are used as instruments of concentration in accounting for endogeneity. This work supports previous findings at the national level that policymakers seeking to promote economic development should place stronger emphasis on output diversification.
  • Curran, Declan; Funke, Michael; Wang, Jue (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2007
    This paper considers the persistent differences in economic performance across Chinese regions. We introduce a new county- and city-level dataset that spans all of mainland China and provides a detailed view of Chinese regional growth over the period 1997-2005. Non-parametric kernel density estimation is employed to establish the cross-sectional GDP per capita distribution, and the distributional dynamics are investigated using the probability matrix technique and associated stochastic kernel estimator. A set of explanatory variables is then introduced, and several regressions are run to test for conditional ß- convergence and to pinpoint influential factors for economic growth across counties and cities. Keywords: Regional Economic Growth, China JEL-Classification: O11, R11
  • Haaparanta, Pertti; Puhakka, Mikko (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2004
    We introduce endogenous time preference via investment in patience (farsightedness) in an overlapping generations growth model to study development traps.There is no investment in patience, if the economy is very poor, while if it is wealthy enough there is always such investment.We explore the conditions for the existence of the development trap, and study in detail a robust example of an economy with traps.It does not exist, if the economy's total factor productivity is large enough.Our results illustrate the complementarity between physical investment and investment in farsightedness.Our model may also explain why economic growth is affected by initial conditions.In addition we show that increased international capital mobility does not necessarily help economies to escape from development traps. JEL classification: I30, O11, O16 Keywords:development trap, overlapping generations
  • Égert, Balázs; Halpern, László (2005)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2005
    Published in Journal of Banking & Finance 30 (2006), pp. 1359-1374
    This paper analyses the ever-growing literature on equilibrium exchange rates in the new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe in a quantitative manner using meta-regression analysis.The results indicate that the real misalignments reported in the literature are systematically influenced, inter alia, by the underlying theoretical concepts (Balassa-Samuelson effect, Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate) and by the econometric estimation methods.The important implication of these findings is that a systematic analysis is needed in terms of both alternative economic and econometric specifications to assess equilibrium exchange rates. JEL: C15, E31, F31, O11, P17. Keywords: equilibrium exchange rate, Balassa-Samuelson effect, meta-analysis
  • Égert, Balázs (2005)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2005
    Published in Economic Systems vol. 29, no 2 (2005), pp. 123-282
    This paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rates of three Southeastern European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania), of two CIS economies (Russia and Ukraine) and of Turkey.A systematic approach in terms of different time horizons at which the equilibrium exchange rate is assessed is conducted, combined with a careful analysis of country-specific factors.For Russia, a first look is taken at the Dutch Disease phenomenon as a possible driving force behind equilibrium exchange rates.A unified framework including productivity and net foreign assets completed with a set control variables such as openness, public debt and public expenditures is used to compute total real misalignment bands. JEL: E31, O11, P17 Keywords: Balassa-Samuelson, Dutch Disease, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey
  • Wu, Yanrui (2014)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2014
    ​China’s local government debt (LGD) has recently become the focus of economic policy debates. However, information about LGD and its impact on economic growth in the Chinese economy is scarce. This paper attempts to present an empirical investigation of the impact of China’s LGD on economic growth. It is probably the first of its kind to focus on China and thus contributes to the general literature on the relationship between government debt and economic growth. The paper first provides an assessment of LGD in China’s regional economies, using recently released auditing statistics and other available secondary information. It then applies conventional growth analysis methods to examine the impact of LGD on regional growth in China. Various scenario and sensitivity analyses are also conducted, to accommodate the inadequacy and potentially poor quality of debt statistics. Publication keywords: local government debt, regional growth, China
  • Sarajevs, Vadims (1999)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/1999
    Published in Ekonomia vol 4, no 2 (2000), pp. 192-219
    An integrated stochastic macroeconomic model of transition economy at the early stage of reforms with optimising representative risk averse agents is constructed.The equilibrium growth rate of the economy, real asset returns, domestic money demand, and expected inflation rate are determined as functions of the exogenous risks in the economy.The main issue addressed are: domestic money demand, currency substitution ratio, expected rate of inflation, real asset returns, the equilibrium growth rate of the economy as well as government ability to control these variables.Analysis of the model finds that the equilibrium growth rate of the economy is not independent on the monetary and fiscal policies but can be affected by the government through its ability to fix the real cost of capital for the firm, expenditure and monetary policy parameters. JEL Classification Numbers: D80, D90, E41, E44, E52, F41, O11, O23
  • Coricelli, Fabrizio; Égert, Balázs; MacDonald, Ronald (2006)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006
    This paper surveys recent advances in empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM), with special attention to Central and Eastern Europe.In particular, while laying out the functioning of the separate channels in the MTM, it explores possible interrelations between different channels and their impact on prices and the real economy.The empirical findings for Central and Eastern Europe are then briefly compared with results for industrialized countries, especially for the euro area.We highlight potential pitfalls in the literature and assess the relative importance, and potential development, of the different channels, emphasizing the relevant asymmetries between Central and Eastern European countries and the euro area. JEL classification: E31, E51, E58, F31, O11, P20 Keywords: Monetary transmission, transition, Central and Eastern Europe, credit channel, interest rate channel, interest-rate pass-through, exchange rate channel, exchange rate pass-through, asset price channel
  • Dieppe, Alistair; Matsuoka, Hideaki (2022)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2022
    This paper investigates how the sector-specific source or the changing sectoral composition of labor productivity has contributed to β-convergence, using a newly constructed eight-sector database. The main findings are twofold. First, both within and sectoral reallocation have become important drivers of β-convergence in labor productivity. Second, agricultural productivity growth has been a significant contributor to β-convergence, whereas catch-up in other sectors has only contributed a small amount to convergence. The strong growth of the agriculture sector has been the most important driver of aggregate productivity convergence even though agricultural productivity itself in low-income countries is not converging to that in advanced economies.
  • Voskoboynikov, Ilya B. (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2017
    Published online in Review of Income and Wealth
    Intensive growth, structural change and expanding informality has characterized many developing and emerging economies in recent decades. Yet most empirical investigations into the relationship between structural change and productivity growth overlook informality. This paper includes the informal sector in an analysis of the effects of structural changes in the Russian economy on aggre-gate labour productivity growth. Using a newly developed dataset for 34 industries covering the period 1995–2012 and applying three alternative approaches, aggregate labour productivity growth is decomposed into intra-industry and inter-industry contributions. All three approaches show that the overall contribution of structural change is growth-enhancing, significant and attenuating over time. Labour reallocation from the formal sector to the informal sector tends to reduce growth through the extension of informal activities with low productivity levels. Sectoral labour reallocation effects are found to be highly sensitive to the methods applied.
  • Kim, Byung-Yeon; Pirttilä, Jukka (2003)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2003
    Published in Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol.34, No.3 (2006), pp. 446-466 as "Political constraints and economic reform: Empirical evidence from the post-communist transition in the 1990s"
    Using a novel data set from post-communist countries in the 1990s, this paper examines linkages between political constraints, economic reforms and growth.A dynamic panel analysis suggests public support for reform is negatively associated with income inequality and unemployment.Both the ex post and ex ante political constraints of public support affect progress in economic reform, which in turn influences economic growth.The findings highlight that while economic reforms are needed to foster growth, they must be designed so that they do not undermine political support for reform. Keywords: Political constraints, economic reform, transition, growth, dynamic panel models, JEL classification: P26, O11, C33