Browsing by Subject "Puola"

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  • Matikainen, Petri (1992)
  • Stanisławska, Ewa; Paloviita, Maritta; Łyziak, Tomasz (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2019
    Published in Economics Letters 2021 ; 206 ; September "Consumer inflation views : micro-level inconsistencies and macro-level measures"
    Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose qualitative and quantitative views on expected increase of prices do not match each other. Then we consider the impact of inconsistent survey responses on balance statistics and mean values of quantitative inflation expectations. We also analyze expectations’ formation estimating the sticky-information models. The results, based on Finnish and Polish data, suggest that even if the fraction of inconsistent survey responses is non-negligible, it matters neither for the aggregated figures of inflation views, nor for understanding of the formation of inflation expectations by consumers. We conclude that micro-level inconsistencies do not reduce the reliability of the current EC Consumer Survey dataset. Our results also indicate that inconsistent responses are not important drivers of the inflation overestimation bias displayed in the data.
  • Jokipii, Terhi; Lucey, Brian (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2006
    Published in Economic Systems, 31,1, 2007: 71-96
    Making use of ten years of daily data, this paper examines whether banking sector co-movements between the three largest Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) can be attributed to contagion or to interdependence. Our tests based on simple unadjusted correlation analysis uncover evidence of contagion between all pairs of countries. Adjusting for market volatility during turmoil, however, produces different results. We then find contagion from the Czech Republic to Hungary during this time, but all other cross-market co-movements are rather attributable rather to strong cross-market linkages. In addition, we construct a set of dummy variables to try to capture the impact of macroeconomic news on these markets. Controlling for own-country fundamentals, we discover that the correlations diminish between the Czech Republic and Poland, but that coefficients for all pairs remain substantial and significant. Finally, we address the problem of simultaneous equations, omitted variables and heteroskedasticity, and adjust our data accordingly. We confirm our previous findings. Our tests provide evidence in favour of parameter instability, again signifying the existence of contagion arising from problems in the Czech Republic affecting Hungary during much of 1996.
  • Bonin, John; Wachtel, Paul (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2004
    Published in Systemic Financial Crises: Resolving Large Bank Insolvencies, D. Evanoff, G. Kaufman, eds., World Publishing, 2005
    We examine the efforts of transition economies to deal with financial fragility and resolve banking cries We characterize the birthing process of banking in transition and the three essential features of banking crises in transition economies: (i) bad loans and the relationship to state owned industries, (ii) development of institutional infrastructure and (iii) credible commitments to resolution and privatization.We then discuss the experiences of seven important transition countries in order to identify the salient features of their efforts to resolve banking crises.
  • Kim, Byung-Yeon (2001)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2001
    Using cointegration and error-correction models, this paper analyses the relative impacts of the monetary, labour and foreign sectors on Polish inflation from 1990 to 1999.Following the development of a theoretical framework, we use a structural system approach in which cointegration relationships are used to derive deviations from steady-state levels.The deviations are interpreted as excess demand pressure on inflation in a given sector and subsequently incorporated in order to determine the short-run dynamics of Polish inflation.The results suggest that the labour and external sectors dominated the determination of Polish inflation during the above period, but their effects have been opposite since 1994.The appreciation of the domestic currency contributed to reducing inflation, while excessive wage increases prevented inflation from decreasing to a lower level.The monetary sector appears not to have exerted influence on inflation, suggesting monetary policy has been passive.
  • Égert, Balázs; Lommatzsch, Kirsten (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2004
    This paper sets out to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Po-land, Slovakia and Slovenia.A theoretical model is developed that provides an explanation for the ap-preciation of the real exchange rate based on tradable prices in the acceding countries.Our model can be considered as a competing but also completing framework to the traditional Balassa-Samuelson model.With this as a background, alternative cointegration methods are applied to time series (Engle-Granger, DOLS, ARDL and Johansen) and to three small-size panels (pooled and fixed effect OLS, DOLS, PMGE and MGE), which leaves us with around 5,000 estimated regressions.This enables us to examine the uncertainty surrounding estimates of equilibrium real exchange rates and the size of the underlying real misalignments. Keywords: Real exchange rate, equilibrium exchange rate, tradable prices, transition, cointegration JEL: F31
  • Mehrotra, Aaron; Slacik, Tomás (2009)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2009
    We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model averaging. We find that money provides information about price developments over a horizon of ten quarters ahead, albeit the estimates are in most cases rather imprecise. Moreover, the effect of excessive monetary growth on inflation is mixed: It is positive for Poland and Slovakia, but negative for the Czech Republic and Hungary. Nevertheless, these results suggest that money does provide information about future inflation and that a McCallum rule could potentially be used in the future as an additional indicator of the monetary policy stance once the precision of the estimation improves with more data available.
  • Kalmi, Panu (1995)
  • Charemza, Wojciech W.; Makarova, Svetlana (2005)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2005
    The paper proposes a new indicator of expected real effects of a policy aimed at controlling inflation.The indicator, called real effect of inflation targeting (REIT), involves the comparison of expected and output-neutral inflation.It is shown that it can be derived from a simple two-dimensional vector autoregressive model of inflation and output gap.The microdynamics of such model are explained in terms of the foundations of Taylor-type staggered wage contracts.It is assumed that the monetary authority has some discretion regarding the timing of monetary actions.Here REIT can be used to set the optimal times for such actions, if the control of output is regarded as a secondary policy target.A simulation experiment illustrates the rationale of such a device for timing monetary measures.The REIT has been used by the Polish Monetary Policy Council since 2001 in it's inflation targeting and is thought to have contributed to a substantial decline in Polish inflation in 2003 and to an increase in output growth in 2004.A similar indicator computed for Russia as a means of monitoring monetary policy rather than as an active tool confirms that active expansionary policy in 2002 and 2003 might have contributed to Russian economic growth in 2004 and 2005, whereas similar policy measures for 2004 are likely to prove ineffective.
  • Habib, Maurizio Michael (2002)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2002
    This paper studies the impact of external factors on daily exchange rates and short-term interest rates in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland during the period August 1997 - May 2001.Ind that neither exchange rates nor interest rates are influenced by short-term German interest rates.Nevertheless, 1 show that shocks to emerging-market risk premia had a significant impact on exchange rates in all three Central and Eastern European countries and on interest rates in the Czech Republic.In addition, studying the second moment of the variables, 1 demonstrate that Czech and Polish exchange rates were affected by 'volatility contagion' coming from emerging markets. 1 find also some partial support for the 'volatility contagion' hypothesis on Czech interest rates.These findings shed some doubts on the alleged theoretical ability of a floating exchange rate - such as in the Czech Republic - to absorb external shocks and insulate a country's domestic monetary policy completely.However, the spill-over effect on Czech interest rates might be explained by the 'managed' nature of the exchange rate regime, thereby re-establishing some credibility of the theory. Key words: exchange rates, short-term interest rates, volatility, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland
  • Jokipii, Terhi (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2006
    This paper studies the extent to which market crashes are predictable for a set of six countries, focusing in particular on possible differences between transition economies (The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and mature markets (UK, US and EU). We estimate a set of individual country and pooled specifications to find that market crashes, in the broader sense, are predictable for all countries analysed.We additionally investigate the role that investor heterogeneity, proxied by trading volume, plays in this predictability and find some varying results between countries.For the Central and Eastern European Countries (CE3), an increase in trading volume relative to trend appears to have great predictive power, a result that is supportive of the theory of investor heterogeneity outlined in the relevant background studies. For the more mature markets (G5), on the other hand, market crashes appear more likely to follow a period of increased stock prices and returns, a result fitting a number of traditional theories, in particular the stochastic bubble model.Further analysis, allowing for time-varying coefficients, confirms the volume-crash relationship for the CE3 and provides preliminary evidence that macro news releases may additionally contribute to the predictability of market crashes. Keywords: aggregate market returns, skewness, trading volume, market crash JEL classification numbers: C14, G12, G15
  • Bask, Mikael; Fidrmuc, Jarko (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2006
    Published in Open Economies Review, Volume 20, Issue 5, November 2009, Pages 589-605
    We present a model of exchange rates, which incorporates the monetary approach and technical trading, and we present the reduced form based on the minimal state variable solution, where both fundamentals and backward-looking term determine the spot exchange rates.Finally, we estimate the impact of the monetary fundamentals for a panel of Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) in the second half of the 1990s as well as the complete model of exchange rate determination for daily data over the more recent free-floating period.Key words: foreign exchange market, fundamental analysis, panel cointegration, technical analysis JEL classification numbers: C23, F31, F36
  • Alexashenko, Sergey (1992)
  • Kalmi, Panu (1995)
  • Égert, Balázs (2002)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2002
    Published in Economics of Transition vol 10, no 2 (2002), pp. 273-309
    This paper studies the Balassa-Samuelson effect in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.Time series and panel co-integration techniques are used to show that the BS effect works reasonably well in these transition economies during the period 1991:Ql to 2001:Q2.However, productivity growth does not fully translate into price increases due to the structure of CPI indexes.We thus argue that productivity growth will not hinder the ability of the five EU accession candidates to meet the Maastricht criterion on inflation in the medium term.Moreover, the observed appreciation of the CPI-deflated real exchange rate is found to be systematically higher compared to the real appreciation justified by the Balassa-Samuelson effect, particularly in the cases of the Czech Republic and Slovakia.This may be partly explained by the trend appreciation of the tradable-goodsprice-based real exchange rate, increases in non-tradable sector prices due to price liberalisation and demand-side pressures, and the evolution of the nominal exchange rate due to the exchange rate regime and magnitude of capital inflows.
  • Kivilahti, Terhi; Svanborg, Jyri; Tekoniemi, Merja (1992)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/1992
    Itä-Euroopan entiset keskusjohtoiset suunnitelmatalousmaat ovat siirtymässä kohti markkinataloutta ja pyrkivät samalla integroitumaan aikaisempaa huomattavasti laajemmin maailmantalouteen. Siirtymää haittaavat monet suunnitelmatalouksien erityispiirteet, jotka näkyivät etenkin ulkomaankaupan eristämisenä kotimaantaloudesta, rahan suppeana merkityksenä, valuutan vaihtokelpoisuuden puutteena sekä epärationaalisena hintajärjestelmänä. Epäkohdat ovat nousseet esiin keskinäisen avun järjestön SEVin lakattua toimimasta vuoden 1991 alkupuolella, mikä on johtanut entisten jäsenmaiden kaupan ja kokonaistuotannon voimakkaaseen supistumiseen. Kaupan elvyttämiseksi on suunniteltu Euroopan jälleenrakennuskauden maksu-unionin kaltaisia järjestelyjä. Valuutan vaihdettavuus ei ole päämäärä sinänsä, vaan nimenomaan sen talouteen tuoma positiivinen vaikutus. Tämä ilmenee parhaimmillaan kiristyneen kilpailun mukanaan tuomana tehokkuutena, hintasuhteiden korjaantumisena sekä ulkomaisten investointien, osaamisen ja teknologian maahantuontina. Valuutalla voi olla monen laajuista vaihdettavuutta: hyödykevaihdettavuutta, sisäistä tai ulkoista vaihdettavuutta sekä vaihdettavuutta ulkomaisten taloussuhteiden eri toimien osalta. Radikaalin siirtymäpolitiikan tavoitteena on rahatalouden tasapainottaminen, kun taas maltillisempi, asteittainen ohjelma korostaa rakenteellisia uudistuksia. Suuri osa entisen Neuvostoliiton ja mahdollisesti myös itäisen Keski-Euroopan maiden teollisuuslaitoksista saattaa olla ns. arvonvähentäjiä, eli ne ovat tappiollisia kaikilla valuuttakursseilla. Tällä tarkoitetaan sitä, että yrityksen tuottaman hyödykkeen bruttoarvo maailmanmarkkinahinnoissa on materiaalikustannuksia pienempi. Puola, Unkari ja Tsekkoslovakia ottivat sisäisesti vaihdettavat valuutat käyttöön vasta 1990-luvulla. Radikaali uudistusohjelma teki Puolan kaupan ja palveluiden ulkomaanmaksuista vaihdettavia. Neuvostoliiton hajoaminen itsenäisiksi tasavalloiksi on nostanut esiin kysymyksen kunkin tasavallan mahdollisesta kansallisesta valuutasta ja niiden vaihdettavuudesta. Ruplan käytöstä on alustavasti sovittu joidenkin tasavaltojen välisenä yhteisenä rahana, mutta omien valuuttojen käyttöä ei ole pois suljettu. Ruplan vaihdettavuudesta on esitetty monenlaisia suunnitelmia, mutta laajaa vaihdettavuutta tuskin voidaan taloudellisin perustein nopeasti toteuttaa.
  • Wachtel, Paul; Korhonen, Iikka (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2004
    The transition economies were remarkably successful in curbing the inflation that took place after the initial transition and shocks and, more recently, most of the countries have brought inflation down to the levels found in major developed countries.In this paper we review the experiences and show how fiscal discipline, monetary policy and exchange rate policy contributed to the outcome.In addition, we note that the influence of EU accession on institutions and policy may have played an important role.The paper also surveys the literature on the quality of the inflation data, the extent to which necessary relative price adjustments have occurred and the size of the Balassa-Samuelson effect.Case studies of disinflation in four countries are presented: Poland, Romania, Estonia and Russia.
  • Kalmi, Panu (1997)
    This thesis discusses employee-owned enterprises (EOEs) in Poland and Russia, asking: 1.What are the benefits of and shortcomings of employee ownership in transition economies? 2.Will employee ownership be a permanent arrangement? Employee ownership literature and special aspects of EOEs in transition economies are reviewed.According to the literature survey, when shares are freely tradable, most problems associated with Yugoslavian-type enterprises should vanish.The remaining problems are employee risk-aversion as owners, decision-making problems arising from diverse preferences, and greater costs in obtaining external financing.In transition processes the advantages of insider privatization are clarification of property rights, speed and lowered costs, and employee participation in the privatization process.A major obstacle is insufficient funds for financing investment and restructuring. Insider privatization was used in Poland and Russia as a privatization method due to political necessity.Insiders inherited a strong position - without their cooperation privatization could not have been carried out.In practice, firm success seems to depend more on the environment the firm is facing than particular ownership structures.The low level of investment may follow from the conditions of high uncertainty and lack of capital, rather than from particular ownership effects.On the other hand, there is evidence that EOEs respond to market signals in a normal way, eg by increasing investment in conditions of improved profitability and reducing work force in recession.A common feature for Polish and Russian insider-owned enterprises is that control over the enterprise is concentrated to the hands of managers.This may have devastating effects on EOEs when managers are inclined to asset stripping and rent seeking instead of increasing market value. In examining the contention that insider privatization could be used as a temporary path to other property structures, the paper discusses the implications of share trade.Applying a take-over model adapted from Grossman and Hart (1980) and Shleifer and Vishny (1986), the writer suggests that the private benefits insiders enjoy may hinder ownership change.This is especially the case when the private benefits of control are large for managers large compared to the potential security benefits.On the other hand, concentration of shares to managers and large investors may increase the probability of ownership change.Indeed, this appears to be consistent with what is actually happening.Hard budget constraints and further development in bankruptcy institutions are recommended as ways to promote selection towards more efficient ownership structures.
  • Kauppila, Tarja (2002)
    BOFIT Online 2002/2
  • Komulainen, Tuomas (2003)
    BOFIT Online 2003/4