Teknologiset innovaatiot ovat nopeasti muuttaneet kuluttajien tapoja maksaa viime vuosien aikana. Lähimaksut, verkko-ostokset ja kustannusten jakaminen reaaliaikaisilla siirroilla omasta kännykästä ovat monille arkipäivää.

According to the Bank of Finland’s new forecast, the COVID crisis will not cause a substantial long-term drop in the Finland’s GDP. This is clearly good news. Generally, when the economy returns to growth following a deep economic crisis, output does not return to the pre-crisis trend, but to a lower trajectory. This time we expect the outcome will be better. In this respect, the extensive, strong economic policy response to the crisis can be considered a success. The public finances will, however, be left with a long-term scar.

The Finnish economy is still going through a period of transition in which it has to adjust to two large structural realignments. One of these concerns the ageing population. The other comprises the shocks to the economy suffered since 2007, from which we have not yet fully recovered.

The euro area's growth rate is set to moderate to approximately 2%. A reduction in unemployment has created suitable conditions for accelerated wage growth and a return in the path of inflation to the policy objective of below, but close to, 2%. At its monetary policy meeting in June 2018, the Governing Council of the ECB took policy decisions spanning a period of over one year, at least through the summer of 2019. The Governing Council announced that monetary policy will continue to remain accommodative for an extended period, even if monetary policy has entered a path of gradual normalisation.

Economic recovery in the euro area and Finland is continuing, although the most rapid phase of growth is beginning to fade. Finland has come through the COVID-19 pandemic better than initially feared, thanks largely to the focus on behaving responsibly towards each other. Bringing the pandemic under control remains central, both in terms of people’s health and for the economy. Nevertheless, the pandemic will continue to strongly influence our lives, and we will still need to exercise responsibility in the future.

Global economic growth began to moderate in early 2018. Industrial confidence has waned worldwide and global manufactures trade has seen its growth stall this year. Financial markets have avoided disruption for the time being, but the widening trade war has already slowed the expansion of the global economy.

Active measures to strengthen the public finances should be taken when the economy is in good heart.

Maailmantalouden näkymien heikkeneminen ja epävarmuuden kasvu välittyvät tällä hetkellä Suomen talouteen voimakkaammin kuin yleisesti on arvioitu.