Browsing by Subject "Ukraine"

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  • Rautava, Jouko (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 1/2014
    The activities of Russian troops in Crimea in late February - early March is not exercising the minds only of those interested in foreign policy and security issues; the events also have implications for the Russian economy. This memorandum seeks to assess the impact of the 'Crimea weekend' on Russia's macroeconomic developments. The assessment is based on calculations conducted using BOFIT's Russia model.
  • Korhonen, Iikka (2022)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    In the early morning of February 24 Russian military invaded Ukraine after a long buildup of forces around the country and in the two imaginary people’s republics. This violation of international law will result in widespread human suffering and economic dislocation. While Ukraine will bear the heaviest cost of the attack, economic costs for Russia will also be extremely large, even before any sanctions have been announced.
  • Faryna, Oleksandr (2016)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2016
    ​This paper studies exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Ukraine and Russia considering cross-country linkage and spillover effects. We relax the assumption of “isolated islands” and employ a bilateral panel VAR (BPVAR) approach to estimate a pass-through effect from the ruble to hryvnia exchange rate (UAH/RUB) movements, taking into account cross-unit hetero-geneities as well as dynamic and static interdependencies. We then compare BPVAR estimates with those from individual VAR models and find that, while results for Russia do not change significantly, spillover effects are identified for Ukraine. In particular, ruble depreciation (e.g. hryvnia appreciation) results in increasing Ukrainian prices instead of declining as suggested by individual VAR analysis. We also estimate alternative BPVAR including hryvnia and ruble ex-change rates with respect to the US dollar and find that prices in Ukraine respond to changes in USD/RUB to a larger extent than to UAH/USD.
  • Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 5/2014
    Ukraine is afraid of Russia cutting off its gas supplies if it cannot pay the higher price demanded by Gazprom. However, the situation is not an easy one for Gazprom, either, Ukraine being one of its largest customers and an important transit route to European customers. Most EU countries would be unlikely to face major difficulties from possible short-term disruptions in the availability of gas imports. Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, energy
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso (2022)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    A month ago, during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing, China and Russia declared that the friendship between them has “no limits” and that there are “no forbidden areas of cooperation”. A few weeks later, Russia attacked Ukraine. A majority of countries around the world have condemned the illegal invasion. Perhaps as a demonstration of the “no limits” friendship, China has refused to condemn Russia and instead has even shown some understanding of its actions.
  • Bank of Finland (2022)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Analysis
    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has cast a new veil of gloom over the outlook for Finland’s economy. There is considerable uncertainty over the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, because the extent and duration of the war are not yet known, and neither do we know what economic policy measures will be taken to alleviate the economic effects. Amid this high uncertainty it is nevertheless possible to get an idea of the outlook for the economy by examining different scenarios. In the two scenarios presented here, the war in Ukraine will slow Finland’s GDP growth and increase inflation. In the current year, growth will slow to between 0.5% and 2%. The economic impact will be prolonged if it takes time to find replacements for the lost Russian market.
  • Fidrmuc, Jarko; Moroz, Serhiy; Reck, Fabian (2020)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2020
    Published in Empirica 48, 645-660 (2021)
    This paper analyzes the impact of ethnic heterogeneity and military conflict on the degree of regional consumption risk-sharing in Ukraine. Ethnicity and violent conflicts can influence risk-sharing e.g. through social capital, ethnic fractionalization, migration, and remittances. The sample consists of 25 Ukrainian oblasts and covers the highly volatile period from 2003 to 2016. Our results suggest that the degree of consumption risk-sharing is comparably high; between 70 and 80 percent on average. Moreover, consumption risk-sharing is significantly higher in the regions with a large Russian minority, which are enjoying special treatment by Russia. By contrast, the degree of financial development, as proxied by deposit and loan share in GRP, does not significantly affect the regional degree of consumption risk-sharing. Furthermore, we apply spatial models to control for spatial dependence across regions. Results are confirmed and it is shown that spatial correlation is important. Finally, we show that the recent geopolitical conflict in east Ukraine changed the regional degree of consumption risk-sharing.
  • Solanko, Laura (2022)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    We live in unprecedented times, as many things that seemed impossible six weeks ago have become reality. The acute crisis is first and foremost humanitarian. Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine is bringing unimaginable destruction to the lives of Ukrainians as well as to Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine urgently needs our assistance, in many forms. At the same time, however, we need to understand how the war affects the Russian economy.
  • Barisitz, Stephan; Fungáčová, Zuzana (2015)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 3/2015
    The situation of banks in Ukraine is exceptionally challenging for a number of reasons: They have not managed to recover from the 2008–2009 crisis before being hit again in 2014. The deep Ukrainian recession and the plunge of the hryvnia together with strong exposure to geopolitical tensions tipped the banking sector again deeply into the red and created an environment of persistent uncertainty. Many foreign-owned banks have left the country. In addition to chronic structural shortcomings like weak rule of law and protection of creditor rights or excessively high corruption and opaque ownership structures;the most significant problems that are currently plaguing the sector include high and growing credit risk and high exchange rate risk. The country is subject to a dramatic credit crunch and to even larger deposit outflows. Financial intermediation has practically collapsed. The number of insolvent banks is quickly rising. The major shock-absorbing factor is the IMF’s and the international community’s ongoing commitment to financially assist Ukraine.
  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Korhonen, Iikka (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 10/2014
    This paper describes the main characteristics of Ukraine's banking sector in the current difficult political and economic situation. We include shifts in the banking sector's size and structure since the 2008 global financial crisis, a brief assessment of Ukraine's fragile macroeconomic situation, and commentary on recent developments in the banking sector.