Browsing by Subject "Saksa"

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  • Taipalus, Katja (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2006
    The dividend yield ratio in the stock markets is, to an extent, comparable to the rent-price ratio in the housing market.Taking advantage of this definitional similarity, one can then use the traditional unit root test for log dividend yield in this case, the log rent-price ratio to test for the existence of real estate bubbles.Such unit root tests are conducted for Finland, USA, UK, Spain and Germany, and the simple test results strongly suggest the existence of bubbles in nearly all of these countries.In addition to this, we develop a continuous and monthly rent-price information-based method to track the periods when real estate prices diverge from their fundamental levels.This indicator seems to work quite well in most cases, indicating bubbles during periods which, according to the consensus literature, are seen as periods of sizable upward or downward shifts in house prices. Key words: house price, bubble, unit root JEL classification numbers: G12
  • Schmöller, Michaela (2013)
    Suomen Pankki. BoF online 7/2013
    In the wake of the recent economic crisis, unemployment rates in many countries have notably increased and the question of how to promote employment and combat unemployment has become a central and difficult matter for policy-makers. In the light of these challenges, Germany is commonly considered a role model for tackling the problem of unemployment. Even as recently as a decade ago, Germany faced persistently high unemployment and its labour market institutions were regarded as a symbol of inflexibility. Today, the unemployment rate in Germany is remarkably low and not even the vast GDP drop in the recent 'Great Recession' has hampered this exceptional labour market performance. This striking change in the German labour market even led to the Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman coining the term 'German job miracle' in order to describe the evolution of the German labour market. The aim of this study is to shed light on this 'job miracle' in Germany.
  • Pesola, Jarmo (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2005
    The macroeconomic determinants of banking sector distresses in the Nordic countries, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain and the UK are analysed using an econometric model estimated on panel data from partly the early 1980s to 2002.The dependent variable is the ratio of banks' loan losses to lending.In addition to the lagged dependent variable, the explanatory variables include a surprise change in incomes and real interest rates, both variables as a separate cross-product term with lagged aggregate indebtedness.The underlying macroeconomic account that this paper puts forward is that loan losses are basically generated by strong adverse aggregate shocks under high exposure of banks to such shocks.The underlying innovations to income and real interest rates are constructed using published macro-economic forecast for these variables.According to the results, high customer indebtedness combined with adverse macroeconomic surprise shocks to income and real interest rates contributed to the distress in banking sector. Loan losses also display strong autoregressive behaviour which might indicate a feedback effect from loan losses back to macroeconomic level in deep recessions.The results can be used in macro stresstesting the banking sector. Key words: financial fragility, shock, loan loss, banking crisis JEL Classification numbers: G21, E44
  • Schauman, Heidi; Vanhala, Juuso (2011)
    Suomen Pankki. BoF online 2/2011
    Kansainvälinen finanssikriisi on johtanut syvimpään globaaliin taantumaan sitten 1930-luvun suuren laman. Vaikka taloudet ovat elpymässä, finanssikriisin kielteiset vaikutukset näkyvät vielä pitkään työmarkkinoilla. On odotettavissa, että tässä kriisissä toistuu monissa aiemmissa kriiseissä havaittuja piirteitä. Työllisyyden ja osallistumisasteen toipuminen muodostunee huomattavasti tuotannon toipumista hitaammaksi. Pitkäaikaistyöttömien osuus työttömistä joka on vasta hiljattain lähtenyt nousuun jatkanee kasvuaan, vaikka taantuman pohja on ohitettu. Lisäksi on mahdollista, että taantuman jälkeinen työpaikkojen kasvu ei tapahdu samoilla sektoreilla, joilla työpaikkoja on menetetty. Tässä selvityksessä tarkastellaan finanssikriisin vaikutuksia Suomen työmarkkinoille, ja verrataan Suomen kokemuksia mm. Yhdysvaltoihin ja Saksaan. Tarkastelun kohteena ovat etenkin työmarkkinoiden kohtaanto, rakenteelliset muutokset ja politiikkatoimien vaikutukset työmarkkinoiden sopeutumiskanaviin.
  • Arango, Carlos; Bouhdaoui, Yassine; Bounie, David; Eschelbach, Martina; Hernandez, Lola (2015)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2015
    Despite various payment innovations, today, cash is still heavily used to pay for low-value purchases. This paper proposes a simulation model based on two optimal cash management and payment policies in the payments economics literature to explain cash usage. First, cash is preferred to other payment instruments whenever consumers have enough balances at hand. Second, it is optimal for consumers to hold a stock of cash for precautionary reasons. Exploiting survey payment diaries from Canada, France, Germany and the Netherlands, the results of the simulations show that both optimal policies are well suited to understand the high shares of low-value cash payments in Canada, France and Germany. Yet, they do not perform as well in the case of the Netherlands, overestimating the share of low-value cash payments. We discuss how the differences in payment markets across countries may explain the limitations of the two optimal policies.
  • Malkamäki, Markku (1992)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/1992
    This paper examines eointegration and Granger eatisality among the stock markets in the United States, the United Kindom, Germany, Sweden and Finland. The first three nations are the biggest trading partners of the two small open Nordie eeonomies, Finland and Sweden. We apply standard univariate VAR models and a system of VAR models under the assumption of multivariate eointegration, first introdueed in Johansen (1988). Our results from eausality analysis eontradiet the prior understanding with respect to the eausal relations between the Nordie and other stoek markets. Our multivariate eointegration analysis suggests that the stoek markets are cointegrated with one eointegrating veetor when prices are measured in IoeaI eurrencies or in Finnish markkas and two eointegrating vectors when prices are measured in US dollars. The Finnish stoek market is always found to be led by the German market, and aIso by the UK market when returns are measured in IoeaI eurreneies or in Finnish markkas. We also found that the Swedish stoek market is Granger eaused by the UK market instead of the US market as previously suggested. The data covers the period 1974-1989.
  • Juselius, Mikael; Kim, Moshe; Ringbom, Staffan (2009)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2009
    Persistent shifts in equilibria are likely to arise in oligopolistic markets and may be detrimental to the measurement of conduct, related markups and intensity of competition. We develop a cointegrated VAR (vector autoregression) based approach to detect long-run changes in conduct when data are difference stationary. Importantly, we separate the components in markups which are exclusively related to long-run changes in conduct from those explained solely by fundamentals. Our approach does not require estimation of markups and conduct directly, thereby avoiding complex problems in existing methodologies related to multiple and changing equilibria. Results from applying the model to US and five major European banking sectors indicate substantially different behavior of conventional raw markups and conduct-induced markups. Keywords: markups, cointegration, VAR, macroeconomic fundamentals, competition, banking JEL classification numbers: C32, C51, G20, L13, L16
  • Granlund, Peik (2003)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 5/2003
    This paper evaluates bank exit regimes in selected financial centres using econometric methods.The focus is on bank exit regimes applicable to commercial banks in New York, London, Frankfurt, Helsinki and Tokyo in 1998-2002.Bank exit regimes are studied from the perspective of bank creditors and bank shareholders.In order to apply econometric methods, the exit regimes are indexed and then evaluated by comparing them with market indicators that reflect the interests of bank creditors and shareholders.These market indicators comprise bank refinancing costs and bank growth rates.In other words, two specific questions are addressed: (1) Do differences in bank exit regimes of significance to bank creditors explain differences in bank refinancing costs?(2) Do differences in bank exit regimes significant to bank shareholders explain differences in bank growth?The study shows that in those financial centres where the probability of bailout is higher, refinancing costs for banks are lower.
  • Pikkarainen, Pentti (1999)
    Rahapolitiikan strategialla tarkoitetaan periaatteita, joita keskuspankki noudattaa pyrkiessään saavuttamaan rahapolitiikkansa tavoitteet.Onnistuneelta strategialta edellytetään selkeitä ja julkisia periaatteita ja välineitä, joiden avulla tavoitteisiin pyritään.EKP:n neuvosto päätti ja julkisti eurojärjestelmän rahapolitiikan strategian keskeiset elementit loppuvuodesta 1998.
  • Nieminen, Maritta; Tarkka, Juha (2014)
    Suomen Pankki. BoF online 10/2014
    Tässä artikkelissa tarkastellaan Euroopan keskuspankin ja eurojärjestelmän mandaattia eli sille määrättyjä tavoitteita, sille uskottuja tehtäviä ja sille annettuja toimivaltuuksia. Tavoitteena on selvittää kansainvälisten vertailujen avulla ja tutkimuskirjallisuuteen perustuen, mitä vaikutuksia EKP:n mandaatin muuttamisella voisi olla. Tarkastelu painottuu kysymykseen työllisyys- ja kasvutavoitteiden asemaan rahapolitiikassa.
  • Kauste, Ilsa; Puhakka, Iiris (2019)
    Finanssivalvonta. Blogi 11/2019
    Kansainvälisen yhteistyön tekeminen on merkittävä osa keskuspankkien ja finanssivalvontaviranomaisten työtä. Laaja-alaista, valtioiden rajat ylittävää yhteistyötä tehdään yhteiseksi hyväksi – taloudellisen vakauden säilyttämiseksi sekä finanssimarkkinoiden asianmukaisen ja häiriöttömän toiminnan varmistamiseksi.
  • Alho, Eeva (2011)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 1
    The delay in the complete restructuring of banks continues to undermine financial stability in Europe. Banks that have received state aid in the crisis are required to downsize their balance sheets. In some countries, the entire banking sector needs to be reorganised. Solutions have been slow in coming given all the political restrictions, and banks have been squeezed between public assistance and market pressure.
  • He, Xinhua; Qin, Duo; Liu, Yimeng (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2011
    Published in Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Volume 10, Issue 3, August 2012, Pages 247-266
    The familiar claim of Chinese currency manipulation is generally asserted without reference to empirical evidence. To investigate the legitimacy of the claim, we ask if the undervalued misalignment found in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) over the past decade has any recent historical precedents. Four cases are examined: the Japanese yen, the Deutsche mark, the Singapore dollar and the Taiwan dollar. Panel-based misalignment estimates of the REER of the four currencies are obtained using quarterly data from the late 1970s to the early 2000s. Our estimates suggest that there are precedents to the recent misalignment of the RMB in terms of magnitude, duration or breadth of currency coverage, and that a net build-up in foreign asset does not necessarily result in currency misalignment. In addition to finding little empirical justification for the claim of Chinese currency manipulation, we note that REER misalignment runs a risk of propagating inflation in the home economy.
  • Pitkäniemi, F. M. (1934)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 14 ; 5 ; May
  • Junttila, Juha (2002)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita; Bank of Finland. Discussion papers 2/2002
    Using recently developed modelling methodology of Economic Tracking Portfolios (ETP), we find that it is possible to forecast future values of inflation and changes in industrial production in the United States and at least three core euro countries - Italy, France and Germany - utilising only current and past financial market information.The longer the forecasting horizon, the better the forecasts based solely on financial market information compared to results from other methods.Of the analysed countries, the overall forecasting performance of the tracking portfolios is the best for the United States, and the method employed here clearly outperforms the forecasting performance of a more traditional VAR approach. Key words: financial markets, forecasting, macroeconomy, euro area, USA
  • Kuo, Biing-Shen; Mikkola, Anne (2000)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita; Bank of Finland. Discussion papers 13/2000
    The out-of-sample forecasting performances of two univariate time series presentations for the USD/DEM real exchange rate are compared using quarterly data for the period 1957Q1-1998Q4.The linear AR process is frequently fitted to real exchange rate series because it is sufficient for capturing the reported slow mean reversion in real exchange rates and it has some predictive ability for the long run.A simple nonlinear alternative, the threshold autoregressive (TAR) model, allows for the possibility that there is a band of slow or no convergence around the purchasing power parity level in the real exchange rate, due to transportation costs or other market frictions that create barriers to arbitrage.The TAR model is theoretically and empirically appealing, and it has been fitted to real exchange rates in many recent papers.However, the ultimate test of its usefulness is its out-of-sample forecasting accuracy.We compare the TAR model to its simple linear AR alternative in terms of out-of-sample forecast accuracy. Preliminary results using the RMSE criterion indicate that TAR forecasts are more sensitive to the estimation period and that they involve considerably more uncertainty at long horizons, as compared with the simple AR model.
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Maraun, Douglas; Mayes, David (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2006
    Published in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, No. 4, Volume: 2008, Issue 1: 63-95
    Using recent advances in time-varying spectral methods, this research analyses the growth cycles of the core of the euro area in terms of frequency content and phasing of cycles.The methodology uses the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and also Hilbert wavelet pairs in the setting of a non-decimated discrete wavelet transform in order to analyse bivariate time series in terms of conventional frequency domain measures from spectral analysis.The findings are that coherence and phasing between the three core members of the euro area (France, Germany and Italy) have increased since the launch of the euro. Key words: time-varying spectral analysis, coherence, phase, business cycles, EMU, growth cycles, Hilbert transform, wavelet analysis JEL classification numbers: C19, C63, C65, E32, E39, E58, F40
  • Vajanne, Laura (2009)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2009
    This paper tests for the existence of market power in banking, using data on demand deposit rates of households and corresponding market rates in five euro area countries. An implicit measure for market power is based on a partial adjustment model that also allows for an asymmetric response of deposit rates to changes in market rates. The period covers the ten years since introduction of the euro. The analysis indicates that banks are exercising major market power within the euro area. In addition to general sluggishness, bank deposit rates reactions are clearly asymmetric: flexible when market rates are decreasing and rigid when rates are increasing. The degree of asymmetric behaviour can be interpreted as a further indication of the market power banks exercise. Despite country differences, a general pattern of interest rate adjustment in demand deposit pricing is observable.
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Kuoppamäki, Pasi (1999)
    Euroalueen suurimmissa talouksissa ja Suomessa julkinen talous on tasaisen talouskasvun ja alhaisen korkotason vallitessa kestävällä pohjalla. jos talouskasvu häiriintyy toi korkotaso nousee, joutuu julkisen talouden kestävyys kuitenkin koetukselle.Verotuksen mahdollinen yhdenmukaistuminen kaventaisi erityisesti ankaran verotuksen maiden, kuten Suomen, finanssipolitiikan liikkumavaraa. Myös eläkemenojen kasvu väestön ikääntyessä aiheuttaa merkittäviä paineita julkisen talouden kestävyydelle.
  • Kortelainen, Mika; Lindblad, Annika; Obstbaum, Meri; Schmöller, Michaela (2020)
    Euro & talous 3/2020
    Maailmantalouden näkymät heikkenivät keväällä, kun koronavirus levisi pandemiaksi. Merkittävät rajoitukset liikkumiseen, liiketoimintaan ja kanssakäymiseen ovat heikentäneet kasvun edellytyksiä laajalti samalla kun niin kulutusta kuin investointejakin vaikeuttaa viruksen aiheuttama epävarmuus. Lyhyen aikavälin indikaattorit kertovat Suomen, Ruotsin ja Saksan talouksien äkillisestä ja kohtalaisen samanaikaisesta heikentymisestä maaliskuussa. Toukokuun aikana korkean frekvenssin indikaattoreissa on nähty orastavia piristymisen merkkejä, mutta epävarmuus on suurta ja toipuminen tulee olemaan hidasta.