Browsing by Author "Pautola, Niina"

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  • Korhonen, Iikka; Pautola, Niina (1997)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 5/1997
    Vuonna 1996 Viron ja Liettuan kansantaloudet kasvoivat jo toista vuotta peräkkäin suhteellisen nopeasti ja Latviassa kasvu lähti uudelleen käyntiin vuoden 1995 pankkikriisin aiheuttaman taantuman jälkeen.Vuoden lopulla Latviassa oli Baltian maiden korkein työttömyys. Pankkisektorilla kehitys jatkui edellisvuoden kaltaisena.Pankkien lukumäärä aleni.Virossa tämä tapahtui lähinnä fuusioiden kautta kun taas Latviassa ja Liettuassa vuoden 1995 pankkikriisit johtivat pankkien lukumäärän supistumiseen.Erityisesti Latviassa ja Liettuassa viranomaiset ovat pyrkineet tehostamaan pankkien valvontaa.Raharnarkkinoilla havaittiin viime vuonna selkeitä muutoksia edelliseen vuoteen verrattuna.Pankkiluottojen korot laskivat kaikissa Baltian maissa.Laskuun vaikuttivat mm. inflaation aleneminen ja pankkisektorin kasvaneen kokemuksen mukanaan tuoma suurempi valmius myöntää luottoja. Tuottajahinnat nousivat kaikissa Baltian maissa hitaammin kuin kuluttajahinnat, mikä saattaa viitata kuluttajahintojen edelleen hidastumiseen lähitulevaisuudessa.Keskipalkat ovat läntisiin teollisuusmaihin verrattuna edelleen alhaisia.Lisäksi alueelliset erot ovat suuria. Kaikissa Baltian maissa ulkomaankauppa sekä vaihtotase kokonaisuudessaan olivat alijäämäisiä.Ulkomaankaupan rakenteessa ei tapahtunut merkittäviä muutoksia vuoteen 1995 verrattuna. Virossa ja Liettuassa yksityistäminen on edennyt nopeammin kuin Latviassa ja jäljellä ovat enää ns. infrastruktuuriyritykset. Yksityistämisen loppusuoralla merkittäväksi kysymykseksi on noussut maaomaisuuden yksityistäminen.Valtiontalouden hoidossa Baltian maiden yhteisenä ongelmana on edelleen tehottomuus.Erityisesti verojenkeruu on ollut tehotonta ja budjettipolitiikan koordinointi paikallistason ja valtion välillä on ollut puutteellista. Ulkopolitiikan osalta viime vuoden merkittävimpiä tavoitteita olivat keskinäisen yhteistyön parantaminen, edistyminen WTO-jäsenyysneuvotteluissa sekä entistä tiiviimpi integroituminen Euroopan Unioniin.Lisäksi erityistä huomiota ovat saaneet Naton itälaajentumiseen liittyvät kysymykset sekä suhteet Venäjään. Merkittävimpiä sisäpoliittisia tapahtumia olivat Viron ja Latvian presidentinvaalit, Viron hallituksen hajoaminen sekä Liettuan presidentinvaalit.
  • Pautola, Niina (1996)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1996
    Vuonna 1996 kokonaistuotannon on ennustettu kasvavan kaikissa Baltian maissa.Pankkisektorilla pankkien lukumäärä on alentunut ja pankkien valvonta tehostunut.Rahamarkkinoilla pankkiluottojen korot ovat laskeneet inflaation vaimenemisen ja kokemuksen kasvun myötä.Tuottajahinnat ovat nousseet hitaammin kuin kuluttajahinnat, mikä viittaa kuluttajahintainflaation edelleen hidastumiseen lähitulevaisuudessa.Sekä kauppa- että vaihtotase ovat olleet alijäämäisiä kaikissa Baltian maissa.Yksityistämisprosessin loppusuoralla merkittäväksi kysymykseksi on noussut maaomaisuuden yksityistäminen kun taas valtiontalouden hoidossa yhteisenä ongelmana on ollut tehottomuus.Ulkopolitiikan osalta Baltian maille tärkeintä on kuluvan vuoden aikana ollut keskinäisen yhteistyön ja Venäjä-suhteiden parantaminen sekä integroituminen Euroopan Unioniin. Avainsanat: Baltia, transitio, tuotanto, inflaatio, yksityistäminen, pankit
  • Pautola, Niina (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 3/1998
    Kokonaistuotanto kasvoi viime vuonna nopeasti kaikissa Baltian maissa.Virossa tuotannon kasvu oli niin nopeaa, että useat tarkkailijat huolestuivat maan talouden ylikuumenemisesta. Inflaatio laski kaikissa maissa edellisestä vuodesta, mutta Virossa kuluttajahintojen nousu kiihtyi vuoden loppua kohden. Ulkomaankauppa oli edelleen selvästi alijäämäistä kaikissa Baltian maissa.Tämä on merkinnyt myös suuria vaihtotaseiden alijäämiä. Kaikissa Baltian maissa pankkien luotonanto kasvoi viime vuonna selvästi, mutta nopeinta kasvu oli Virossa, jossa keskuspankki kiristi pankkeja koskevia määräyksiä loppuvuodesta hillitäkseen lainanantoa.Viime vuonna yksityistämisen päähuomio keskittyi suuriin yrityksiin. Asiasanat: Viro, Latvia, Liettua, talouskehitys, inflaatio, ulkomaankauppa
  • Pautola, Niina (1995)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 9/1995
    The subject of this article is East-West integration.Part two examines the issue of integration between East and West by introducing the club theory as applied to international relations.The general assumption of the club theory is that the costs and benefits are a function of the size of the club and that the club size will be expanded till the marginal costs equal the marginal benefits.Part three examines the concrete benefits and costs of EU enlargement.There are economic and political gains, budgetary costs, voting and migration effects involved in the integration between East and West.Finally, part four discusses visions and realism of further integration and suggestions for interim policies while achieving an integrated Europe.
  • Pautola, Niina (1997)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 2/1997
    In market economies we can clearly make a distinction between the area of public finance and the area of private finance.In the centrally planned economies the distinction between private and public finance did not actually exist, because all economic activities as well as all finance were public.Given that, one can argue that transition from a centrally-planned to a market economy includes a radical fiscal restructuring. In principle, fiscal policy in transition economies was aimed at promoting economic recovery and creating favourable conditions for economic operators while maintaining reasonable social security. The fiscal stability was seen as an important signal of the government's commitment to economic stabilization.This, in turn, would increase public confidence in government.After the brake-up of the Soviet Union, most of the successor states experienced large fiscal deficits.Compared to other countries of the FSU, the Baltic states were able to maintain rather moderate deficits.One explanation for this can be that the initial fiscal position in all three Baltic states was better than in Russia and the transition economies in central Europe, and partly because of the early budget reforms in 1990-91.The Baltic countries practised tight fiscal policies right from the start of their independence.Another explanation for the Baltics' better success in maintaining fiscal stability can be explained by the fact that during the old Soviet system, the Baltic countries, especially Latvia and Lithuania, contributed large net transfers to the Soviet Union's budget.Once the Soviet Union collapsed, these transfers were abolished and the Baltic countries's financial balances improved significantly.The initial surplus in the fiscal accounts and better revenue performance made it easier to implement strict cash rationing as a means for expenditure control.Tight cas rationing has been an effective way to cut spending.Moreover, an additional factor explaining the success in expenditure policies has been the development of social security benefits.The shares of these transfers have remained fairly stable in all three Baltic states. Finally, it seems that Baltic governments have also been quite successful in reducing subsidies to very low levels.Despite the success, all three Baltic states have had trouble collecting budget revenues.Tax administration as well as control and payment mechanisms are still underdeveloped.In addition, due to a fact that many new private firms were not captured in the tax net, both taxes on wages and salaries, and VAT and other indirect taxes, may not have been fully collected from them.Budget revenues have further been negatively affected due to increase in tax arrears and falling profitability in state enterprises. Although the Baltic the Baltic countries managed to keep their fiscal deficits at quite low levels, deficits still emerged and therefore financing for these deficits had to be found.In respect of domestic financing, the government deficit has been mainly financed in the form of government bonds.The level of foreign financing, however, has been low due to a limited access to foreign capital markets. The future challange for economic policy in the Baltic countries is to ensure the availability of resources necessary to maintain growth, In this respect, fiscal policy should encourage savings, because they form the base for financing the high levels of investment required for sustained economic growth.One of the future challanges in all Baltic countries is the collecting of timely accurate, and accessible fiscal data that are consistent with the international standard of government finance statistics methodology.Also, we cannot ignore that social safety nets are under severe strain as a result of weak financial and administrative capacity.Further efforcts will focus also on tax policy; on improving the effectiveness of taxes by further broad
  • Pautola, Niina (1996)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 3/1996
    Up to the end of 1991, more than 90 % of Baltic trade was conducted with other parts of the Soviet Union, where trade was organized not on the basis of voluntary exchange but strictly guided by Moscow.The subsequent collapse of central planning caused widespread disruption in trade and financial links. Nevertheless, the Baltic countries, to a certain extent, retained their strong dependence on trade with Russia and other states of the former Soviet Union, and as a result saw their terms of trade decrease by 10-15 % of GDP.Further, they experienced high inflation, dramatic output declines, shortages of goods and raw materials, and dysfunctional payment and monetary arrangements.To correct this situation and avoid prolonged economic difficulties, Baltic trade links with the West were restored, as well as economic relations among the Baltic nations themselves. From the trade policy point of view, Estonia followed the most liberal course by eliminating trade restrictions altogether. Latvia and Lithuania have favoured more protectionist policies. Estonia and Latvia have consistently strived to boost their trade with the West, while Lithuania still maintains stronger trade relations with Russia. Despite the fact that the Baltic countries have a free trade agreement and numerous actions have been taken to promote intra-Baltic trade links, current problems at macro- and microeconomic level as well as trade policy differences constitute major obstacles to trade creation and greater cooperation among the Baltic states.Further, the smallness of the Baltic market and the general sameness of tradeable products tend to limit the possibilities for intraregional trade.As a consequence, growth in intraregional trade has remained quite modest. Keywords: foreign trade, integration, Baltic countries
  • Pautola, Niina (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1998
    The theoretical literature suggests four criteria for judging whether regions should form a currency area: mobility of labour and capital, flexibility of prices and wages, openness to trade and diversity of production.Regions that have relatively closed economies, narrow product ranges, strong price and wage rigidities, and low external mobility of labour and capital should not join monetary union, but should instead retain exchange-rate flexibility. According to Maastricht Treaty, countries wishing to join EMU must fulfil the convergence criteria on interest rate levels, exchange rates, price stability and public debt.Several studies indicate that neither current EU-members nor the Central and Eastern European countries fully satisfy Mundell's criteria for optimal currency area (OCA) or EMU convergence criteria.Therefore, a European monetary union might run more smoothly if limited to a subset of EU members. European Union is less of an optimal currency area than, for example, the US, due to lower factor mobility, more variable real exchange rates and slower response to aggregate shocks.Regarding to convergence criteria, it seems that the majoriy of the EU-countries satisfy the criteria to price stability whereas more efforts are needed where public debt is concerned.In respect of Central and Eastern European countries, the successful conclusion of systematic transformation and market oriented structural reforms is essential before participation in EMU.At present, countries should concentrate on maintaining their commitment to stabilization and on development further modern monetary and fiscal policies. Furthermore, they must complete financial sector reform, and liberalize capital movements.In addition, their central banks have to become fully independent and have price stability as primary objective.Actions should be taken to tackle factors that hinder the efficiency of monetary policy e.g. the volatility of money demand, the poor degree of privatization and competition in the banking sector, the non-existence of a enforcable bankruptcy law, the lack of development of money and securities markets and the problem "bad loans" in the banking sector. Endogineity of OCA criteria argues that suitability of European countries, both Western and Eastern, for EMU cannot be judged on the basis of historical data since the structure of these economies is likely to change in EMU.The more countries integrate with each other, the more highly correlated will be their business cycles. Therefore, if a country, failing the OCA criteria now, goes ahead and joins EMU anyway, its trade linkages and income correlation with other EMU members are likely to rise as a consequence of entry into EMU. Keywords: EMU, OCA, integration, transition, Central and Eastern Europe, enlargement
  • Pautola, Niina (1996)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 4/1996
    In recent years, the relationships of the three Baltic states with the European Union have intensified through a variety of agreements aimed at further developing economic and political relations, and ultimately, integration with the European Union.The most important agreements to date have been the Agreements on Trade and Commercial and Economic Cooperation, the Free Trade Agreement, and more recently, Association Agreements (also known as Europe Agreements). Through these, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have asserted their intentions to become fully integrated with Europe. Compared to current EU members, however, the economic, political and social structures of the Baltics are still in transition.To help them as well as other "Central and Eastern European Countries" or "CEECs" in their preparation for membership, the EU has issued a White Paper on approximation of laws, established the Phare expertise-assistance programme, and given at least some preliminary indications as to the conditions for entry. The Baltics are presently focused on the outcome of the EU's Intergovernmental Conference.By 1998, the IGC must decide on the scope of eastern enlargement and, in particular, designate when and under what terms the Baltics are to be admitted to the EU. The European Union's unwillingness to specify conditions and dates for possible membership has become a matter of contention as the Baltic states have continuously insisted on exact dates for their admission.Further, the EU still prefers to deal with the Baltics as a single entity, while the Baltics themselves wish to be treated individually on their own merits.Quite evidently the matter will continue to hang in the air until the EU has reviewed the consequences of eastern enlargement and taken decisions on special admission criteria. Keywords: Baltic countries, enlargement, EU, integration
  • Pautola, Niina (1995)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1995
  • Mishalchenko, Jury V.; Pautola, Niina (1995)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 9/1995
    The article consists of three parts.Part one focuses on some of the main economic and legal questions involving the Russian tax system in general.The basic principles and legal framework of the tax system are analyzed.Part two concentrates on the taxation of banks in more detail.The main types of taxes levied on banks are discussed.Finally, part three contains some suggestions for improving the efficiency of the Russian tax system in the future.
  • Pautola, Niina (1997)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1997
    Since the Copenhagen and Essen Summits in June 1993 and December 1994, there has been a consensus on eastern enlargement.Central and Eastern European countries have been shown the green light in terms of accession.However, questions of when and how remain open for discussion.The main elements of the accession strategy appear in the Europe Agreements on economic cooperation, the White Paper on approximation of laws, the Phare programme of economic aid to the associated countries and structured dialogue. At the moment, the aspirant members are not ready to take on the complex set of rules ranging from minimum social and environmental standards in the single market to the application of competition law. In respect to transition development, markets already finction reasonably well in most CEECs.However, in several areas of economic activity, effective and transparent corporate governance and appropriate standards for conducting business still have a long way to go.This applies, in particular, to enterprise restructuring, strengthening of financial institutions, commercialisation of infrastructure and environmental protection. Furthermore, many changes in legal structures are still required. Regrading to macroeconomic stabilisation, progress towards stability continues, growth remains relatively strong and inflation has declined.Nevertheless, increasing trade deficits, real exchange rate appreciation and signs of a deterioration in international competitiveness may lower growth.In addition, expectations concerning wage increases, further liberalisation of administered prices, money supply growth caused by high interest rates, and growth of credits to enterprises are to fuell inflation in the future. From the EU's point of view, the official framework for admission to the EU involves, among others, the Commission preparing an opinion (avis) on the applicant's ability to acceppt the body of EU law (aquis communautaire).Furthermore, the Commission must prepare a report on the EU's financial framework covering the early years of the next century and likely effects of enlargement.Finally, before enlargement can take place, the Intergovernmental Conference must succeed in streamlining EU decision-making and institutions, extending EU responsibility for joint foreign and defence policies and improving cooperation in home affairs matters. The EU has grown to fifteen members through four enlargements. Monetary integration is currently scheduled for 1999 and given the amount of effort made, there seems no way turning back.Monetary union is considered a logical extension of the single market and therefore, enlargement cannot be pursued at the expense of monetary union.Only after monetary union has started functioning, concrete actions can be taken in terms of enlargement. Keywords: Integration, Central and Eastern Europe, the Europe Agreements, The European Union, the European Monetary Union, eastern enlargement.
  • Pautola, Niina (1996)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 4/1996
    While the European Union and Russia are actively working to strengthen their relations, the challenge of effective cooperation can only be called problematic given the pressures faced by an expanding EU and the dynamics of present-day Russia.Nevertheless, the arguments for improving relations for both parties are overwhelming as closer ties ultimately promote the economic prosperity and political stability of the entire region. EU-Russian cooperation is presently based on the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA).The EU and Russia have also agreed to start discussions on creation of a free trade area. While the framework of cooperation is already in place, implementation of the PCA will demand greater resources than current capacity allows.Russia will bear the heaviest burden as it will have to develop functions longestablished in the EU.To ease this transition, the EU provides technical assistance to Russia through its Tacis programme and similar programmes.These constitute a good-faith commitment on the part of the EU to a functioning market economy, political democracy as well as a working system of education and social welfare in Russia. Both parties acknowledge the other's importance as a trading partner currently, trade mainly consits of oil, natural gas and refined metals exported by Russia and machinery and vechiles exported by the EU.The asymmetry of this relationship complicates competition and trade policy.Russia's competitive weaknesses in certain sectors make it very tempting to revert to protectionist pressures which will hinder liberalization of trade and potentially jeopardize the implementation of the PCA. Although critics have called attention to the excessive optimism and impracticalities of the PCA and Tacis, they nevertheless concede that their spirit embodies a willingness by both parties to promote better relations.And despite obvious areas of contention between the EU and Russia (especially in trade policies), there has been a consistent willingness to discuss positions and seek mutually acceptable solutions.Given the general complexity of EU-Russia relations, this willingness to sort things out will be fundamental to all future progress. Keywords: Russia, EU, integration, foreign trade, partnership and cooperation agreement