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  • Ahlstedt, Monica (1998)
    Suomen Pankki. E 11
    This study uses GARCH modelling to estimate and forecast conditional variances and covariances of returns calculated from a set of financial market series: twelve markka exchange rates, twelve corresponding shortterm euro interest rates and the Finnish short-term interest rate, the Finnish long-term interest rate, the Finnish all-share index and real estate prices. The variances are specified through univariate estimation and the analysis is then extended to a portfolio of assets by presenting and applying two alternative methods for covariance modelling.The first method is based on the assumption of identical autocorrelation structure for variances and covariances.The other method is based on the assumption of constant correlation.Both methods are flexible and enable the extension of the analysis to a large number of return series. The study then derives a forecast function from the models estimated from pooled data for variances and covariances of exchange rates and interest rates and from individual data for the other rates, in the form of a weighted moving average of past squared residuals.GARCH forecasts for the variances of individual return series as well as portfolios are compared in an ex post context, on the one hand, to two alternative forecasts based on piecewise homoscedastic variance models and, on the other, to actual data on squared returns. The empirical results in the study show that the estimated variance-covariance models display a high degree of similarity both across the variables and across subsamples (ie across exchange rate regimes); GARCH(1,1) seems to represent the underlying conditional variance process fairly well.In terms of persistence in the variance processes, which is nearly IGARCH(l,1), the estimated models are also remarkably similar both for the individual variables and for pooled data.Hence parsimony suggests using an integrated process to represent volatility in the sample.The study also argues that the estimated GARCH models represent a methodological and empirical improvement over those estimates typically used eg in value-at-risk calculations. Keywords: time-dependent volatility, GARCH estimation, value-at-risk models
  • Tarkka, Juha (1995)
    Suomen Pankki. E 2
    Sisällysluettelo: 1 Introduction 11 2 Price parameters of the deposit relationship 15 2.1 Dimensions of pricing 15 2.2 The tariff function 18 3 On the historical development of demand deposit pricing 22 3.1 The classical period of deposit pricing 22 3.2 The period of regulated banking 26 3.3 The new competition 30 4 Theories of deposit account pricing 35 4.1 The free competition model 35 4.2 The monopolistic approach 36 4.3 The implicit interest question 39 4.4 The multiproduct approach 43 5 Developing the theory of deposit pricing 45 5.1 Essay I: The risk sharing explanation 46 5.2 Essay II: The tax explanation 48 5.3 Essay III: The price discrimination explanation 49 5.4 Essay IV: Switching costs 51 6 Conclusions 52 References 54 Appendix The deposit account terms offered by a Finnish bank in 1995 59
  • Snellman, Heli (2006)
    Suomen Pankki. E 38
    This study discusses the effects of the Automated Teller Machine (ATM) network market structure on the availability of cash withdrawal ATM services and cash usage.The aim and novelty of the study is to construct the ATM equation.The study also contributes to the earlier discussion on the effects of ATMs on cash usage.The monopolisation of ATM network market structure and its effects on the number of ATMs and on cash in circulation are analysed both theoretically and empirically.The unique annual data set on 20 countries used in the estimations has been combined from various data sources.The observation period is 1988-2003, but the data on some countries are available only for a shorter period.Based on our theoretical discussion, as well as the estimation results, monopolisation of the ATM network market structure is associated with a smaller number of ATMs.Furthermore, the influence of the number of ATMs on cash in circulation is ambiguous. Key words: ATM, ATM network, monopolisation, demand for cash JEL classification: C33, E41, G2, C11
  • Vihriälä, Vesa (1997)
    Suomen Pankki. E 7
    The study focuses on the role of deposit banks in the makings of the Finnish credit cycle of 1986-1995.A preliminary descriptive analysis suggests that banks' credit supply had a positive effect on credit growth in the boom period and a negative effect in the early 1990s.There are furthermore some indications that moral hazard of weak banks played a role in the expansion phase and that insuffient capital constrained lending later on, thus causing a credit crunch. A theoretical model set up here suggests that one should examine the effects of both bank capital and costs on lending and also look at the issuance of subordinated debt as a means of testing the moral hazard and credit crunch hypotheses. An empirical analysis of the behaviour of 483 cooperative and savings banks over the second half of the 1980s gives strong support to the moral hazard hypothesis.In particular, the aggregate credit supply of the savings banks would have been substantially less if their capital had been high enough to eliminate moral hazard incentives. By contrast, almost no evidence of a credit crunch induced by weak bank capital is found in an analysis of 313 cooperative and savings bank in 1991 and 1992.Instead the effects of borrower creditworthiness and credit demand are underlined. Keywords: credit crunch, moral hazard, capital regulation, banking crisis
  • Taipalus, Katja (Edita Prima, 2006)
    Suomen Pankki. E 35
    Tests for unit roots in log dividend yields, which are consistent with 'rational bubbles' in stock prices, are conducted for the SP500 and Finnish stock market indexes.In addition to the traditional unit root tests, we split the data into 10-year segments and use frequency domain analysis to test for the presence of unit roots in the dividend yield data.The results strongly suggest the existence of bubbles in both the US and Finnish markets.Finally we develop a novel dividend yield-based method to track periods when stock prices divert their fundamental levels. This indicator produces promising results, as it seems to have some forecasting ability concerning booms and busts in the stock markets. Key words: equity price, bubble, rolling ADF
  • Välimäki, Tuomas (2003)
    Suomen Pankki. E 26
    Most OECD central banks implement monetary policy by supplying reserves to the banking sector with the aim of influencing short-term interbank interest rates.To interpret the monetary policy stance accurately, one needs to be familiar with the mechanism for determining the money market equilibrium.The aim of this study is to deepen our understanding of the various effects of different intervention styles on the short-term money market when monetary policy is implemented with an operational framework similar to that of the European Central Bank (ECB).In the first essay of this study, we model banks' demand for central bank reserves (liquidity) for each day of an n-day reserve maintenance period and analyse liquidity determination under alternative liquidity policy rules that a central bank might apply in fixed rate tenders.It is shown that there is a tradeoff between the central bank's ability to keep a market interest rate close to the tender rate and the stability of liquidity holdings within a maintenance period.The second essay presents a model of a single bank's optimal bidding in the context of fixed rate liquidity tenders.It is shown that banks' bidding crucially depends on the central bank's liquidity policy for tender allotments. This essay also analyses ECB liquidity policy in terms of the model.The final essay models the money market equilibrium and analyses Banks' bidding when the central bank uses variable rate tenders.The liquidity supply is fully endogenised by having the central bank minimise a loss function the includes deviations-from-target of interest rate and liquidity.ECB experiences with variable rate tenders are also studied in this essay. Key words: central bank operational framework, short-term interest rates, money markets, tenders, liquidity policy, bidding.
  • Hein, Eelis (1996)
    Suomen Pankki. E 6
    This study analyzes the valuation and bank risk incentive effects of deposit insurance using an approach based on options theory. While the value of deposit insurance can obviously be set under existing regulatory measures such as capital adequacy and reserve requirements, the actual and expected behaviour of the regulator is shown to exert an effect on bank risk policy, and thus, on the stability of the banking sector.The following factors are identified as possible causes of increased preference for risk on the part of banks: · an expectation that in the event of insolvency the deposit insurance will cover claim holders not otherwise initially insured; · an expectation on the part of shareholders that they are not threatened with losing their position; and · underpricing of deposit insurance premium in relation to a bank's market-valued capital adequacy. These expectations increase preference for higher risk because they remove both the need for debt holders to require any risk premium for their investment and the threat that shareholders might lose their participation in the bank's future earnings.Thus, banks are not "penalized" for taking on risk.Instead, the costs of higher risk are borne by the deposit insurer, which in Finland's case, is ultimately the government and taxpayers.A related issue is that the efficiency of the bank inspection authority seems to affect the risk-taking behaviour of banks (i.e. if a bank believes that the bank inspection authority is incapable of determining its true financial condition and actual risk exposure, it has incentive to take a riskier position). Using bank stock prices, point estimates of the value of deposit insurance are calculated for listed Finnish banks between 1987-1993.The results indicate that the value of the insurance has varied among banks and over time.Generally, charged deposit premia have been underpriced in comparison to the risk position of the studied banks.Thus, one consequence of the shakeout in Finland's banking sector appears to be that a sizable wealth transfer from the government to bank shareholders has taken place. Keywords: Banking, Deposit Insurance, Risk Incentives, Option Pricing, Regulatory Behaviour
  • Taipalus, Katja (2012)
    Suomen Pankki. E 47
    To promote the financial stability, there is a need for an early warning system to signal the formation of asset price misalignments. This research provides two novel methods to accomplish this task. Results in this research shows that the conventional unit root tests in modified forms can be used to construct early warning indicators for bubbles in financial markets. More precisely, the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test is shown to provide a basis for two novel bubble indicators. These new indicators are tested via MC simulations to analyze their ability to signal emerging unit roots in time series and to compare their power with standard stability and unit root tests. Simulation results concerning these two new stability tests are promising: they seem to be more robust and to have more power in the presence of changing persistence than the standard stability and unit root tests. When these new tests are applied to real US stock market data starting from 1871, they are able to signal most of the consensus bubbles, defined as stock market booms for example by the IMF, and they also flash warning signals far ahead of a crash. Also encouraging are the results with these methods in practical applications using equity prices in the UK, Finland and China as the methods seem to be able to signal most of the consensus bubbles from the data. Finally, these early warning indicators are applied to data for several housing markets. In most of the cases the indicators seem to work relatively well, indicating bubbles before the periods which, according to the consensus literature, are seen as periods of sizeable upward or downward movements. The scope of application of these early warning indicators could be wide. They could be used eg to help determine the right timing for the start of a monetary tightening cycle or for an increase in countercyclical capital buffers. Key words: asset prices, financial crises, bubbles, indicator, unit-root JEL classification: C15, G01, G12
  • Hellqvist, Matti; Laine, Tatu (2012)
    Suomen Pankki. E 45
    Chapter 1 Matti Hellqvist - Tatu Laine Introduction 9 Chapter 2 Klaus Abbink - Ronald Bosman - Ronald Heijmans - Frans van Winden Disruptions in large value payment systems: An experimental approach 15 Chapter 3 Edward Denbee - Rodney Garratt - Peter Zimmerman Methods for evaluating liquidity provision in real-time gross settlement payment systems 53 Chapter 4 Ronald Heijmans - Richard Heuver Is this bank ill? The diagnosis of doctor TARGET2 77 Chapter 5 Tatu Laine - Tuomas Nummelin - Heli Snellman Combining liquidity usage and interest rates on overnight loans: an oversight indicator 119 Chapter 6 Ronald Heijmans - Richard Heuver - Daniëlle Walraven Monitoring the unsecured interbank money market using TARGET2 data 135 Chapter 7 Luca Arciero Evaluating the impact of shocks to the supply of overnight unsecured money market funds on the TARGET2- Banca d'Italia functioning: a simulation study 169 Chapter 8 Ashwin Clarke - Jennifer Hancock Participant operational disruptions: the impact of system design 193 Chapter 9 Horatiu Lovin Systemically important participants in the ReGIS payment system 219 Chapter 10 Marc Pröpper - Iman van Lelyveld - Ronald Heijmans Network dynamics of TOP payments 235 Chapter 11 Carlos León - Clara Machado - Freddy Cepeda - Miguel Sarmiento Systemic risk in large value payments systems in Colombia: a network topology and payments simulation approach 267 Chapter 12 Horatiu Lovin - Andra Pineta Operational risk in ReGIS - a systemically important payment system 315 Chapter 13 Robert Oleschak - Thomas Nellen Does SIC need a heart pacemaker? 341 Chapter 14 Robert Arculus - Jennifer Hancock - Greg Moran The impact of payment system design on tiering incentives 379 Chapter 15 Martin Diehl - Uwe Schollmeyer Liquidity-saving mechanisms: quantifying the benefits in TARGET2 411 Chapter 16 Biliana Alexandrova-Kabadjova - Francisco Solís-Robleda The Mexican experience in how the settlement of large payments is performed in the presence of high volume of small payments 431
  • Paloviita, Maritta (2008)
    Suomen Pankki. E 40
    1 Introduction . 10 2 Alternative models for optimal price setting 16 2.1 Basic model with endogenous supply 17 2.2 Optimal price setting models . 21 2.2.1 Optimal price setting with fully flexible prices 21 2.2.2 Optimal non-overlapping price setting with nominal rigidities . 23 2.2.3 Optimal overlapping price setting with nominal rigidities . 26 3 Three Phillips curve relationships 28 3.1 The New Classical Phillips curve 29 3.2 The New Keynesian Phillips curve 31 3.3 The Hybrid Phillips curve 34 4 Related studies 36 5 Review of the articles 41 References 44
  • Kortelainen, Mika (2002)
    Suomen Pankki. E 23
    Mallin tärkeimpiin ominaisuuksiin kuuluvat Blanc-pääomavarallisuuden arvostaminen pääomatulojen nykyarvona, työmarkkinoiden limittäiset Calvo-sopimukset, ja neoklassinen tarjonta Cobb-Douglas hyötyfunktiolla.Mallin ensimmäinen ja toinen momentti kalibroidaan vastaamaan julkisesti saatavilla olevaa euroalueen dataa.Stokastisilla simuloinneilla tuotettu mallin ristikorrelaatiorakenne muistuttaa euroalueen datan ristikorrelaatiorakennetta.Mallin diagnostiset simulointitulokset ovat talousteoreettisesti luontevia.Heterogeenisten odotusten merkitystä rahapolitiikassa tarkastellaan erottamalla rahapolitiikkaa koskevat yksityisen sektorin ja keskuspankin odotukset toisistaan.Simulointitulokset osoittavat, että kun yksityisen sektorin odotukset poikkeavat keskuspankin odotuksista, talouteen aiheutuu reaalisia kustannuksia.Lisäksi osoitetaan, että nämä kustannukset ovat pienemmät, jos taloudessa on jokin oppimekanismi, joka poistaa erot eri agenttien odotuksissa. Havaitaan myös, että rahapolitiikkaan kohdistuvissa yleisön odotuksissa ilmenevät satunnaiset poikkeamat, joiden tulkitaan kuvaavan häiriöitä rahapolitiikan läpinäkyvyydessä, aiheuttavat kustannuksia vaihtelevuuden voimistumisen vuoksi.Tulokset osoittavat, että heterogeeniset rahapolitiikkaodotukset voivat aiheuttaa merkittäviä taloudellisia kustannuksia. Asiasanat: EDGE, rationaaliset odotukset, heterogeeniset odotukset, oppiminen, dynaaminen yleisen tasapainon malli
  • Topi, Jukka (2003)
    Suomen Pankki. E 24
    This study discusses the effects of financial intermediation, banks' moral hazard and monitoring on monetary policy transmission in a simple model where borrowers are dependent on loans granted by banks with superior monitoring skills.As distinct from the prior literature on monetary policy transmission, this study does not regard banks' deposit funding as a reason for their special role in the monetary transmission.Instead, we focus on banks' role in monitoring their loan customers as part of financial intermediation and on the effects of monitoring on monetary policy. We find that when the intensity of monitoring is endogenous banks acting as financial intermediaries with moral hazard problems respond less to monetary policy in lending than nonintermediary lenders that only lend their own capital without moral hazard problems.We also find that in the model the lending response of intermediary banks to monetary policy depends on the ratio of their own capital to the volume of lending.The finding is fairly insensitive to the market structure of the banking sector.In the case of a monopoly bank, an increase in the bank's capital-to-loans ratio always weakens the transmission of monetary policy to bank lending.In the case of competitive banks, an increase in the capital-to-loans ratio weakens the transmission of monetary policy to aggregate bank lending, up to a critical level. Using a data set covering the Finnish banking sector in 1995-2000, we also offer some tentative empirical evidence that is broadly consistent with the model.Banks with higher capital ratios tend to respond less to changes in monetary policy.Our conclusion is that the outcome of the model might be helpful in explaining the heterogeneity of banks' responses to monetary policy, which frequently observed in the empirical literature. Keywords: monetary policy transmission, monitoring, moral hazard, bank lending channel
  • Grönqvist, Charlotta (2009)
    Suomen Pankki. E 41
    Tiivistelmä 4 Acknowledgements 5 Introduction 9 Essay 1: The private value of patents by patent characteristics: evidence from Finland 43 Essay 2: Why does the private patent value differ by assignee? 61 Essay 3: Do the assignee's characteristics affect the private value of patents? 97 Essay 4: The optimal patent length is shorter than 18 years 131
  • Vauhkonen, Jukka (2004)
    Suomen Pankki. E 30
    This thesis consists of an introductory chapter and four essays on financial contracting theory.In the first essay, we argue that many adverse selection models of standard one-period loan contracts are not robust to changes in market structure.We argue that debt is not an optimal contract in these models, if there is only one (monopoly) financier instead of a large number of competitive financiers. In the second essay, we examine the welfare effects of allowing banks to hold equity in their borrowing firms.According to the agency cost literature, banks equity stakes in their borrowing firms would seem to alleviate firms asset substitution moral hazard problem associated with debt financing.We argue that this alleged benefit of banks equity holding is small or non-existent when banks are explicitly modelled as active monitors and firms have access also to market finance. In the third essay, we extend the well-known incomplete contracting model of Aghion and Bolton to attempt to explain the empirical observation that the allocation of control rights between entrepreneur and venture capitalist is often contingent in the following way.If the company s performance (eg earnings before taxes and interest) is bad, the venture capital firm obtains full control of the company.If company performance is medium, the entrepreneur retains or obtains more control rights.If company performance is good, the venture capitalist relinquishes most of his control rights. The fourth essay is a short note, in which we show that the main result of the model of Aghion and Bolton concerning optimality properties of contingent control allocations in an incomplete contracting environment holds only if an additional condition is satisfied. Key words: financial contracts, security design, capital structure, incomplete contracts
  • Railavo, Jukka (Edita Prima, 2006)
    Suomen Pankki. E 33
    Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) can be characterised as a complicated set of legislation and institutions governing monetary and fiscal responsibilities.The measures of fiscal responsibility are to be guided by the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), which sets rules for fiscal policy and makes a discretionary fiscal policy virtually impossible.To analyse the effects of the fiscal and monetary policy mix, we modified the New Keynesian framework to allow for supply effects of fiscal policy.We show that defining a supply-side channel for fiscal policy using an endogenous output gap changes the stabilising properties of monetary policy rules. The stability conditions are affected by fiscal policy, so that the dichotomy between active (passive) monetary policy and passive (active) fiscal policy as stabilising regimes does not hold, and it is possible to have an active monetary - active fiscal policy regime consistent with stability of the economy.We show that, if we take supply-side effects into account, we get more persistent inflation and output reactions.We also show that the dichotomy does not hold for a variety of different fiscal policy rules based on government debt and budget deficit, using the tax smoothing hypothesis and formulating the tax rules as difference equations. The debt rule with active monetary policy results in indeterminacy, while the deficit rule produces a determinate solution with active monetary policy, even with active fiscal policy.The combination of fiscal requirements in a rule results in cyclical responses to shocks.The amplitude of the cycle is larger with more weight on debt than on deficit.Combining optimised monetary policy with fiscal policy rules means that, under a discretionary monetary policy, the fiscal policy regime affects the size of the inflation bias.We also show that commitment to an optimal monetary policy not only corrects the inflation bias but also increases the persistence of output reactions.With fiscal policy rules based on the deficit we can retain the tax smoothing hypothesis also in a sticky price model. Keywords: inflation, fiscal policy, fiscal policy rules, optimalmonetary policy, policy coordination, stabilisation
  • Solanko, Laura (2006)
    Suomen Pankki. E 36
    This study comprises an introductory section and three essays analysing Russia's economic transition from the early 1990s up to the present.The papers present a combination of both theoretical and empirical analysis on some of the key issues Russia has faced during its somewhat troublesome transformation from state-controlled command economy to market-based economy. The first essay analyses fiscal competition for mobile capital between identical regions in a transition country.A standard tax competition framework is extended to account for two features of a transition economy: the presence of two sectors, old and new, which differ in productivity; and a non-benevolent regional decision-maker.It is shown that in very early phase of transition, when the old sector clearly dominates, consumers in a transition economy may be better off in a competitive equilibrium. Decision-makers, on the other hand, will prefer to coordinate their fiscal policies. The second essay uses annual data for 1992- 2003 to examine income dispersion and convergence across 76 Russian regions.Wide disparities in income levels have indeed emerged during the transition period.Dispersion has increased most among the initially better-off regions, whereas for the initially poorer regions no clear trend of divergence or convergence could be established.Further, some albeit not highly robust evidence was found of both unconditional and conditional convergence, especially among the initially richer regions.Finally, it is observed that there is much less evidence of convergence after the economic crisis of 1998. The third essay analyses industrial firms' engagement in provision of infrastructure services, such as heating, electricity and road maintenance.Using a unique dataset of 404 large and medium-sized industrial enterprises in 40 regions of Russia, the essay examines public infrastructure provision by Russian industrial enterprises. It is found that to a large degree engagement in infrastructure provision, as proxied by district heating production, is a Soviet legacy.Secondly, firms providing district heating to users outside their plant area are more likely to have close and multidimensional relations with the local public sector. Key words: Russia, transition, regional issues, tax competition, infrastructure
  • Freystätter, Hanna (2012)
    Suomen Pankki. E 43
    Chapter 1: Introduction 9 Chapter 2: Price setting behaviour in an open economy and the determination of Finnish foreign trade prices 29 Chapter 3: Financial market disturbances as sources of business cycle fluctuations in Finland 79 Chapter 4: Financial factors in the boom-bust episode in Finland in the late 1980s and early 1990s 127
  • Herrala, Risto (2012)
    Suomen Pankki. E 48
    Chapter 1 Introduction 11 Chapter 2 Reserve pools 23 Chapter 3 Public intervention and financial crises: an empirical study 43 Chapter 4 Credit conditions and durable consumption: evidence of a strong link 67 Chapter 5 The influence of bank ownership on credit supply: evidence from Russia's recent financial crisis 89 Chapter 6 Conclusions 109
  • Arola, Mika (2006)
    Suomen Pankki. E 37
    The main objective of the study is to evaluate the Finnish central government's foreign borrowing between the years 1862 and 1938. Most of this period was characterised by deep capital market integration that bears resemblance to the liberal world financial order at the turn of the millennium.The main aim is to analyse the credit risk associated with the state and its determination by evaluating the world financial market centres' perception of Finland.By doing this, the study is also expected to provide an additional dimension to Finland's political and economic history by incorporating into the research the assessments of international capital markets regarding Finland during a period that witnessed profound political and economic changes in Finnish society.The evaluation of the credit risk mainly relies on exchange-rate risk free time series of the state's foreign bonds.They have been collected from quotations in the stock exchanges in Helsinki, Hamburg, Paris and London.In addition, it investigates Finland's exposure to short-term debt and Moody's credit ratings assigned to Finland.The study emphasises the importance of the political risk. It suggests that the hey-day of the state's reliance on foreign capital markets took place during last few decades of the 19th century when Finland enjoyed a wide autonomy in the Russian Empire and prudently managed its economy, highlighted in Finland's adherence to the international gold standard.Political confrontations in Finland and, in particular, in Russia and the turbulence of the world financial system prevented the return of this beneficial position again.Through its issuance of foreign bonds the state was able to import substantial amounts of foreign capital, which was sorely needed to foster economic development in Finland.Moreover, the study argues that the state's presence in the western capital markets not only had economic benefits, but it also increased the international awareness of Finland's distinct and separate status in the Russian Empire and later underlined its position as an independent republic. Keywords: credit risk, government borrowing, financial market, government bonds, state finances JEL classification: E65, G15, H63, N13
  • Kasanen, Juha (1999)
    Suomen Pankki. E 16
    Vuoden 1997 lopussa pörssiyhtiöiden palveluksessa oli yhteensä noin 1500 ilmoitusvelvollista eli ns. sisäpiiriin kuuluvaa henkilöä. Ilmoitusvelvollisten kokonaisomistus vuoden 1997 päättyessä oli noin 2 % Helsingin Pörssin markkina-arvosta.Ilmoitusvelvolliset omistavat pienten pörssiyhtiöiden osakkeita sekä markkamääräisesti että yhtiöiden markkina-arvoon suhteutettuna selvästi enemmän kuin suurten.Määräysvaltayhteisöt ovat omistajina keskeisessä asemassa. Niiden omistukset ovat suurempia kuin yksityishenkilöiden, ja niiden osakekaupankäynti on myös vilkkaampaa. Tutkimuksessa analysoidaan ekonometrisessa kirjallisuudessa yleisesti käytetyllä tapahtumatutkimustekniikalla (event study) pörssiyhtiöiden ilmoitusvelvollisten eli ns. sisäpiirin osakekauppaa Helsingin Pörssissä.Lähtökohtana on vastata kysymykseen, ajoittavatko pörssiyhtiöiden palveluksessa olevat ilmoitusvelvolliset osakekauppansa paremmin kuin sijoittajat keskimäärin.Tutkimuksessa analysoitiin Helsingin Pörssissä 1.8.1996-31.12.1997 toteutetut ilmoitusvelvollisten ja heidän määräysvaltayhteisöjensä osakekaupat.Ilmoitusvelvollisten osakekauppojen yhteisarvo tutkimusaikavälillä oli noin 1,6 mrd. mk ja yksittäisten kauppojen lukumäärä noin 2 000.Tulosten mukaan ilmoitusvelvollisten tekemät osakekaupat ovat satunnaisesti jakautuneita osakkeiden tuottojen suhteen eikä osakkeiden tuottojen ja ilmoitusvelvollisten kauppojen välillä ollut havaittavissa kausaliteettia.Ilmoitusvelvollisten kauppojen ajoitus ei tilastollisesti poikennut normaalista.Tulos on samansuuntainen kuin ulkomaisten pörssien aineistolla saadut uusimmat tutkimustulokset.Tulosten varmistamiseksi tutkimuksessa tehty ylituottoanalyysi toteutettiin usealla eri laskentamenetelmällä. Useasta ulkomaisesta tutkimuksesta poiketen se toteutettiin myös yhtiökohtaisesti.Eri menetelmien antamat lopputulokset olivat pitkälti yhteneviä.Näyttäisi ilmeiseltä, että ilmoitusvelvollisten osakekaupat Helsingin Pörssissä eivät ole kokonaisuutena merkittävä ilmiö osakemarkkinoiden luotettavuuden tai uskottavuuden kannalta. Tulokset eivät sulje pois yksittäisten väärinkäytösten mahdollisuutta. Asiasanat: sisäpiiri, sisäpiirin kauppa, sisäpiirikauppa, ilmoitusvelvollinen, ilmoitusvelvollisten osakekauppa