Browsing by Author "Simola, Heli"

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  • Simola, Heli; Korhonen, Vesa (2016)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 9/2016
    ​Venäjän arktisten alueiden merkitys koko maan talouden kannalta rajallinen, mutta siellä on merkittäviä luonnonvaroja ja Venäjällä alueita pidetään tärkeinä kansallisen turvallisuuden näkökulmasta. Venäjän arktisilla alueilla on noin 3 % maan väestöstä ja niiden yhteenlaskettu osuus Venäjän BKT:stä on viime vuosina ollut arviolta hieman alle 7 %. Arktisilla alueilla tuotetaan kuitenkin noin 80 % Venäjän maakaasusta ja lähes 15 % öljystä. Lisäksi siellä sijaitsee merkittävä osa Venäjän todennetuista maakaasu- ja öljyvarannoista, joista osa on tosin vaikeasti hyödynnettävissä. Hankalat sääolosuhteet ja korkeat kustannukset rajoittavat arktisten alueiden asemaa kuljetusreittinä, joten niiden kautta kulkee vain 5 % Venäjän merikuljetuksista.
  • Arponen, Annikki; Korhonen, Iikka; Nuutilainen, Riikka; Rautava, Jouko; Simola, Heli (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 16/2014
    Joulukuussa järjestetyn BOFIT Kiina-tietoiskun viisi esitystä käsittelivät Kiinan taloutta ja yhteiskuntaa monesta eri näkökulmasta. Tähän julkaisuun on koottu esitysten keskeinen sisältö artikkeleina. Ensimmäinen artikkeli käsittelee Kiinan talouskehitystä aivan viime aikoina. Toisessa artikkelissa käydään läpi Kiinan toimia rahoitusmarkkinoiden vapauttamiseksi ja mm. talletussuojan käyttöönottoa. Kolmannen artikkelin aiheena on Kiinan poliittisen järjestelmän mahdollisuus uudistua. Neljäs ja viides artikkeli käsittelevät Kiinan taloudellista integraatiota muiden maiden kanssa. Neljännessä artikkelissa tarkastellaan Kiinan ja Venäjän välisiä taloussuhteita, ja viidennen artikkelin aiheina ovat Kiinan suorat ulkomaiset sijoitukset sekä maan toimeliaisuus uusien kehityspankkien perustamisessa. Hakusanat: Kiina, Venäjä, talouskehitys, talouspolitiikka, taloudellinen integraatio, talousuudistus, inflaatio, juan, pankit, kehityspankki. Kaikki esitykset ovat nähtävissä osoitteessa http://wms.magneetto.com/suomenpankki/2014_1203_kiinaseminaari/view.
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Korhonen, Vesa; Lainela, Seija; Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 7/2014
    Kesäkuussa järjestetyn BOFIT Venäjä-tietoiskun viisi esitystä käsitteli Venäjän hidastuvaa talouskasvua monesta eri näkökulmasta. Tähän julkaisuun on koottu esitysten keskeinen sisältö artikkeleina. Ensimmäinen artikkeli keskittyy Venäjän talouskehitykseen aivan viime aikoina. Toinen artikkeli käsittelee Venäjän rahoitus- ja pankkimarkkinoiden kehitystä mm. yritysten rahoituksen saatavuuden näkökulmasta, kun taas kolmannen artikkelin aihe on Ukrainan vaikea taloustilanne. Neljäs ja viiden artikkeli käsittelevät Venäjän taloudellista integraatiota muiden maiden kanssa. Neljäs artikkeli tarkastelee syntymässä olevaa Euraasian liittoa, ja viidennen artikkelin aiheena on Venäjän asema kansainvälisissä tuotantoketjuissa. Hakusanat: Venäjä, Ukraina, talouskehitys, talouspolitiikka, lainananto, taloudellinen integraatio. Kaikki esitykset ovat nähtävissä osoitteessa http://wms.magneetto.com/suomenpankki/2014_0603_seminaari/view.
  • Korhonen, Vesa; Fungáčová, Zuzana; Solanko, Laura; Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli (2015)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 7/2015
    Kesäkuussa järjestetty BOFIT Venäjä-tietoiskun käsitteli Venäjän vaikeaa taloudellista tilannetta useasta eri näkökulmasta. Ensimmäinen artikkeli käsittelee Venäjän talouskehitystä viime aikoina. Tuotanto laskee useimmilla sektoreilla, ja kotitalouksien reaalitulot ovat laskeneet selvästi. Lähiaikojen talouskehitys riippuu mm. öljyn hinnasta. Toinen artikkeli käsittelee rahoituksen välittymistä Venäjällä. Näyttää siltä, että pienten ja keskisuurten mahdollisuus saada mm. pankkilainaa pienenee entisestään. Kolmas artikkeli käy läpi Venäjän pitkän aikavälin kasvumahdollisuuksiin vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Mm. työvoiman supistumisen takia talouskasvu ei todennäköisesti keskimäärin ylitä kahta prosenttia seuraavien kahden vuosikymmenen aikana. Neljäs esitys osoittaa, miten Venäjän taloudelliset siteet EU:hun ovat edelleen hyvin monimuotoiset, ja puheet mahdollisesta ’kääntymisestä itään’ ovat tähän mennessä olleet vähintään ennenaikaisia. Kaikki esitykset ovat nähtävissä osoitteessa http://cloud.magneetto.com/suomenpankki/2015_0605_venaja/angular
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Forsberg, Tuomas; Korhonen, Vesa; Simola, Heli (2016)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 5/2016
    Kesäkuussa 2016 järjestetty BOFIT Venäjä-tietoisku kartoitti Venäjän kehityksen ajankohtaisia aiheita. Tähän julkaisuun on koottu tietoiskun neljän esityksen keskeinen sisältö lyhyinä artikkeleina. Ensimmäinen artikkeli käsittelee Venäjän talouskehitystä ja arvioi, että pahin vaihe on takanapäin. Toinen artikkeli puntaroi Venäjän ja EU:n suhdetta ja esittää, ettei nopeaa keinoa suhteiden parantamiseksi ole. Kolmannessa artikkelissa arvioidaan Venäjän valtion talouden tilaa todeten, että pienentyneiden öljytulojen myötä valtio joutuu etsimään uusia tulonlähteitä ja karsimaan menoja. Viimeinen artikkeli pureutuu Venäjän tuonninkorvauspolitiikkaan paljastaen siihen liittyvät monet ongelmat. Hakusanat: Venäjä, talouskehitys, EU, julkinen talous, vienti, tuonti, ulkopolitiikka, sisäpolitiikka. Kaikki esitykset ovat nähtävissä osoitteessa http://cloud.magneetto.com/suomenpankki/2016_0608_venaja/angular
  • Simola, Heli (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 10/2021
    With the EU adopting more ambitious emission reduction targets this year, the European Commission in July published a proposal on measures for adjusting EU climate policy. Measures include a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that imposes a price on emissions embodied in products imported to the EU. In this policy note, we review the main lines of the CBAM proposal and discuss its potential economic effects on China, India, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine – the EU’s largest import sources for products subject to CBAM. We calculate illustrative estimates for the potential cost effectsof several specifications of the CBAM for these countries and compare them against earlier estimates. We also discuss the potential aggregate economic effects of the CBAM for these economies based on earlier literature. Despite considerable variation across countries and sectors, our analysis suggests that the aggregate economic effects of the CBAM would be limited for most exporting countries.
  • Simola, Heli (2017)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 2/2017
    Published in Asian Economic Papers, 17, 2, 2018, 50–64 as "Chinese Services Gaining Significance in Global Production Chains"
    We examine the role of China in world production and its development by utilizing the international input-output tables of the WIOD database that has been recently updated to cover years 2000–2014. We concentrate on the value added created in China and trace the evolution of China’s share in world production and exports. We also examine the specialization of China’s production and export structure and try to evaluate its significance for China’s performance through constant market share analysis. We find that China has gained shares hugely both in global production and exports, although the pace has slowed down in recent years. The share gains have been supported by its rapidly growing domestic market as well as strong global competitiveness. China’s production and export structure have shifted to more high-technology sectors both in manufacturing and services, but these sectors still represent much smaller share in Chinese economy compared to developed economies.
  • Simola, Heli (2017)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2017
    Forthcoming in Asian Economic Papers
    We examine the international fragmentation of production chains in different countries using international input-output tables with a focus on China. We explore the development of main macro-level trends established in the previous literature with the most recent data available and compare Chinese production chains to those of other countries. We find that while international fragmentation of value chains has increased notably in other countries during 2000–2014, in China it has turned to decline in the latter part of the time period. The share of domestic value added has increased both in Chinese manufacturing and business service chains. The role of services has increased in the value chains of all countries, but even more pronouncedly in China mainly due to higher contribution from domestic services. Comparing globalization as opposed to regionalization in production chains shows that for most countries globalization has increased. A notable exception are other Asian countries than China, where value chains have instead become increasingly regional. Both these trends are largely due to the increased role of China in international production chains.
  • Simola, Heli (MIT Press, 2018)
    Asian Economic Papers 2 ; Summer 2018
    China has been a key participant in international fragmentation of production during the last decades. China has specialized mainly in labor-intensive manufacturing, but is striving to shift toward higher value-added production stages and production. At the same time, during recent decades, services have contributed increasing shares of valued-added to products produced through global production chains. For this reason we examine the evolving role of Chinese services in international production chains. Our results suggest that Chinese services account for an increasingly large share of production for the domestic market, and more recently have made increasing contributions to foreign production chains, which suggests that Chinese production is shifting to activities in production chains that are associated with higher value-added.
  • Simola, Heli (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 11/2020
    Even with substantial uncertainty over the timing and magnitude of climate change, the potential impacts pose significant risks to long-term global economic development. This paper reviews relevant literature on economic effects of climate change with respect to Russia, which faces physical risks as well as risks created by the transition to a low-carbon economy. Most risks arise from the orientation of Russian production and exports to carbon-intensive sectors, particularly oil and gas. Nevertheless, Russia has shown little ambition in addressing risks related to climate change.
  • Simola, Heli (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2020
    In this note, we provide a brief description of the CO2 emissions embodied in global trade flows with an emphasis on the EU’s external trade with China. Our analysis suggests that imported emissions account for an increasing share of CO2 emissions associated with consumption within the EU. The CO2 emissions embodied in EU imports mainly originate from emerging economies, particularly China. We also discuss possible effects from the introduction an EU border adjustment mechanism that would impose tariffs on CO2 embodied in imports to the EU. Our results suggest that a potential border adjustment mechanism would likely affect EU trade with China, the largest source of CO2 imports to the EU. The effects would probably be felt more in imports of inputs for production chains located in the EU than in final products consumed in the EU.
  • Simola, Heli (2021)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    The global economy and global trade flows have been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. The trade collapse in the second quarter of 2020 was even more severe than during the trough of the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2009. However, taking into account the substantial fall in the GDP of most countries during the COVID-19 crisis, the relative trade contraction seems milder compared with the GFC. During the GFC, the combined volume of the GDP in OECD countries contracted by about 5%, and the combined volume of imports of goods and services by 17% from peak to trough (Figure 1). The corresponding figures for the COVID-19 crisis were -12% and -20%, respectively. Trade has also recovered rapidly since the trough in the second quarter of 2020. Trade was almost back at pre-crisis level by the end of the year.
  • Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 6/2020
    Revised version published April 8, 2020.
    This note considers the potential impacts on Russia from drastic economy-wide measures used in various countries to “flatten the epidemiological curve” of the COVID-19 virus. We extend the analysis framework recently introduced by the OECD to distinguish international spillover effects that come via decrease in export demand and effects from potential domestic containment measures that affect domestic demand.
  • Simola, Heli (2016)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 6/2016
    The economic cooperation between Russia and China has increased notably during past couple of decades, although from a very low level. Despite the increase, economic dependency between countries remains relatively low and it is rather a one-sided dependency of Russia from China than a deeper inter-dependency. The economic relations have largely been characterized by traditional trade based on comparative advantage, whereas investment flows between countries have been relatively small. Since Russia’s relations with the western countries have deteriorated, it has aimed at closer ties with China. The high-level relations are probably better than ever, but in practice the development has been more modest. Economic cooperation between Russia and China is likely to continue increasing gradually, but there are many challenges for deepening the relations and raising mutual inter-dependency.
  • Simola, Heli (2019)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2019
    Russia is integrated with the global economy through trade and financial linkages, making it vulnerable to external shocks. To gain perspective on the importance of various external factors, we present a brief description of Russia’s foreign economic relations and review the recent literature on the effects of foreign shocks on the Russian economy. We examine the impacts on Russian GDP from oil price, foreign output and interest-rate shocks and Western sanctions, as well as exchange-rate pass-through to Russian consumer price inflation. Our review shows that external shocks are important for Russian economic fluctuations. In quantitative terms, the estimates on long-term impacts of different external shocks vary from 0.1 % to 2 % of Russian GDP.
  • Simola, Heli (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2019
    The slowing in China’s massive economy has wide implications. China plays an essential role in international production chains, so disturbances can spill over to other economies in the global production network. We evaluate the international transmission and impact of various China-specific shocks with an input-output framework applied to the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). We consider shocks to Chinese final demand at the aggregate level, bilateral import tariffs between the US and China and sector-specific shocks to Chinese final demand and supply. Our results suggest that aggregate level shocks, as well as certain sector-specific shocks originating in China, may have large impacts elsewhere. Transmission of shocks through the global production network, however, is mitigated by the relatively low import-intensity of Chinese production.
  • Ollus, Simon-Erik; Simola, Heli (2007)
    BOFIT Online 5/2007
    We study re-exports from Finland to Russia.Re-exported goods are defined as goods that are imported by a purchaser in one country who then exports the product to a third country without processing. Re-exports are a major driver behind recent growth of Finnish exports to Russia, with re-exports constituting over a quarter of Finnish exports to Russia in 2005.Re-exporting typically involves high-value products such as electronics and vehicles.Finland's involvement in such trade reflects the technically advanced nature of Finnish logistics and traditionally large transit streams through Finland to Russia.Other reasons for re-exports include Russia's vast market potential for Finnish trading companies, Finnish companies' special knowledge about Russian demand (asymmetric information), transfer pricing and grey schemes.The domestic income and employment effects of re-exports are similar to those of transit trade.Re-exports are highly cyclical, making long-term developments hard to predict. Keywords: Russia, Finland, foreign trade, re-exports.
  • Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 5/2014
    Ukraine is afraid of Russia cutting off its gas supplies if it cannot pay the higher price demanded by Gazprom. However, the situation is not an easy one for Gazprom, either, Ukraine being one of its largest customers and an important transit route to European customers. Most EU countries would be unlikely to face major difficulties from possible short-term disruptions in the availability of gas imports. Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, energy
  • Simola, Heli (2012)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Monetary policy and the global economy 4
    The global economic crisis has kept domestically generated inflation pressures at moderate levels in advanced economies in recent years. As a consequence of the crisis, abundant spare production capacity has been available and domestic demand has been slow to regain momentum. By contrast, in many emerging economies, inflation has picked up markedly since 2009, as these economies suffered from the crisis considerably less and have recovered quickly. Due to the substantial rise in the weight of emerging economies in the world economy during the last decade, these countries also have a significant impact on global inflation. This article aims to outline the magnitude, channels and longer-term trends of this impact.
  • Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2014
    Talousvaikeuksissa kamppaileva Ukraina pelkää Venäjän sulkevan kaasuhanat, jollei se pysty maksamaan Gazpromin vaatimaa korkeampaa hintaa, mutta kaasukiistan kärjistyminen ei olisi helppoa Gazpromillekaan. EU:lle mahdollisten lyhytaikaisten maakaasun toimitushäiriöiden vaikutukset lienisivät tällä hetkellä varsin vähäiset.