Browsing by Author "Sutela, Pekka"

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  • Sutela, Pekka (1995)
  • Sutela, Pekka (1992)
  • Sutela, Pekka (2002)
    BOFIT Online 8/2002
    Contrary to most experience, Estonia (as well as Latvia and Lithuania) has been able to combine, for a number of years, fixed exchange rates, financial liberalisation (prior to proper supervision) and large current account deficits without inviting speculation using large capital flows as vehicles.The standard argument is that this must be due to exceptionally sound fundamentals and great policy credibility.Without challenging this argument either generally or for the case of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, this paper offers a supplementary perspective.These countries did not aim at developing a full-scale national economy with a full set of financial and other markets, as they had the possibility of joining an institutionally, culturally and geographically close set of North-Western European markets.Such a strategy goes further than having the goal of "rejoining Europe" as the external policy anchor.Having well-developed domestic markets can in some cases be substituted by accessing near-by markets, thus leaving little leeway to potentially unstable capital flows.This option, however, is not open to all, and it also has its downside. Key words: capital flows, exchange rate systems, institutional development, financial liberalisation, Baltic countries
  • Sutela, Pekka (2005)
    BOFIT Online 6/2005
    Establishing connections between economic performance and policies, institutions and exogenous change is difficult under any circumstances.In the case of Russia, where relevant time series are short and structural and institutional change has occurred in the absence of a well-defined model of the economy, it becomes largely - if not entirely - a matter of art and taste.This paper considers the possible impacts of structural reform under President Putin on Russian economic performance.Judging the impact of Putin's reforms on recent Russian economic performance is confounded by the problem of overdetermination.That is, we can identify a number of contributing factors, but cannot say for sure if their absence would have a crucial effect on outcomes.On the other hand, there seem to be no grounds for denying the importance of reforms, even if their short-term impact might primarily be through expectations, a factor notoriously difficult to pinpoint. Further, it is a matter of some delight that, contrary to what is currently all too easily and often argued, Russia's structural reforms continue.Key words: Russia, economic policy, reforms, growth
  • Sutela, Pekka (1995)
  • Sutela, Pekka (2005)
    BOFIT Online 2005/3
    Russia is, with the exception of the USA, the single most important outside country for the European Union.Still, it just account for a few percentage points of EU global trade, even less of EU outward investment.The Union, on the other hand, accounts for about one half of Russia's foreign trade.The relation therefore is, though important, asymmetric. Institutionally the Union and Russia have been building their relation since the 1990´s, but development was much enhanced by the northern and eastern enlargements of the Union on the one hand, and by Russia´s "European Choice" as declared by President Putin. Still, developing the relation has not been simple, and in many instances this is caused by the underlying asymmetries of the relation.This paper outlines both the institutional and underlying economic basis of the relation and argues that it will remain a complicated one in the future as well. Key words: European Union; European Neighbourhood Policy; Russia/EU relations.
  • Lainela, Seija; Sutela, Pekka (2004)
    BOFIT Online 2/2004
    The main resource base for EU's Russia-policies has been and remains the Tacis programme, which provides technical assistance to former Soviet Union republics.The birth of Tacis was a response to the tremendous political change that was taking place in the Soviet Union and its successor states in the early 1990s.At that time those developments could be seen as a possible threat to the stability and security in Europe.Hence, the grand aims of Tacis were - and still are - to (a) foster political stability and democracy, (b) to enhance economic growth in the countries close to the EU and on the Asian continent, (c) to further their relations with the EU, and (d) to tie them to the European system of values. During the more than 10 years that the EU has been running the Tacis programme in Russia, the circumstances have changed radically.By 2004 Russia has emerged as a relatively stable society and a growing economy, especially when compared with the 1990s.It has been given a seat among the main industrial powers. The Eastern Enlargement of the EU will make the common border between the Union and Russia, earlier limited to some 1300 kilometres in Finland, much longer.Hence, there is obvious need for rethinking the role and rationale of the Tacis concept in Russia.This is especially so because the current EU country strategy vis-à-vis Russia and the general EU regulation on Tacis both extend to 2006 only.This is the appropriate time for reconsideration.Furthermore, the effectiveness of Tacis assistance suffers from problems that warrant active measures.Not only has the world changed; there is also the need to learn from experience. Reconsideration is also needed because of changes in the other CIS-countries.After the EU enlargement, two CIS countries - Belarus and Ukraine - will become EU neighbours.A little later Moldova will join them.It is also highly probable that they will successfully claim the status of potential accession candidates in due time.The needs for co-operation with these New Neighbours will differ from those of Russia.A third set of countries is those in the Caucasus and Central Asia.The problems there are mostly those of poverty alleviation and conflict resolution.A few of these countries however have European aspirations that have to be respected.Quite evidently, separate approaches are needed for these three groups of countries instead of a common Tacis.This article reviews the Tacis programme in Russia, both in the framework of EU's external assistance in general and in the framework of the EU-Russia relationship.It aims to assess the effectiveness of the programme from the donor's and the recipient's point of view and provides notions on the future of Tacis in Russia.
  • Sutela, Pekka (2001)
    BOFIT Online 11/2001
    Sisällysluettelo: 1 The background 5 2 Aspects of the relation 9 2.1 The Northern Dimension 9 2.2 Economic Relations 13 2.3 Policies on Near-By Areas 20 2.4 Environmental Co-operation 20 2.5 Security: selected aspects 213 Conlusions 23 Sources 24
  • Sutela, Pekka (2005)
    BOFIT Online 2005/7
    Trade with the USSR accounted for about 15 per cent of Finland's total exports in 1952-1990, peaking at more than a quarter in the early-to-mid 1980s.Such trade is routinely seen to have had a major beneficial impact on the Finnish economy, whether in terms of profitability, diversification or stability.At the same time, trade with the USSR is seen to have had a major negative impact on the economies of the Central European member countries of the CMEA. This paper discusses this paradox, looking at both the institutional arrangements of Finnish - Soviet trade and the available analytical evidence.Much research, however, still remains to be done. Key words: Finland - economic development, East - West trade, bilateralism, clearing.
  • Sutela, Pekka (1995)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 69 ; 2 ; February
  • Sutela, Pekka (1994)
  • Sutela, Pekka (1998)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 72 ; 5 ; May
  • Sutela, Pekka (1994)
  • Sutela, Pekka (1993)
  • Sutela, Pekka (1993)
  • Sutela, Pekka (2005)
    Venäjän viime vuosien kasvun arvellaan perustuneen puoliksi öljyn hinnan kalleuteen ja tuotannon lisäämiseen.Toinen puoli kasvusta selittyy vastuullisella talouspolitiikalla, ruplan hintakilpailukyvyllä, institutionaalisilla muutoksilla ja toipumisella menneiden vuosien kriiseistä.Kasvun äkillistä supistumista ei ole näkyvissä, mutta riskejäkin kasvuun liittyy.
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Koivu, Tuuli; Mattlin, Mikael; Mehrotra, Aaron; Rautava, Jouko; Sutela, Pekka (2008)
    BOFIT Online 8/2008
    Suomen Pankin Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos (BOFIT) järjesti marraskuussa 2008 Kiinan taloutta koskevan tietoiskun, jossa BOFITin tutkijat esittelivät näkemyksiään Kiinan talouden eri lohkoilta. Tässä julkaisussa olevat artikkelit perustuvat tietoiskussa pidettyihin esityksiin. Ensimmäinen artikkeli käsittelee Kiinan asemaa maailmantaloutta kurittavan kriisin keskellä, tehtyjen talouspolitiikkatoimien vaikuttavuutta ja lyhyen aikavälin kasvunäkymiä. Toisessa kirjoituksessa keskitytään talouspoliittisessa keskustelussa tärkeällä sijalla olleeseen hinta- ja kustannuskehitykseen. Seuraava artikkeli käsittelee Kiinan roolia maailmantaloudessa ja raaka-ainekaupassa. Neljäs artikkeli pohtii sitä, miten valtion rooli on muuttumassa Kiinan taloudessa. Kaksi viimeistä kirjoitusta keskittyvät Kiinan pitkän aikavälin kasvukysymyksiin sekä Suomen, Venäjän ja Kiinan välisiin taloussuhteisiin. Avainsanat: Kiina, talouskehitys, talouspolitiikka, inflaatio, raaka-aineet, pitkän aikavälin kasvu
  • Juurikkala, Tuuli; Korhonen, Vesa; Ollus, Simon-Erik; Sutela, Pekka; Tekoniemi, Merja (2006)
    BOFIT Online 2/2006
    Mikä on Venäjän paino ja minkälainen toimija Venäjä on maailmantaloudessa?Miksi Venäjän talous kasvaa niin nopeasti ja onko nykyinen talouskasvu kestävällä pohjalla?Näkyykö monia vuosia jatkunut talouskasvu Venäjän alueilla?Entä kehittyvätkö rahoitus- ja pankkisektori?Oheiset artikkelit valottavat näitä Venäjän talouskehityksen kannalta keskeisiä kysymyksiä.Viimeinen artikkeli käsittelee Ukrainan talouden keskeisiä haasteita vuonna 2006. Artikkelit perustuvat BOFIT:in ekonomistien alustuksiin Venäjä tietoiskuussa Helsingissä 8.5.2006. Asiasanat: Venäjä, maailmantalous, talouskasvu, aluetalous, rahamarkkinat, pankkisektori
  • Sutela, Pekka (2001)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2001
    The three Baltic countries have been able to combine, Estonia since 1992 and Latvia and Lithuania since 1994, (1) a fixed exchange rate, (2) liberalisation of the capital account before having a well-functioning and fully supervised financial system, and (3) very large current account deficits.At the same time they have gone through deep structural and institutional change, which has been even faster than in several other transition economies.How have they been able to manage such a combination of characteristics that would usually be regarded inconsistent? The answer is not in clever management or control of financial markets combined with sound fundamentals.Rather, the Baltic countries have lacked several such markets that might be sources of instability.There are hardly any inter-bank markets.Public debt is absent or relatively very small.After the boomlet of 1997, the Baltic stock exchanges have generally hibernated.Banking crises have been recurrent.Not only are these economies extremely small, their degree of monetisation is very low.There are very few assets and markets for speculative capital flows. Partially, this reflects sound fundamentals, but mostly it is an unintended consequence of policy decisions.One cannot expect the experience to be easily repeated in other countries. Key words: the Baltic countries, capital flows and controls, financial crises, currency boards
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Lainela, Seija; Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura; Sutela, Pekka (2008)
    BOFIT Online 5/2008
    Tiivistelmä 3 Putinin kauden perintö 4 Pekka Sutela Kansalliset ohjelmat 11 Seija Lainela Saadaanko venäjän inflaatio kuriin? 17 Iikka Korhonen Suomen ja Venäjän välisen kaupan kehitys 23 Heli Simola Vapautuvatko kotimaiset energianhinnat? 29 Laura Solanko Medvedevin talouspoliittiset linjaukset 36 Pekka Sutela