Browsing by Subject "O53"

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  • Roland, Gerard; Yang, David Y. (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2019
    Beliefs about whether effort pays off govern some of the most fundamental choices individuals make. This paper uses China’s Cultural Revolution to understand how these beliefs can be affected, how they impact behavior, and how they are transmitted across generations. During the Cultural Revolution, China’s college admission system based on entrance exams was suspended for a decade until 1976, effectively depriving an entire generation of young people of the opportunity to access higher education (the “lost generation”). Using data from a nationally representative survey, we compare cohorts who graduated from high school just before and after the college entrance exam was resumed. We find that members of the “lost generation” who missed out on college because they were born just a year or two too early believe that effort pays off to a much lesser degree, even 40 years into their adulthood. However, they invested more in their children’s education, and transmitted less of their changed beliefs to the next generation, suggesting attempts to safeguard their children from sharing their misfortunes.
  • Fromlet, Hubert (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 15/2014
    During and after the Central Committee’s Third Plenum in November 2013, China announced far-reaching reforms in the spheres of marketization and economic deregulation that included financial markets. While the speed of the rollout of China’s planned reforms is still unknown, officials repeatedly reference the great opportunities for guiding China onto a healthier, more sustainable social and economic track. The risks of such ambitious marketization and deregulation plans need to be considered in the context of speed and sequencing of reforms of the financial sector. We currently lack the skills for overcoming the famously low predictability of financial crises. The areas for skill improvement largely relate to market psychology (behavioral finance) and the understanding of history and macrofinancial aggregates. The much-undervalued discipline of behavioral finance has started to come into its own over the past 10 to 15 years, including the awarding of the 2013 Nobel Prize Robert in Economics to Robert Shiller for his efforts at understanding the psychology of financial markets. This year’s Nobel Prize winner, Jean Tirole, also considers behavioral aspects in his work. Sweden has had two serious banking crises in the past 30 years. The first – and most serious – crisis occurred in the early 1990s, while a smaller crisis took place at the end of the last decade. Both were foreseeable. The first crisis emerged as Swedish banking entered uncharted deregulation waters, a situation Chinese reformers will themselves inevitably confront. Swedish research findings with respect to sequencing, speed of reforms and behavioral finance apply nicely to the Chinese discussion. The italicized discussion focuses on what the Swedish deregulation experience means for Chinese policy choices, but most of these observations are generally relevant for policymakers in emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere. Publication keywords: financial deregulation, Asia, Sweden
  • Hasan, Iftekhar; Wachtel, Paul; Zhou, Mingming (2006)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2006
    Published in Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 33, Issue 1, January 2009, pp. 157-170
    There have been profound changes in both political and economic institutions in China over the last twenty years.Moreover, the pace of transition has led to variation across the country in the level of development.In this paper, we use panel data for the Chinese provinces to study the role of legal institutions, financial deepening and political pluralism on growth rates.The most important institutional developments for a transition economy are the emergence and legalization of the market economy, the establishment of secure property rights, the growth of a private sector, the development of financial sector institutions and markets, and the liberalization of political institutions.We develop measures of these phenomena, which are used as explanatory variables in regression models to explain provincial GDP growth rates.Our evidence suggests that the development of financial markets, legal environment, awareness of property rights and political pluralism are associated with stronger growth. JEL Classifications: O16, P14, P16, O53
  • Wu, Yanrui (2014)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2014
    ​China’s local government debt (LGD) has recently become the focus of economic policy debates. However, information about LGD and its impact on economic growth in the Chinese economy is scarce. This paper attempts to present an empirical investigation of the impact of China’s LGD on economic growth. It is probably the first of its kind to focus on China and thus contributes to the general literature on the relationship between government debt and economic growth. The paper first provides an assessment of LGD in China’s regional economies, using recently released auditing statistics and other available secondary information. It then applies conventional growth analysis methods to examine the impact of LGD on regional growth in China. Various scenario and sensitivity analyses are also conducted, to accommodate the inadequacy and potentially poor quality of debt statistics. Publication keywords: local government debt, regional growth, China
  • Fromlet, Hubert (2013)
    BOFIT Online 4/2013
    A review of the economic press and literature reveals that there is little research and analysis on the important issue of the Chinese governmental debt and budget deficits. This is astonishing since the Chinese economy has by now climbed to the second position in global GDP ranking. Thus, China's government debt matters increasingly to the rest of the world as well, both in a corporate and a macroeconomic perspective. Furthermore, not enough is known about the real size of the total Chinese government debt. Insufficient statistical transparency is an important reason for this shortcoming, but this should not serve as an excuse. Increasing efforts are needed to provide China and the rest of the world with better information on the real state of Chinese government debt. In this paper, an attempt is made to explain and discuss the real situation when it comes to the Chinese government debt. The current Greek/Southern European debt misery clearly shows that opaque statistics cannot be hidden away forever without sooner or later puzzling and/or frightening the financial markets. On the other hand, China cannot be analyzed completely with Western eyes. The sooner Chinese decision-makers decide on greater transparency in the government debt situation, and decisive steps towards more efficient fiscal policy are taken, the better the consequences for China itself and the global economy. The alternative - continuous opaqueness and a possible future fiscal explosion - could certainly do a lot of harm to China, but also to the global economy. There is no reason to underestimate this medium and long-term risk. The short-term perspective looks safer. There should be room for a greater exchange of views and co-operation between EU and China, too. The EU's own bad experience from the past few years could be a realistic starting point. JEL Classifications: D02, D82, H70, H74, O53, P35
  • Kanbur, Ravi; Wang, Yue; Zhang, Xiaobo (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2017
    China’s high income and wealth inequality has long attracted the interest of policymakers and re-searchers, yet surprisingly little has been done since 2010 on inequality trends. Given China’s evolving economic structure and the government’s adoption of new policy tools in recent years, we revisit the latest data on Chinese inequality and assess the impacts of economic and policy changes on income distribution. After a quarter century of rapid, sustained increase, we see Chinese inequality plateauing and even diminishing. To verify this finding, we draw upon a range of data sources and measures of inequality. We examine inequality trends through decomposition by income source and population subgroups, and consider possible explanations such as policy shifts and structural trans-formation of the Chinese economy. The findings suggest that the narrative on Chinese inequality today should focus on clarifying the factors driving this apparent inequality turnaround.
  • Carpenter, Jennifer N.; Lu, Fangzhou; Whitelaw, Robert F. (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2018
    This paper shows that, counter to common perception, stock prices in China are strongly linked to firm fundamentals. Since the reforms of the early 2000s, stock prices are as informative about future profits as they are in the US. Although the market is segmented from international equity markets, Chinese investors price individual stock characteristics like other global investors: they pay up for size, growth, liquidity, and long shots, while they discount for systematic risk. Price informativeness is significantly correlated with corporate investment e ciency. For international investors, China's stock market offers high average returns and low correlation with other equity markets.
  • Kauko, Karlo (2020)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2020
    Published in Asian Economic Papers 2021 ; 20 ; 3.
    Chinese banks likely have more non-performing loans (NPLs) than officially reported. As hidden NPLs earn no interest income, loan quality problems may erode the gross interest income of banks. Using stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate the interest income of a hypothetical profit-maximising Chinese bank with no credit quality problems. Taking the deviation of actual interest income from the calculated efficient income, we then attempt to reveal the amount of hidden NPLs in Chinese banks. Our results uncover a substantial weakening in the quality of Chinese bank loan portfolios in 2016. Big banks are found to have the largest reservoirs of hidden NPLs. Dependence on interbank funding also seems to be a determinant in the size of hidden NPL portfolios.
  • Chen, Yu-Fu; Funke, Michael; Mehrotra, Aaron (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2011
    Published in Pacific Economic Review, Volume 22, Issue 3, August 2017: 383–409
    This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on consumption by disentangling house price effects on consumption for mainland China. In a stochastic modelling framework, the riskiness, rate of increase and persistence of house price movements have different implications for the consumption/housing ratio. We exploit the geographical variation in property prices by using a quarterly city-level panel dataset for the pe-riod 1998Q1 2009Q4 and rely on a panel error correction model. Overall, the results suggest a significant long run impact of property prices on consumption. They also broadly confirm the predictions from the theo-retical model. Keywords: Consumption, house prices, China, panel data JEL-Classification: E21, R31, C23, O53.