Browsing by Subject "Russian economy"

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  • Yakovlev, Andrei; Freinkman, Lev; Zolotov, Anton (2016)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 3/2016
    This paper considers the development and current state of Russia’s think tank sector. As in Eastern Europe, international technical assistance played an important in development of Russian think tanks in 1990s. However unlike Eastern Europe, especially new EU members, demand for economic policy input in Russia at the national level has remained strong. As a result, members of Russian expert community today commonly serve in government posts and act as first movers in the consensus-building process for government policy. Russia’s leading economic think tanks have organized professionally to secure a high standard of independent economic analytics and ethical behavior. In this sense, the sector seems more mature than local think tanks in Eastern Europe. While the sector today faces serious challenges from legislative changes that have largely limited the client base to government entities, the economic analysis provided by think tanks remains critical to policy-setting. The findings are based on two surveys of Russia’s leading think tanks. The surveys, conducted in 2012–2013 and 2015, are augmented with in-depth interviews with representatives of Russia’s top think tanks.
  • Simola, Heli (2019)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2019
    Russia is integrated with the global economy through trade and financial linkages, making it vulnerable to external shocks. To gain perspective on the importance of various external factors, we present a brief description of Russia’s foreign economic relations and review the recent literature on the effects of foreign shocks on the Russian economy. We examine the impacts on Russian GDP from oil price, foreign output and interest-rate shocks and Western sanctions, as well as exchange-rate pass-through to Russian consumer price inflation. Our review shows that external shocks are important for Russian economic fluctuations. In quantitative terms, the estimates on long-term impacts of different external shocks vary from 0.1 % to 2 % of Russian GDP.
  • Mäkinen, Mikko (2016)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2016
    Statistical agencies release their preliminary estimates of quarterly GDP growth with a publication delay that ranges from four to eight weeks. Given this lack of timeliness, nowcasting methods have been developed to produce early estimates of GDP growth during the ongoing quarter. As a practical illustration of these methods, I apply several small-scale nowcasting models, including a dynamic factor model, to produce estimates of Russian GDP growth for the first quarter of 2016. I then compare the nowcasting performance of the dynamic factor model against naïve AR- and ADLmodels using pseudo out-of-sample forecasting errors. The results indicate Russia’s GDP contraction slowed in the first quarter of 2016. The dynamic factor model outperforms the naïve models,displaying better nowcasting prediction accuracy for Russian GDP.
  • Nuutilainen, Riikka; Rautava, Jouko (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 2/2020
    This paper examines the development of economic relations between Russia and China in recent years, focusing on how the slowdown in China’s growth and changes in its economic structures might impact Russia’s economic outlook and the future of China-Russia economic relations. Economic relations between the countries have progressed favorably over the past decade with increased trade and Russian oil exports to China buoying Russian economic growth. While this trade cooperation has served both countries’ interests, it has also reinforced Russia’s dependence on commodity exports. Like the rest of the world, Russia has to deal with China’s slowing economic growth. Those repercussions, however, are particularly challenging in Russia’s case.